DAY 260 OF THE WAR: Three Israeli Soldiers Killed, Three Important Public Opinion Polls, Netanyahu's Statement Continues to Make Waves

Tel Aviv Diary, June 22, 2024

Friday morning, we woke up with the terrible news: “Hutar le’pirsum” — which literally means “authorized, or released for publication” and almost always signifies the death of soldiers. In this case, two soldiers were killed when a mortar shell struck them in the Northern Gaza Strip corridor, currently held by the IDF. The fallen soldiers were identified as Sgt. First Class (res.) Omer Smadga (25), of the Alexandroni Brigade’s 9203rd Battalion, from Genot Hadar, and Sgt. First Class (res.) Saadia Yaakov Deri (27), also of the Alexandroni Brigade’s 9203rd Battalion, from Tel Aviv.

Tonight, it was announced that Sergeant First Class (res.) Malkia Gross (25) from Sussia, a member of Tank Battalion 9212 was killed in Southern Gaza today.

Early this morning, Amnon Muchtar from Petah Tikva, who was shopping in Qalqilya in the West Bank, was shot by a terrorist. Word reached Israeli forces of what had taken place and the IDF’s Coordination and Liaison Directorate immediately contacted Palestinian security forces to arrange for the man’s evacuation. The Palestinian Red Crescent initially treated the civilian at a government hospital in Qalqilya before transferring him to Israeli territory, where Magen David Adom personnel pronounced him dead. IDF forces have since entered Qalqilya to investigate the incident.

This afternoon, the IDF conducted two targeted airstrikes. The first strike occurred in Northern Lebanon, targeting Ayman Ghatma. The Army reported that Ghatma was killed in the attack. According to the IDF, Ghatma was responsible for supplying weapons to Hamas in Lebanon, as well as to the al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya terror group.

The second airstrike took place in Gaza, where the IAF attacked an apartment complex in Gaza City. The objective was to eliminate of Raad Saad, Hamas Chief of Operations in Gaza. At the time of publishing today's diary update, it's unclear whether Saad was indeed killed.

THE NORTH

There were only two missile strikes from Lebanon into Israel today; one set at Manara and a second pair at Metula. Both caused damage to property, but no one was hurt.  Yesterday was also relatively quiet.

FALLOUT FROM NETANYAHU’S STATEMENT

Netanyahu's video regarding American support to Israel continues to create waves, and the American Administration still seems perplexed as to why he released it. Here is a portion of my appearance yesterday on i24News discussing this story:

Tonight, the Likud Chairman of the Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee, Yuli Edelstein, stated: “ I was surprised by Netanyahu’s video against the American administration; this is not the way to act.”

HOSTAGE FAMILIES/ DEMONSTRATIONS

Many families of the hostages have given up on Prime Minister Netanyahu. In a statement they released this evening, they stated: “They are dying in captivity because Netanyahu does not want a deal. He knows that if they return, he goes.”

Tonight, the weekly demonstrations took place in Tel Aviv.  The demonstration calling for new elections was the largest one since October 7th.

THREE PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS

Three interesting surveys have been released in the past few days, with some presenting encouraging results and others being quite discouraging.

A Channel 12 poll asked Israelis to share their opinion on the functioning of the Israeli leadership in this war:

Yoav Gallant is Defense Minister, Herzi Halevi is the IDF Chief of Staff, and Daniel Hagari is the Army Spokesman. This survey indicates that despite repeated attacks from certain factions within the government, the IDF maintains the respect and support of the Israeli people. After all, it is the only institution preventing Israel’s destruction. The Israeli people are not buying attempts by Netanyahu and others to blame the Army for their own failings.

A second survey, conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Institute in Israel, polled Arab Israelis. One of the poll’s results indicated that due to the prolonged war 51.6% feel a sense of shared destiny with Jewish Israelis.

When asked who should run Gaza after the war, 58.5% of Arab Israeli respondents believed that Palestinians should govern the area. Within this group, 24.4% preferred local bodies from Gaza take charge, 19.4% supported governance by the Palestinian Authority, and 14.7% favored Hamas.

On the other hand, 34.4% of Arab Israeli respondents thought an external non-Palestinian body should manage Gaza. Of these, 19.4% favored an international force, 8.4% preferred Israel, and 6.5% supported a coalition of Arab states.

Regarding the conflict's impact on the personal lives of Arab Israelis, 67.8% of respondents now report being in a relatively good economic situation, a significant improvement from the early days of the war. In November, 64.9% had said their finances were negatively affected by the conflict.

However, a third, and much more depressing article and accompanying survey was conducted by the Brookings Institution, revealing a profound sense of gloom about the ‘day after’ the Gaza war pervasive among Mideast scholars.

The most illuminating question in the survey is:

Q: What do you think is Israel’s PRIMARY goal in Gaza?

• Make Gaza uninhabitable so as to force Palestinians out: 57%

• Destroy Hamas: 15%

• To keep the Israeli government in power: 15%

• Sustain occupation of Gaza and its population: 6%

• Deter attacks by its enemies: 3%

• Other: 2%

• I don’t know: 1%

• Create conditions for a two-state solution: 0%

     Source: Middle East Scholar Barometer

Note: Fielded May 23-June 6, 2024 online using the University of Maryland’s Qualtrics platform with 758 responses.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/gloom-about-the-day-after-the-gaza-war-pervasive-among-mideast-scholars/

Those surveyed by the Brookings Institute are supposed Mid-East scholars teaching at US Universities. Setting aside their anti-Israel bias, their responses indicate a lack of understanding of the most basic facts: Israel did not start the war, and its actions, unfortunately, were not the result of any planned strategy.

ELECTIONS IN FRANCE AND ENGLAND

While I have generally been following both the elections in France and England, both for my interest, as well as for my weekly radio show on Foreign Affairs, I was somewhat shocked to read the following article by Roger Cohen on the French elections: French Election Becomes ‘Nightmare’ for Nation’s Jews.  I recommend that you read it as well, but here are two excerpts, the first one provides some background:

There were more than 360 antisemitic episodes in France in the first three months of this year, or an average of four a day, an increase of 300 percent over the same period last year, the government said. In the most recent one that shocked the country, the three boys are said to have dragged the girl into an abandoned building where she was repeatedly raped and insulted.

The upcoming French election will be characterized by the extremes. The main leftist party, France Unbowed, has extremely anti-Israel views that have clearly veered into antisemitism. While the right-wing (and formerly antisemitic) National Rally party of Marine Le Pen has become strong supporters of Israel and has been vehemently denouncing antisemitism.

The dilemma of French Jews is best summarized in this portion of the article:

Alain Finkielkraut, one of France’s most prominent public intellectuals and a member of the august Académie Française, wrote in the weekly Le Point of his own personal “nightmare,” faced by a near-impossible choice.

He argued that the campaign of France Unbowed had been based on “hatred of Israel” and cited Aymeric Caron, a lawmaker who is a member of the New Popular Front coalition that left-wing parties have formed, as suggesting Jews were inhuman.

On May 27, Mr. Caron said on the social platform X, “It is evident that Gaza has shown that, no, we do not belong to the same human species.” He was referring to supporters of the Israeli military campaign in Gaza.

Voting for the National Rally to form a bulwark against antisemitism had long been unimaginable to him, Mr. Finkielkraut wrote. “I am not there yet, but perhaps I will be obliged to at some point if there is no alternative. This would be a nightmare. The current situation is a heartbreak for French Jews.”

While the story above is set in France, it reflects a larger problem and dilemma for Jews worldwide. What happens when the political center does not hold? Historically, Jews have fared better with centrist parties, as extremes on both the left and right have often harbored antisemitic tendencies. Traditionally, right-wing parties and individuals have been more overtly antisemitic than those on the left. For instance, the Nazis were right-wing, the KKK is considered right-wing, and Marie Le Pen’s father’s party was openly antisemitic. Although Le Pen herself has denied being antisemitic and her party has shown strong support for Israel, this issue has become more pressing as left-wing parties increasingly criticize Israel, sometimes veering into outright antisemitism.

In the United States, the problem of growing anti-semitism on the left was highlighted by the primary challenge to Congressman Bowman. In a predominantly Jewish district, Bowman’s anti-Israel positions transformed his campaign into one that included antisemitic rhetoric, attacking "Jewish money" and suggesting conspiracy theories about his opponents.

The hope is that the political center will hold, as neither extreme leftists nor right-wing Christian nationalists are likely to be beneficial for the Jewish community. Ideally, Jews in America will not face the difficult choices that Jews in France are currently confronting.

BUSINESS

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will join as a director of the start-up company REMEPY, founded by Dr. Michal Tsur, his former partner from Cyota and one of the founders of the video company Kaltura. REMEPY was established a year ago, but this is its first public exposure.

REMEPY is trying to promote a new approach to drug prescriptions — selling them alongside software that will improve their effect. REMEPY claims it can measure the physiological effect of the digital applications it wants to attach to drugs through fMRI scans (which examine brain activity), blood tests, and medical questionnaires.

REMEPY's software will be attached to drugs by selling licenses to pharmaceutical companies and will require FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) approval for marketing. REMEPY focuses on software for drugs treating neurological diseases such as MCI — Mild Cognitive Impairment, which signals the onset of dementia or Alzheimer's; drugs for Parkinson's disease, for immuno-oncological diseases, and for eye diseases like AMD (Age-related Macular Degeneration) and DME (Diabetic Macular Edema).

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Iraqi Nuclear Program

Iraq began a nuclear research program in the 1960s and actively sought to purchase a reactor from both Italy and the France. In 1976, Iraq convinced France to sell them an Osiris research reactor. Both the French and the Iraqis claimed the plant was designed solely for peaceful purposes. However, Israel was convinced that the plant would be used to produce fuel for nuclear weapons, a concern shared by the United States. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980 - 1988), the Iranians bombed the plant’s control facilities, but did not destroy the reactor itself.

Israel developed a plan to destroy the plant from the air. Located in Baghdad, the plant was at the edge of the operational envelope of Israel's F16s and F15's. With the plant expected to be fueled within a few months, any attack would soon be impossible. Therefore, in April, the Israeli cabinet, led by Prime Minister Begin, approved the mission.

On June 7th, 1981, Israeli F-15s and F16 took off headed to Iraq. The F-15s were being used to cover the flight, while the F-16 carried the fuel. The planes flew over parts of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, entering Iraq from the Saudi border, where there was a gap in radar coverage. The aircraft flew low over the Iraqi desert to avoid being discovered on radar. As they neared the plant, the F-16s climbed to 6,900 feet and began a dive at the target. At 3,600 feet, the planes released their Mark-84 bombs. Eight of the sixteen weapons hit their target, and the plant was effectively destroyed. The F-16 pilots were Ze' ev Raz, Amos Yadlin, Dobbi Yaffe, Hagai Katz, Amir Nachumi, Iftach Spector, Relik Shafir, and Ilan Ramon. The world condemned the Israeli attack.

Ramon, who was the youngest of the flight crew, went on to become Israel's first astronaut, and died tragically in the Columbia Space Shuttle disaster (2003).