DAY 136 OF THE GAZA WAR: Video of Bibas Family, Eizenkot's Concerns, Lebanon Border Escalation.

Tel Aviv Diary, February 19, 2024

VIDEO OF BIBAS FAMILY IN GAZA

Today's leading news story in Israel featured the military's release of video footage showing the Bibas family in Gaza following their abduction. This footage, extracted from Hamas servers, features security videos from the site where the family was taken right after their abduction. It offers the first evidence of the family's situation following their kidnapping. The video dispels the rumors that the Israeli Air Force had killed the Bibas’s during their kidnapping into Gaza. Unfortunately, the footage does not offer much information about what happened to the family since then. The Bibas family was abducted by a small, clan-like militia and were not released during the initial ceasefire.

Concerns for the Bibas family's safety are significant, assuming they are still alive. Photos of the distinctly recognizable redheaded children have become emblematic of the early phase of the hostage crisis. Release of the video has reinvigorated discussions about the hostages, who, despite ongoing weekly rallies and other events, had started to somewhat slip from the day-to-day consciousness of the Israeli public. Currently, there are neither active negotiations working to secure the hostages' release, nor for a ceasefire. As I mentioned last night, there seems to be a communication breakdown between Hamas in Gaza and Hamas Overseas, which persists today.

GAZA

Fighting persists around Al-Nasr hospital, as the final search of the facility carries on. The IDF announced the loss of Staff Sgt. Simon Shlomov (20), of the Paratroopers Brigade yesterday in combat near the hospital.

GADI EIZENKOT SPEAKS OUT

Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, who suffered the loss of both his son and a nephew in this war, wrote a strident letter to his colleagues in the war cabinet. Eizenkot expressed his deep concern that Israel was at risk of failing to achieve any of its war objectives in Gaza as a result of the government’s inability to develop any strategic plan.

NORTHERN BORDER

This afternoon, a suicide drone from Lebanon bypassed Israeli air defense systems and flew near Tiberias along the shore of Lake Galilee, an event seen as an escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. In retaliation, Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons storage facility located just outside Sidon, approximately 50 kilometers from the border. Footage from the strike show several secondary explosions, confirming the attack hit its intended target.

There is growing consensus that Iran has instructed all of its proxies to tone down the intensity of their attacks. The US’s retaliatory actions against Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, following the deaths of US soldiers, may have convinced Iran of the potential risk of engaging in a conflict with the US — a conflict for which Iran, despite its bold statements, is ill-equipped to fight. However, in the unpredictable landscape of the Middle East, consensus can sometimes be misleading, so the outcome remains to be seen. Despite Iran's directive to scale back attacks, the Houthis are still aggressively targeting ships. One ship that came under Houthi attack today may now be in danger of sinking. In response, both the US and the UK continue to launch strikes against Houthi positions.

VOTE TO OUST MK OFER KASIF

The Knesset failed to remove MK Ofer Kasif from office. The accusation against him was that by his writing a letter in support of South Africa’s initiative to accuse Israel of genocide, Kasif had committed an act of treason. Prime Minister Netanyahu supported Kasif’s ouster. However, neither Yair Lapid nor Benny Gantz supported the move, and they, along with a number of others, were notably absent from the vote. Both the Attorney General and the Knesset’s Legal Advisor had indicated that Kasif’s actions, while highly objectionable, did not meet the legal criteria for expulsion. Consequently, it had been anticipated that the Supreme Court would have overturned the vote, if Kasif had appealed. This scenario was avoided, as only 85 Knesset members voted in favor of his expulsion, falling short of the 90 votes required to remove a member from the Knesset.

BEN-GVIR SEEKS TO LIMIT ARAB ACCESS TO TEMPLE MOUNT DURING RAMADAN

National Security Minister Ben-Gvir's proposal during a special war cabinet meeting to limit access to the Temple Mount during Ramadan, particularly for Arab Israelis, faced sharp criticism. Critics argue that his actions seemed designed to provoke the very scenario he had cautioned about, which had not yet occurred— i.e., Arab Israelis aligning with Hamas in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu was reproached for even considering some of Ben-Gvir’s suggestions. There was no factual justification for Ben Gvir's stance; he merely tried to deflect the criticism towards the Security Services and the Army by suggesting their advice should be disregarded, citing their past inaccurate predictions about Hamas before October 7th.

DEMOCRATS ABROAD

There was a story I intended to write about, but did not have the opportunity to do so— i.e., the decision made (back in December) by the Democrats Abroad Israel to resign. Their resignation from the worldwide Democratic collective stemmed from disagreements with the broader Democrats Abroad's stance towards Israel. I have been loosely affiliated with them, primarily appearing as a media spokesperson in opposition to President Trump when they needed an alternative voice. Additionally, since I have never been a member of Democrats Abroad, I could speak frankly on subjects that the official organization could not.

David Isaac from the Jewish News Service wrote an article on the subject today. Once again, since I was never officially affiliated with Democrats Abroad, I was able to speak candidly and am quoted extensively in the article. https://www.jns.org/israels-democrats-abroad-board-quits-over-umbrella-groups-hostility/

ANTISEMITISM

I want to recommend you read or listen to three different reports on antisemitism. The first is an Haaretz story, titled: “California's Bay Area: Ground Zero for a New Level of anti-Jewish Intolerance in America.”

The second is an Instagram reel, by Israel Channel 13’s US-based correspondent, Neria Kraus, reported from Columbia University.

neriakraus

A post shared by @neriakraus

And finally, a reader sent me an article from the Guardian about the massive increase in antisemitism in the UK.

The Observer view: the scale of antisemitism blights our politics and our country

ECONOMY

The war in Israel resulted in one of the most challenging quarters for the Israeli economy on record. During the fourth quarter of 2023, the GDP saw a significant drop of 19.4% compared to the previous quarter on an annualized basis— (i.e., the decrease in output if the rate of decline in the fourth quarter had continued for a whole year). This data was released today (Monday) by the Central Bureau of Statistics. There's a looming concern that the ongoing conflict will further decelerate economic growth in subsequent quarters. In absolute numbers, while the GDP per capita in Israel stood at approximately 42,000 shekels per quarter in the third quarter of 2023, it fell to below 40,000 shekels in the fourth quarter.

The quarterly decline occurred after a sharp drop in various components of product usage. The steepest decline was recorded in gross domestic investment in the economy – a quarterly plunge of 70.3% (all quarterly data are on an annualized basis compared to the previous quarter). The economic activity, and the missile attacks, plus the fact that so many workers have been in reserve duty also impacted exports, which fell by 18.3% in the fourth quarter. Conversely, imports were also hit in the fourth quarter with a 42.4% decline.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Haganah Founded

In 1920, the shomrim organization was replaced by the Haganah -- becoming the official underground army of the Jews in Palestine. The Haganah was initially established under the direct control of the Achdut Avodah party. However, with the establishment of the Histadrut, the Haganah came under its direct oversight. The Haganah's first actions were conducted in response to the 1920 Arab riots in Jerusalem.

During subsequent riots in 1921, the Haganah performed commendably in Jerusalem, but struggled to effectively manage the disturbances in Jaffa. In the relatively peaceful period in Palestine, from 1921 to 1929, the Haganah stagnated. The 1929 riots caught the Haganah by surprise. Although the Haganah was able to defend Jewish settlements against attack in most instances, it could not prevent the massacres that took place in Hebron and Safed. Following these riots, the Haganah underwent a reorganization, significantly boosting both the import and local manufacture of arms.

In 1931, non-Histadrut elements of the Haganah seceded and formed their own group. The 1936 riots resulted in another reorganization that put the Haganah under the direct control of the World Zionist Organization, and the splinter faction rejoined.

The 1936 riots accelerated the growth of the Haganah. During the initial stage of the riots, the Haganah was able to successfully defend each and every Jewish settlement so that none needed to be abandoned. By the end of 1936, the Haganah had formed highly capable mobile units that were able to take the offensive against Arab attackers. In 1937, the British decided that in order to maintain order during the Arab revolt, they would have to cooperate with the Jewish community. Thus, they organized a legal Jewish police force, which was essentially under the control of the Haganah. This force grew to include over 1,000 full-time members and 22,000 militia members.

In 1938, the British Army authorized Captain Orde Wingate to organize special “Night Squads.” Their night attacks were a major element in successfully suppressing the Arab revolt. With the British issuance of the White Paper, the Haganah began to concentrate on illegal immigration. With the outbreak of World War II, the Haganah once again began large-scale cooperation with the British, encouraging many of its members to join the British Armed Forces. At war's end, the Haganah concentrated its efforts once more on smuggling illegal immigrants into Palestine, as well as preparing the way for independence. When Israel's independence was declared, the Haganah became the Israel Defense Forces.

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