DAY 146 OF THE GAZA WAR: Chaos In Gaza, Netanyahu Opposes Elections, El Al Soars

Tel Aviv Diary, February, 29, 2024

Today was a tumultuous, sad day on a number of fronts, many of which are tied to Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose objectionable speech I just had to endure.

TERROR ATTACK IN ELI

I will begin with an event that isn’t directly related: a terror attack at a gas station outside the West Bank town of Eli. There, a terrorist emerged from a stolen car and murdered two people in vehicles at the station. This was the same location where a terror attack occurred last June. The owner of the Hummus restaurant at the gas station rest stop, (who had just returned from reserve duty in Gaza), pulled out his personal gun and killed the terrorist. The assailant was a member of the Palestinian Authority Police Force, and was a resident of the Qalandia refugee camp in Northern Jerusalem.

THE OUTCOME OF ENTERING GAZA WITHOUT ANY STRATEGIC PLAN

The second tragic event of the day transpired in the early hours of the morning, when a convoy of aid trucks entered Northern Gaza— the fourth such convoy this week. As trucks arrived in Northern Gaza, thousands of Gazans surrounded the vehicles, leading to a stampede. In the ensuing chaos, the Palestinian drivers of the trucks panicked, began driving, and inadvertently ran over many people present in the crowd. Hamas claims that over a hundred were killed, whereas Israel’s estimate suggests the toll is in the dozens.

(Below a via from Israeli drone)

In a separate, but related incident, a mob approached a nearby group of Israeli soldiers, who feeling threatened, initially fired shots in the air, before aiming at the legs of the approaching Gazans. It is not believed that this gunfire resulted in any fatalities.

Late this afternoon, a group of right-wing activists stormed into Gaza, claiming they were there to create new settlements. At first, the soldiers were unsure how to respond. However, eventually, they received orders to restrain the activists and hand them over to the police. Reports indicate that police arrested 10 of the activists.

What unites these two events is our complete lack of a strategic plan. As we approach the five-month mark of the war, we have done nothing to prepare for what comes next. In reality, we have prepared for nothing beyond the military aspects of the war, neglecting any further planning. This connects to Thomas Friedman’s article in yesterday’s NYT, “Israel Is Losing Its Greatest Asset: Acceptance” — a troubling article with which, unfortunately, I agree.

Before you argue that we were attacked by surprise, and our actions are justified, facts with which I do agree … and before you suggest that the best outcome would be the elimination of Hamas, a fact with which I also agree… the problem is that when we attacked Gaza, we overlooked that modern warfare is not just about kinetic combat.

Conflict today unfolds on screens worldwide, both big and small. Somehow we made the mistake of thinking all we needed to do was to better articulate ourselves. Whether it was getting an IDF spokesman who spoke excellent English, or having our eloquent Prime Minister explain our case on US TV networks, we forgot the power of imagery (i.e. worth a thousand words), and video, which speaks volumes more than words ever could.

Indeed, we have obliterated kilometers of Hamas terror tunnels and, according to the IDF spokesman, we’ve killed 13,000 Hamas fighters, 450 of them in the past week. But at what cost? Here, my concern is not solely about our brave soldiers who fell in combat, but also about the impact of the devastating images coming out from Gaza on international perception.

Did we not foresee the dire hunger situation in Gaza? Indeed, Hamas initiated the conflict, and yes, it is Hamas's fault that the aid being delivered is appropriated by them. But shouldn’t we have anticipated this outcome? Were we oblivious to the impact this would have on international opinion?

Alon Ben-David, one of Israel's premier military correspondents (from Channel 13), has repeatedly highlighted in recent discussions the dilemma faced when there are calls for the IDF to take a more active role in providing relief in Gaza. Ben-David shared he would not want to be the officer tasked with the heartbreaking duty of informing a family that their loved one died while distributing food to Gazans.

I am sorry; I share Ben-David’s sentiment. I too would never want to be in that position. Nevertheless, if our goal in Gaza was not merely to dismantle Hamas, but also to influence world opinion, and, perhaps, have a few Gazans hate us less, then the act of distributing rice might be as important, if not more so, than eliminating another Hamas terrorist. Unfortunately, thanks to the coalition government that we have, and the Prime Minister who is leading it, we are unable to make any strategic decisions.

Returning to the beginning of today's update … as I sat down to type, Prime Minister Netanyahu was conducting a press conference. Netanyahu began with another rant about how “we must continue until we achieve total victory”. However, the real reason the Prime Minister decided to address the nation tonight was his fear that Defense Minister Galant's speech on Tuesday night might destroy his coalition, and lead to a new national election.

In his speech, Galant called for a proposal that would result in the ultra-Orthodox carrying their share of the national service burden and that any plan had to be supported by all the coalition (i.e., Gantz and Eisenkot). Netanyahu claimed that the ultra-Orthodox are eager to contribute further; provided there is a consensus on a plan that would enable them to participate in some form of service on a voluntary basis.

Netanyahu then contended that a plan outlining military service obligations did not need to be unanimously approved, arguing that such consensus is only found in places like North Korea, not in democracies like Israel. He then delivered a five-minute soliloquy on why holding elections during the war would be detrimental. According to Netanyahu, holding an election would mean stopping the war, which is exactly what Sinwar’s wants.

The Prime Minister suggested that calling for a new election (something the overwhelming majority of Israelis want) as equivalent of handing Sinwar a victory. By definition, Netanyahu implied that anyone advocating for an election is a traitor who seeks to help Sinwar and Hamas. This ties back to the earlier discussion in the update regarding the lack of a strategic plan for Gaza, a situation ascribed to Netanyahu's hesitation to put forward any solution that might be acceptable to any of our friends in the world, due to concerns over alienating Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.

What is Netanyahu's most important goal? To keep his coalition intact, at all costs.

Having participated in demonstrations against judicial reform every Saturday night for more than eight months, I initially chose not to join the recent demonstrations against Netanyahu and his government, believing that this was not the appropriate time. Yet, Netanyahu's actions tonight have convinced me that he will do everything in his power to prevent the right time from ever arriving. However, tonight, it became clear that the time to act is indeed now.

One of our readers requested for an explanation as to why the ultra-Orthodox do not want to serve in the IDF. I had hoped to provide a comprehensive explanation of the issue tonight, but I promise to address this contentious topic in the update’s Saturday night edition.

GAZA

Combat continues in two main areas – Khan Younis and the Zietoun area of Gaza City. After serving in Gaza since the beginning of the war, the Paratroop Brigade left the Gaza today, for a period of profoundly necessary, and deserved R&R. The Paratroop Brigade was replaced by other troops.

NORTH

Exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel continued, with rocket attacks on the border communities. The IAF responded by attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The only unusual event, was the downing of a suspicious object in the skies near Haifa.

Last night I wrote about an item in the journal, Foreign Affairs, in which editors asked the question: “In the Wake of the War in Gaza, Is the Two-State Solution Still Viable?" Unfortunately, the link was broken. My apologies. This link works.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/israel-palestine-two-state-solution-still-viable?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=editorial_special&utm_campaign=post_release_two_state_mirage_actives&utm_content=20240228&utm_term=all-actives

ANTISEMITISM IN AMERICA

The ADL released a new, disconcerting report on the rise of antisemitism in America. Here is part of executive summary:

This study of 4,143 Americans, fielded between January 5th and January 18th, 2024, (with a margin of error of approximately 1.5%) found the following trends:

Anti-Jewish trope beliefs continue to increase, and younger Americans are showing higher rates.

• From 2022 to 2024, the average number of anti-Jewish tropes endorsed by Americans increased from 4.18 to 4.31 out of 14. Using the original 11 statements comprising the ADL Index, agreement with 6 or more anti-Jewish tropes increased from 20% of the U.S. population in 2022 to just under 24% in 2024.

• In a reversal of past trends, younger Americans are more likely to endorse anti-Jewish tropes, with millennials agreeing with the greatest number of anti-Jewish tropes on average, at 5.4. They’re followed by Gen Z at 5, Gen X at 4.2, and Baby Boomers at 3.1.

• In addition to individual attitudes, more than 42% of Americans either have friends/family who dislike Jews (23.2%) or find it socially acceptable for a close family member to support Hamas (27.2%).

Conspiratorial thinking and social dominance orientation are key predictors of anti-Jewish belief.

• Belief in conspiracy theories continues to be one of the main correlates of antisemitic attitudes, with an overall average correlation of .378 with anti-Jewish trope belief. Respondents who fall in the upper quartile of conspiracy theory belief endorsed over twice as many anti-Jewish tropes, on average, as those with the least conspiracy theory belief.

• Anti-Jewish belief also correlates heavily with social dominance orientation – the belief that there should be higher status groups and that they should suppress lower status groups. For example, respondents who at least somewhat agreed with the statement that some groups of people are inferior to other groups were 3.6 times more likely to fall in the top quartile of anti-Jewish trope belief compared to those who did not.

• There was also a strong relationship with the belief that the problems in the world “come down to the oppressor vs the oppressed.” Those who at least somewhat agreed with this belief were 2.6 times more likely to fall in the top quartile of anti-Jewish trope belief compared to those who disagreed with the statement.

BUSINESS

El Al Airlines experienced a significant financial upturn in the fourth quarter of 2023, marking a 367% growth in earnings compared to the same quarter in 2022, totaling $40 million. This remarkable performance was underscored by a substantial increase in market share from 21.3% to 59%, largely due to the cessation of flights by most foreign airlines following the outbreak of the war. Revenue growth of 21% to $678 million was propelled by a 10% rise in activity and an 8.8% increase in passenger-kilometers flown, alongside a strategic shift in destinations and a 5.4% increase in yield per passenger.

The reduction in competition at Ben Gurion Airport, coupled with an enhanced focus on lucrative routes like New York, contributed to this success. Additionally, El Al boosted its cargo operations by 33%, benefiting from the decreased availability of cargo space on foreign airlines due to the war. Operating profit soared by 83% to $84 million, representing 12.4% of turnover, with jet fuel expenses remaining stable at $148 million despite a 14% rise in consumption, thanks to lower fuel prices.

El Al generated a significant cash flow surplus from operating activities, amounting to $175 million, reflecting a growth of 144% from the fourth quarter of 2022.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Homa and Migdal

The Peel Commission Plan, which proposed partition of Mandated Palestine into Arab and Jewish States based on the settlement patterns of the Jews of Palestine, underscored the need to settle unpopulated areas of Palestine. The JNF therefore made considerable efforts to acquire land in those parts of the Galilee where there were few Jewish settlers. By this time, as the Arab revolt was in full swing, it was clear that Jewish settlement could not be established in new parts of the country without immediate defense against Arab attack. Thus, the concept of setting up a defensive wall and tower during the first days of construction was instituted. From 1936 through 1939, 53 new settlements were established, almost all in areas that had been sparsely settled until that time.

This period was known as the era of the “Homa and Migdal settlements”, named after the towers and stockades established on the first day in each new community. The settlement that was considered the culmination of the Homa and Migdal plan, was Hanita, established on the northern border, on March 21, 1938. This settlement was over 800 meters from the nearest road, and thus, material had to be carried by hand and by donkey to the new site. Over 400 members of the Haganah from throughout the country were mobilized to participate in this settlement effort. Within the first night after the settlement, Arabs attacked the settlers, but were driven off with the loss of two lives. In subsequent days, the Arabs continued (unsuccessfully) to try to remove the settlers. Ultimately, Hanita became the anchor for further settlement of the Northern Galilee

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