DAY 272 OF THE WAR: Three Soldiers Killed, Heavy Bombardment From Lebanon, Possible Breakthrough in Hostage Talks, Settlers Riot in West Bank

Tel Aviv Diary, July 4, 2024

This morning began, once again, with the terrible— “Hutar le’pirsum,” signaling the loss of another soldier in combat. This soldier was Captain Roy Miller (21), who died in an encounter with Hamas terrorists in the Shuja'iyya neighborhood of Gaza City. In the same incident, three other members of his squad were also wounded.

Captain Miller's firefight occurred while he was attempting to clear a building, just hours after Captain Elay Elisha Lugaski (21), a tank commander, was killed a few hundred meters away when a terrorist managed to approach his tank and fired an anti-tank missile at it last night. Tonight, it was announced that another soldier had been killed in Shuja'iyya. First Sergeant Eyal Mimran, (20), fell in battle when a terrorist emerged from a tunnel in a building he was clearing.

Since the maneuver in the area began a week ago, the army has killed an estimated 80 terrorists and discovered 2 kilometers of previously unknown tunnels.

A few weeks ago, a report indicated that despite all of our tactical successes in Gaza, Hamas is satisfied with the current situation, which leaves our troops exposed and vulnerable to attack. One of the major reasons we unilaterally withdrew from Gaza during the disengagement in 2005 was the high cost to our soldiers. The same was true regarding our withdrawal from South Lebanon. In both locations, our troops faced regular attacks, exacting a heavy toll. Now, with our soldiers back in Gaza, they become targets for any terrorist emerging from a tunnel— many of which we still have not found.

Meanwhile, some Likud MKs who are not ministers are calling for the Army to take direct control of Gaza, arguing that this is the only way to defeat Hamas effectively. While this strategy might be the right or even most successful approach, there are two minor problems to consider. First, we lack the troops to occupy all of Gaza. Although we had previously controlled portions of Gaza, it was problematic even then. For example, back in 1980, when I spent a summer stationed in Gaza, a bomb exploded under one of our armored cars.

The second problem is that the international community would never accept us reoccupying Gaza. Furthermore, the specific Likud MK who proposed Israel take control of Gaza during a TV interview placed blame on the IDF Chief of Staff for not fully reoccupying Gaza, calling for his replacement. He and others placed the blame squarely on the Chief of Staff of the Army, absolving Prime Minister Netanyahu of any responsibility. When another guest in the studio brought up the fact that the right-wing parties and Prime Minister Netanyahu have been in charge for the last 15 years, the Likud MK responded by blaming the Rabin administration and the Oslo Accords for our problems in Gaza.

THE NORTH

At 10 AM this morning, my watch began buzzing incessantly, a scenario I had anticipated. Yesterday, we had assassinated one of the Hezbollah leaders. Last time we killed a similarly high-ranking Hezbollah commander, Hezbollah responded by firing 200 projectiles at Israel. Yesterday evening, they launched 100 projectiles at Northern Israel. Although we hoped that last night’s barrage would conclude their retaliation, that was not the case. This morning, Hezbollah fired between 150-200 rockets and missiles across broad areas of Northern Israel, along with 20 suicide drones. Tragically, one of the rockets directly hit an army base on the Golan Heights, killing Major (res.) Itay Galea, (37), who was the 12th IDF casualty this week. Hezbollah’s massive barrages caused limited damages but ignited several fires throughout northern Israel on a scorching and dry day, with some fires still blazing as of this evening

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HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS

The Head of the Mossad has been tasked with leading the Israeli delegation to negotiate a ceasefire and hostage deal. For the first time, there is a sense of optimism among those involved, as Hamas is no longer demanding a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza during the initial stage of the ceasefire. This phase will last 48 days and result in the return of up to 36 hostages, some of whom may not be alive. Negotiations for the next stage, which is supposed to lead to a final ceasefire and the release of the remaining hostages, would start on the 16th day. One significant sticking point is the course of action in the event that the sides fail to reach an agreement— Hamas wants the ceasefire to continue, while Israel prefers the option to resume fighting.

A major question looms over the negotiations concerning what action Prime Minister Netanyahu will take. Speaking to Channel 13's Moriah Assraf-Goldberg, one of the professionals involved in the negotiations remarked:

From our perspective, we can reach an agreement; it’s up to Netanyahu. If he wants to sabotage the deal, it’s always possible to do so. The challenge here is to save lives versus political considerations.”

The negotiator went on to say,

In the proposal that was presented, there is a very significant compromise by Hamas on the question of ending the war at the first stage. We can go forward with negotiations. We have a realistic deal to make happen. Some of the details will be difficult, but this should not stop a deal from happening.

The truth is that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have explicitly stated that they will bring down the government if it agrees to a deal that includes the release of prisoners who have committed violent acts (i.e., with blood on their hands), which effectively means any deal at all.

That being said, I am cautiously optimistic. I see two potential scenarios: Firstly, Netanyahu might conclude his government is likely to fall anyway due to the issues surrounding the ultra-Orthodox draft, making him more inclined to proceed with the deal. Secondly, Netanyahu might slow-walk the discussions, aiming to reach an agreement only at the end of the month—i.e., after the Knesset session is over.

The above scenarios align with rumors that circulated a few weeks ago, suggesting Netanyahu might say something positive about the possibility of a future Palestinian state while visiting Washington. Even rumors of Netanyahu planning to deliver a positive statement regarding the future of a Palestinian state might have facilitated his meeting with Biden. They could potentially lead to a larger deal with Saudi Arabia.

It may be a stretch, but I believe Netanyahu hopes the Knesset will dissolve at the beginning of the next session at the end of October. By then, he aims to have brought the hostages home and possibly achieved a deal with Saudi Arabia, which he believes could help him win re-election. It’s a long shot, but…

Captain Elay Lugasi

Tonight, as is customary, the TV news broadcasted the funerals of the fallen soldiers. The funeral of Captain Elay Lugasi from Kiryat Shemona was especially heart-wrenching to watch. It was held at Kibbutz Ayelet Hashachar since Kiryat Shemona (Lugasi’s hometown) is a closed military zone. It was impossibly painful watching his mother, a single parent, speak about how her son persuaded her to sign the consent form for him to join a combat unit. In the Israeli Army, only children are required to receive parental approval to serve in a combat unit.

The anguish evident in this mother’s face was too overwhelming to watch. For this reason, in my time, I never asked my parents to sign. Interestingly, while parental consent is required to serve in a combat unit during regular service, it is not needed for reserve duty. I did serve in a combat unit during my reserve duty. In any case, the cumulative pain gets increasingly harder to bear as the war continues. To date, 679 service members have now fallen during the course of the war, including 13 this week alone.

Traditionally, a government representative is expected to attend every military funeral. However, in a particularly infuriating report, Channel 13 revealed tonight that the Cabinet Secretary has struggled to find representatives from among the 37 cabinet ministers willing to attend these funerals. Consequently, many funerals have taken place without any government presence.

WEST BANK

The most militant settlers remain unchecked in the West Bank. Tonight, Doron Kadosh, the military correspondent for Army Radio, broadcast the following report:

A short while ago, near the Givat Assaf junction in Binyamin (the area of the evacuation of the Tzur Harel outpost), about ten Jewish rioters threw stones at an IDF force stationed there.

At the Shavei Shomron junction near Nablus, Jewish rioters attacked Palestinian vehicles and threw stones at them. Damage was caused to many Palestinian vehicles, and a Palestinian girl was injured. An IDF force was dispatched to the scene.

Security officials told Galatz (Army Radio): “The situation is heating up. The rioters are being encouraged by politicians, the SJ (Samaria and Judea) District Police are not functioning in the area – and this is the result.”

Even tonight, it should be noted that, so far, no political figure responsible for the security system has condemned the riots, and the throwing of stones and Molotov cocktails at IDF and Border Police officers and soldiers during yesterday’s evacuation of the outpost in Binyamin. Not Prime Minister Netanyahu, not Defense Minister Gallant, nor the Minister in the Defense Ministry, Smotrich.

TAUB REPORT: HEAT IN ISRAEL

Since the 1940s, the average temperature in Israel has risen by about 1.6 degrees Celsius.

Temperature increases and exposure to intense heat impact health in a variety of ways, both direct and indirect. They start by exacerbating pre-existing health conditions and increasing the risk of death. These conditions also impair the ability to spend time or engage in physical activities outside.

This means an increased danger of seizures and heat stroke during outdoor activities. In addition, the number of stations that measured a heat burden of immediate danger (risk of heat stroke during periods spent outdoors) rose from 1% in the 1950s to 4% during the last decade.

As a rule, the level of risk from heat burden is higher in urban areas due to the creation of urban heat islands. The major cause of these are a need for more ventilation, building and road paving materials, and the ratio of building cover to vegetation. These factors can be changed to improve our abilities to adapt to climate change. With this, the risk level is also dependent on other factors related to the building quality, including things like weatherproofing of buildings, access to electricity and air-conditioning, and the ability of the population to afford electricity costs.

In the graph, a 40% increase in the number of meteorological stations in Israel that have measured a heat burden categorized as extreme caution by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been noted.

ECONOMY

The average wage in the economy decreased by about 1,000 shekels over the last two months. In May, it stood at 13,093 shekels, a 3.1% drop from 13,506 shekels in April and a 7% decrease from the all-time high of 14,083 shekels set last March. This is according to a flash estimate of the average wage in the economy for May and the average wage data for previous months published today by the Central Bureau of Statistics.

At the same time, the average wage in the high-tech sector decreased significantly by 10.9%, from the all-time high of 35,870 shekels set in March to 31,976 shekels in April. Nevertheless, this still represents a high level, standing at 7.9% more than in April 2023 (29,624 shekels). The average wage for a computer programmer was 32,737 shekels in April, while the average wage for scientific research and development personnel was 34,380 shekels.

BUSINESS

The startup company CogniFiber, which develops photonic computing technology, announced the completion of a $5 million funding round led by the Chartered Group and Eastern Epic Capital funds. The company was founded in 2018 by Prof. Zeev Zalevsky (CTO), Dr. Eyal Cohen (CEO), and Keren Levy (who left the company in 2020), based on technologies developed at Bar-Ilan University and the Hebrew University. CogniFiber employs 13 workers and has raised a total of $13.3 million to date, along with an additional $700,000 from the Israel Innovation Authority.

CogniFiber operates in the field of photonic computing, also known as optical computing. Unlike a regular electronic processor, a photonic processor is based on photons' properties (light particles). Cohen explained that the technology uses optical fibers, where a regular fiber is used for data transmission, but CogniFiber transforms the fiber into a processor capable of performing rapid calculations. One of this technology's standout advantages is its low energy consumption.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Mass Immigration of Soviet Jews to Israel

The significant rise in Jewish immigration from the Soviet Union to Israel in 1990 can be largely attributed to changes in Soviet policies under Mikhail Gorbachev's leadership. Gorbachev's policies of Glasnost and Perestroika led to greater freedom of emigration, a stark contrast to the stringent restrictions previously imposed on Jews. From 1989 to the mid-1990s, over a million Jews and their family members emigrated from the Soviet Union to Israel, with around 185,000 Soviet Jews making Aliyah in 1990 alone. This massive influx was facilitated by the fall of the Iron Curtain, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and Israel's Law of Return.

The wave of Soviet immigration brought significant human capital to Israel. Approximately 70% of immigrants from the former Soviet Union were employed before emigrating, and this trend continued in Israel. The country benefitted from a surge of highly educated professionals, including engineers, technicians, teachers, scientists, and medical professionals. More than 60% of former Soviet immigrants of the relevant age had received higher education, compared to the then-national Israeli average of 40%. This influx of skilled labor substantially contributed to Israel's labor force, especially in professional sectors.

The impact of the Soviet mass immigration on Israel's economy and development was profound. Many Israelis attribute the "technological revolution" of the 1990s, the rapid growth of GDP, and the impressive expansion of the hi-tech industry to this wave of immigration. By the decade's end, Israel had emerged as a developed, post-industrial country. The contribution of former Soviet Jews as a socio-demographic group was significant, with immigrants composing 30% of all engineers and even higher percentages in specific fields like electrical and electronic engineering.

The benefits of this migration were mutual. Jews who immigrated to Israel escaped the dramatic reduction in fertility characteristic of the former Soviet population and experienced a considerable rise in life expectancy. The total fertility rate among former Soviet Jewish immigrants in Israel was twice that of Jews in the former Soviet Union and approached the level of non-religious Israeli Jews. By the end of 2004, about 1.6 million "core" Jews worldwide originated from the former Soviet Union, with approximately half living in Israel. This immigration not only spurred Israel's economic and developmental strides but also markedly improved the demographic and social circumstances of the immigrants themselves.