DAY 258 OF THE WAR: Lebanon, Are We Prepared? Supplies Are Not Being Delivered in Gaza, Knesset Bills Explained, Terrorist Eliminated

Tel Aviv Diary, June 20, 2024

Today, the Wall Street Journal reported that “the number of hostages still alive could be as low as 50”. The WSJ report received extensive coverage in Israel. This information had not been reported here until now, although the grim details regarding the fate of the hostages had been presumed. The IDF had previously stated that approximately 70 hostages remain alive and acknowledged that there are very likely others who are not.

LEBANON

US sources have also been leaking to CNN, expressing concern that our Missile Defense Systems will be overwhelmed by Hezbollah’s rockets. However, again, this is not news. The current status of our Missile Defense Systems has long been considered a key consideration in the reluctance to initiate a full-scale war in the North.

Shaul Goldstein, CEO of Noga (Israel’s Electric Corporation's system management), admitted today (Thursday) at the INSS (Institute for National Security Studies) conference in Sderot that he cannot guarantee there would be electricity during a future war. Goldstein cautioned: ”After 72 hours without electricity in Israel, it will be impossible to live here... we are in a bad situation and not ready for a real war.”

According to Goldstein, we are living in a fantasy world:

On the positive side, we have invested a lot in protection [of the electrical grid], in a joint team together with the Israel Electric Corporation. If Nasrallah wants to bring down Israel’s power grid, he just needs to call the person in charge of Beirut's power system, which looks exactly like Israel's. He doesn't even need a drone. He can just ask a second-year electrical engineering student where the most critical points in Israel are located – everything is on the internet. I will not say more here, but anyone who goes online can find this information. Recognition of our situation has not sunk in. If the war is delayed by a year, five years, ten years – our situation will, undoubtedly, be better.

In response, the Israel Electric Company immediately asserted its preparedness for a full-scale war. Regrettably, the reality is that we are not prepared. The country faces a power shortage even without a war because it has failed to build enough new power plants. There is virtually no excess capacity. Consequently, if one of the major plants goes offline, we would be in deep trouble. It was reported that one plant went offline last weekend, exacerbated by the hot weather, and we nearly reached the maximum capacity load on the system.

This morning, there were no attacks by Hezbollah on the North. Then, we eliminated a Hezbollah commander late in the morning. This afternoon, there were several barrages of ten rockets each on towns along the border.

IN GAZA

After October 7th, a special group in the Shabak called “N.I.L.I.” was formed to track down all of those who participated in the October massacre. Today, one terrorist who took part in October 7th was assassinated. Today’s action was thanks to their efforts. The IDF described the operation as follows:

An Air Force aircraft led by the Gazaary Intelligence and the Shin Bet Division, Milit attacked and eliminated Ahmed Hassan Salmi Al-Sawarka, a Hamas terrorist, in the Beit Hanoun area. Al-Sawarka served as a commander in the Nakba force and raided the surrounding settlements on October 7. Additionally, he led and directed the sniper activity in the Beit Hanoun area and participated in terrorist activities against IDF forces.

After prolonged surveillance, Al-Sawarka was identified by the 414 Collection Unit fighters and eliminated in the Beit Hanoun area. Before the attack, measures were taken to prevent harm to civilians, and no civilians were injured.

It was reported that, as a sniper, Al-Sawarka killed three IDF soldiers.

Today was a day of continued combat in the Rafah, during which two soldiers were seriously wounded from an anti-tank missile.

FALLOUT FROM NETANYAHU’S REMARKS AGAINST THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

There continues to be fallout from Netanyahu’s remarks attacking the Biden Administration.  White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby said,

Those comments were deeply disappointing and certainly vexing to us, given the amount of support that we have and will continue to give.

Kirby went on to add:

This president put fighter aircraft up in the air in the middle of April to help shoot down several hundred drones and missiles, including ballistic missiles that were fired from Iran proper at Israel. There’s no other country that’s done more or will continue to do more than the United States to help … Prime Minister Netanyahu.

In Israel, I haven’t heard anyone defend Netanyahu's statement. The best guess is that he seems to be betting on Trump winning the upcoming election. However, leaving aside the uncertainty of that outcome, whatever happens, Biden will remain President not just until November but until the middle of January. In response to criticism, Netanyahu offered neither an explanation nor an apology. Tonight, Netanyahu merely said that he does not mind being personally attacked as long as Israel receives the necessary arms.

THE RABBIS BILL AND THE DRAFT RESOLUTION

One of our readers requested clarification on two issues I had written about during the last several days: the Rabbis Bill and the Draft Resolution. I'll do my best to do that.

The Rabbis Bill was initially conceived to settle some issues in the selection of local rabbis. However, over time, it evolved into the current bill. This bill aims to accomplish three main things. First, municipalities currently appoint their own local rabbis and are responsible for paying their salaries.

The new law would effectively place control for the appointment of local rabbis in the hands of the Ministry of Religious Affairs— which is controlled by the Shas Party, while still requiring municipalities to provide the rabbis’ salaries. Second, the new law seeks to increase the number of rabbis that a municipality can be forced to hire by mandating the hiring of rabbis for individual neighborhoods (not currently required). Finally, the new law would decrease the number of women mandated to participate in the process of selecting local rabbis.

The two main objections to the new law are, firstly, that it will cost municipalities large sums of money to provide additional jobs for allies of the Shas party. Secondly, it will force towns to accept rabbis who do not come from the community and do not represent the town’s values.

Ultra-Orthodox Draft

Without reviewing the complete history of the ultra-Orthodox draft issue, it suffices to say that the old law, which granted draft exemptions to the ultra-Orthodox, has expired. The National Service law, from which the ultra-Orthodox seek a permanent, widespread exemption, requires all 18-year-old Israeli Jews (with limited exceptions, e.g., for religious women) to serve in the military. As a result, a petition was submitted to the Supreme Court demanding that the Army begin drafting ultra-Orthodox young men. The Court initially heard the case with a limited panel of three judges. They ruled that in the absence of a current, valid law exempting the ultra-Orthodox, the Army was required to start drafting them. Simultaneously, the government was mandated to halt the widespread distribution of stipends that ultra-Orthodox men were receiving for studying in yeshiva.

The Supreme Court agreed to hear the case in a larger forum — which took place one month ago. The judges seemed highly skeptical of the arguments against the immediate drafting of the ultra-Orthodox, especially in the absence of a valid existing law. They also expressed doubt about the effectiveness of any new legislation that might be enacted. The Supreme Court has not yet issued its opinion. The coalition’s push to attempt to enact a new ultra-Orthodox military exemption law swiftly is an effort aimed at providing a legislative basis to persuade the High Court not to mandate the draft of all yeshiva students.

To date, all attempts to negotiate a new law failed. So, Netanyahu had a brilliant idea: take a bill that had passed its first reading during the previous government (i.e., from before the war) and use an arcane parliamentary maneuver — (known as “the continuity clause”) to apply the passing of the first reading of the law in the previous Knesset to resuscitate the legislation in this Knesset.

The problem with Netanyahu’s “Hail Mary” pass is twofold: First, the State’s Attorney General stated that this case constitutes a misuse of the “continuity clause.” More importantly, the original bill was passed pre-October 7th as a very first step toward creating equity in shouldering the national burden— when the army did not need Ultra-Orthodox troops — and it was not intended to secure a significant increase in the number of ultra-Orthodox serving in the army.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu managed to strong-arm his coalition into reviving this bill employing the “continuity clause”, to progress through the legislative process. However, at this point, a sufficient number of Likud MKs have publicly stated they will not support any legislation that fails to ensure a substantial number of ultra-Orthodox young men are drafted into the Army. Such a bill will, without question, face opposition from the ultra-Orthodox parties. At this point, it looks like a directive from the High Court to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students and to stop their funding remains imminent.

WHY NOT RAFAH FIRST?

Another reader asked— Why didn’t the IDF start the Gaza operation in Rafah? This is an excellent question. Moreover, many military experts believe that entering Rafah first would have been the right strategy. That being said, from what I have gathered from semi-reliable sources, the Army had a plan to begin operations in Rafah, but that decision was overridden.

To provide some context, there was significant concern about the potential high cost in troop casualties before the Israeli ground campaign began. This apprehension existed before we witnessed the effectiveness of the new technology designed to protect our armored vehicles. I believe the political leadership was afraid of risking a massive loss of our soldiers. This is why the initial actions in Gaza were so destructive. In retrospect, this approach was obviously a mistake on multiple fronts.

FOOD SUPPLY IN GAZA

Here is the heart of one of our problems. Below are a tweet and a video from COGAT (the Coordinator of the Government Activities in the Territories), the Israeli Army unit responsible for civilians in both the West Bank and Gaza. This tweet and video highlight one of our intractable problems in Gaza— i.e., although more than enough food is entering Gaza, it is not being distributed effectively. The U.N. has indicated that due to violence and gang activity, it may have to suspend its work inside Gaza. I hate to have to quote Colin Powell, who is paraphrased as saying, “You break it, you own it.” Unfortunately, regarding humanitarian aid in Gaza, we have certainly “broken it,” so now what? If Gaza turns into Somalia, or worse, we will be blamed, and in part, justifiably so. Regardless of the outcome, we will likely be blamed.

Here’s COGAT’s tweet:

Here, too, just like the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom, pallets of aid are waiting to be picked up and distributed by the @UN aid agencies for days. We've said it before the UN needs to scale up.

This video shows an aerial view of the JLOTS (Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore) zone for loading and unloading aid.

Tonight, Dennis Ross, former US Envoy to the Middle East, tweeted:

A UN official told me that lately, 80 percent of the humanitarian assistance going into Gaza has been looted by criminal gangs or Hamas. That has to stop; there must be security for the distribution. Either Israel does it, Egypt does it, or contractors do it. But someone must do it.

U.S. Central Command Update [June 19]

In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed two Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed surface vessels (USV) in the Red Sea.

Separately, USCENTCOM forces successfully destroyed one ground control station and one command and control node in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen.

It was determined these systems presented an imminent threat to U.S. forces, coalition forces, and merchant vessels in the region. These actions were taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S., coalition, and merchant vessels.

SHAVUA HASEFER HA’IVRI, NATIONAL HEBREW BOOK WEEK

This is National Hebrew Book Week in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, during which publishers and authors from all across the country gather to promote their current offerings. Tens of thousands flock to this annual event to enjoy author signings, activities for kids, and great deals on books — in every imaginable category— all available for visitors to browse and, of course, also to buy.

This year, a special section was reserved to honor the hostages, placing their favorite books on display.

BUSINESS

Significant and positive AI business news

Ilya Sutskever, one of the founders and former Chief Scientist of OpenAI, is establishing a new artificial intelligence company. The company will be American, with offices in Palo Alto and Tel Aviv, Sutskever says, “where we have deep roots and the ability to recruit top-level technological talent.” Sutskever's decision, as one of the leading figures in the world of artificial intelligence today, to open a branch in Israel will have significant affirmative implications for Israel's status and image regarding artificial intelligence – especially during this time of war. Sutskever's partners in the venture are American high-tech entrepreneurs Daniel Gross, who grew up in Israel, and Daniel Levy.

PointFive

PointFive, a company that developed a platform for managing cloud costs in large organizations, has raised $16 million in a seed round. The company was founded in Israel in 2023 by Alon Arbatz, who serves as CEO; Gal Ben-David, who serves as Chief Product Officer; and Amir Khazaz, who serves as Chief Technology Officer. PointFive’s founders were all founders and part of the founding team of IntiSights, a cybersecurity startup that was acquired by Rapid7 in 2021 for $350 million.

Index Ventures led the fundraising round for PointFive, which included participation from Entree Capital, Sheva Capital, Vesey Ventures, and a number of private investors, including Assaf Rappaport, CEO and co-founder of Wiz; Micky Boodaei, CEO and co-founder of Transmit Security; Tamar Yehoshua, former Chief Product Officer at Slack; Rakesh Loonkar; Amiram Shachar; Guy Podjarny; Dean Sysman; and other notable investors.

PointFive employs 35 people and currently serves some of the world’s largest companies. The three founders have been working together for over a decade and have extensive experience in the cybersecurity field.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Terror in Nahariya

On April 22, 1979, four terrorists belonging to Fatah infiltrated Israel from southern Lebanon via the sea. They arrived on the shores of Nahariya, under the cover of darkness, using a rubber dinghy. Upon landing, the terrorists attempted to assault a private residence but were repelled by the homeowner, Amnon Sela, who fired shots at them. A police vehicle quickly arrived at the scene, and during the subsequent gunfight, police officer Eliyahu Shahar was killed. The terrorists then fled into a nearby apartment building, located at 61 Jabotinsky Street, where they forcibly entered the Haran family home.

Inside the apartment, the terrorists took Danny Haran, 31, and his four-year-old daughter, Einat, as hostages. Danny’s wife, Smadar, managed to hide in a small crawl space with their two-year-old daughter, Yael, and a neighbor. Tragically, in her desperate attempt to keep Yael quiet and avoid detection, Smadar accidentally suffocated the child.

Meanwhile, Danny and Einat were taken by the terrorists to the beach, where a fierce gunfight ensued between the terrorists and Israeli security forces. Both police and soldiers were involved. During this chaotic and violent confrontation, Samir Kuntar, one of the terrorists, committed a series of profoundly heinous acts. He shot Danny Haran in the back at close range, killing him in front of his young daughter. Kuntar then brutally murdered four-year-old Einat by smashing her skull against a rock with the butt of his rifle.

The horrific nature of the attack, particularly the brutal killing of the Haran family, sent shockwaves throughout Israel and the international community. Kuntar and the surviving terrorists were captured and placed on trial in Israel. Kuntar was sentenced to multiple life sentences for his role in the murders. He spent 29 years in prison before being released in 2008 as part of a prisoner exchange deal with Hezbollah in return for the bodies of Israeli soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud “Udi” Goldwasser, who had been captured and killed by Hezbollah in 2006. Samir Kuntar’s release was met with widespread condemnation in Israel, as many saw it as a painful compromise.