Tel Aviv Diary November 4, 2022

The Sum of All Our Fears- Understanding the Israeli Election Results

“The Sum of All Our Fears,” is the title of one of the most successful Tom Clancy thrillers, and an apt description of how almost everyone I know in Tel Aviv feels at the moment. While many of the individual factors which led to Tuesday’s election result were known in advance, the confluence of those components combined to bring about a very sad day for those of us who want Israel to be a liberal democracy. I will attempt to analyze each of the factors, but first, here are the results:

:

Total Potential Voters: 6,788,804

Votes Cast 4,793,641

Turnout 71%

Votes Cast For Parties Supporting Netanyahu 2,303,964

Votes Cast For Parties Opposing Him (including the parties that failed to reach the minimum): 2,330,464

This does not include the votes cast for Ayelet Shaked 56,793

To me, the worst part of the election outcome was not the fact Netanyahu (who is on trial for corruption, bribery, and breach of trust) will return as Prime Minister, but rather, the amount of support Itamar Ben Gvir and his party received. The rise of Ben Gvir, together with the fact the new government will effectively be controlled by a combination of two ultra-Orthodox Knesset parties who prefer to live in the 16th century, and another party of ultra-nationalist religious zealots who believe the land of Israel was given to us by God — in its entirety — and we dare not give up one inch. It should be noted that among the heads of the different factions in the projected new coalition, Netanyahu is the only one who served a regular army service. The new government will have only nine women members; 1/3 of the number who served in the outgoing coalition.

Analysis

So, how did we get here? 

I will begin by analyzing the election on the tactical level, starting with the losers:

The biggest loser is clearly Meretz. Unfortunately, this loss is not surprising. Meretz ran a ridiculous, out of touch campaign. It began with the slogan referring to Zehava Galon: “I’m back, Meretz is back.” When I first saw this war cry, I wanted to know where they thought Meretz had gone? Meretz was just in the government for the first time in a generation … but now, Zehava was back. Ok, so? Before long, the Meretz call to arms became “[It is] only with Meretz that there will be 61 to stop Ben Gvir.” This was not really a good reason to cast a ballot for Meretz — After all, anyone who wanted to stop Ben Gvir, could just have voted for Lapid. 

I waited until late in the afternoon to go to the polls. When it was clear voter turnout was  indeed very heavy, which meant Meretz might really be in trouble, I reluctantly voted for Meretz. I say reluctantly, because I felt they did not earn my support. My ballot was cast to support the bloc. In the end, my fear was completely warranted. Meretz did need my vote, but unfortunately, that was not enough. Meretz needed another 2,800 votes to meet the minimum threshold to enter the 25th Knesset. Given the party’s clear failure, I expected (well, perhaps more accurately, hoped) that Galon’s first act after the election would be to take personal responsibly and resign. Galon took very little responsibility, and primarily blamed Lapid and Michaeli. This is sad.  

The next biggest loser was the Labor Party. They went from 7 seats in the outgoing Knesset to 4 seats in the upcoming Knesset. Merav Michaeli made a number of major errors as head of the Party. After not pursuing the issue in her year plus as Transportation Minister, during the campaign Michaeli started pushing the issue of allowing the new Tel Aviv light-rail to run on Shabbat — which was too late to accomplish anything, but give the ultra-Orthodox a new reason to come out in vote — “Shabbat is in danger!” 

There was a general feeling that Labor accomplished little in office. The most important ministry that Labor received was given to Omer Bar Lev, the only Labor MK with significant security experience (he once commanded the elite Sayeret Matkal). Bar Lev turned out to be a bland choice, who seemed to accomplish little. Michaeli herself became Transportation Minister, where regrettably, actions taken today have little immediate impact. In addition, she like most ministers, had no experience or knowledge in the field. To Michaeli’s credit observers of the Ministry point to the fact that she depoliticized the ministry and appointed experts — as opposed to political hacks who previously held those positions. But the general public gave her little credit for that.

Of course, Merav Michaeli's biggest mistake was her refusal to merge with Meretz. She believed polls projecting both parties passing the electoral threshold. That being said, I am not sure how Michaeli could have believed those optimistic polls. In Tel Aviv, where many voters are strategic and not tied to a particular party, no one I knew was sure who they would vote for in advance. A large body of voters only knew who they would not support, but by election day had not selected the party that would receive their vote.

I am a perfect example. As I said above, I decided who I would vote for at 5PM on election day. I know many people like me. Michaeli spoke to the press on Thursday evening, and she also did not take responsibility for the losses of the left-wing bloc, roundly blaming Lapid. Many expected Michaeli to resign, since although Netanyahu might have still won a majority even if Meretz and Labor had run jointly, the Netanyahu majority would have been just one seat (i.e., considerably less stable). Michaeli’s press conference was not well received, and there are signs of a revolt brewing. 

The campaigns of the Arab parties were in some respects a great success, but ultimately a total failure. The leadership did manage to get out the vote, with voter participation in the Arab sector close to 55%. However, due to internal squabbling, the Joint List split, and the Balad party ran separately. While Balad came close to passing the electoral threshold, the party fell short. Moreover, the two main parties (Ram and the Joint List) refused to sign a vote-sharing agreement (for the extra votes, i.e., “left-over portions” of a seat that each party might have received). As a result, nearly 4 seats were lost. If Meretz and Balad had passed the threshold, Netanyahu would not have won. The election would have resulted in a tie, which would have led to another round of elections. Subsequently, the Arabs went from a position of political leverage in the last Knesset, to effectively none in the upcoming Knesset.

Next, in the long list of election losers, there is the “Machaneh Hamamlachti” lead by Defense Minister Benny Gantz. This grouping of unified parties was almost a complete failure. Gantz was unable to attract right-leaning voters, to any significant degree. Gantz's unrealistic hope he would be able to lead a government which would include Charedim resulted in his attacking Lapid more than Netanyahu. It was too bad that Gadi Eizenkot decided to join with Gantz, instead of going with Lapid, where he would likely have had much more impact.

Yisrael Beiteinu, headed by Avidgor Lieberman went down by one seat. However, considering the fact that Lieberman was Finance Minister, a position that has been the death of many politicians, the loss of just one seat is really not bad.

Finally, there is Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid. Lapid decided to run a Rose Garden campaign —meaning, he campaigned as Prime Minister. Instead of getting down and dirty, he showed himself competently running the country. When the government first took office I thought that many of those supporting Netanyahu would see that leaders other than Netanyahu could run the country competently, and thus, the view that only Netanyahu could successfully do that job  would weaken. But that did not work.

Despite his clear competency, Lapid simply did not get any credit. As to the issue of managing the bloc — Lapid tried desperately to persuade Michaeli to run together with Meretz. Lapid even offered to place one of the Labor party members on the Yesh Atid list in a realistic spot, but Michaeli would not budge. The danger of losing one of more of the smaller satellite parties was known to him. I wrote an email to one of Lapid’s closest advisors, just as the campaign was beginning, and said: 

“I think the parties to your left may all collapse. For instance, I have a friend who has been voting for the Joint List, but this time, she has had enough of them. She feels that Ayman Odeh has decided he does not want to be part of the real political game. So, she plans to vote for you, and skip those to the left. I find no one wants to cast another Gevalt vote for Meretz.”  

The one thing Lapid probably should have done on election day was to clearly state that voting for Meretz was as good as voting for him.

Now, on to the victors:

The Likud ran a somewhat successful campaign. It was a one man show, with none of the other members of the list participating in any serious way. The Likud managed to increase their number of Knesset members from 30 to 32. The fact that Netanyahu is in the midst of a corruption trial seemed to have no impact. Netanyahu supporters were convinced he was framed, and that the case against him is collapsing — neither of which are true. Bibi supporters keep saying there is no one like Bibi, and they believe it. One of the key campaign themes of the Likud attacked Lapid for accepting Arabs-Israelis as coalition partners — and that vilification worked. That, along with the false, inflammatory claim that the “left” was destroying the Jewish character of the state, both turned out to be potent themes.

One of the big winners of this election was the Shas party, led by Areyeh Deri (who was twice convicted of corruption). Shas went from 9 to 11 seats. Shas claimed to be the only party who really cared about the poor. The actions of the outgoing government to tax sugary drinks and reusable plastic containers was seen by Shas voters as an imposed price increase specifically aimed against them, as a community of large families, by an out-of-touch left-wing government, made up of secular Tel Avivim. In retrospect, it was a terrible mistake not to take the money the government collected from these taxes and use the capital to subsidize some basic food products — that would have been a clear sign of assistance to needy families.

Moreover, both Shas and UJT (United Torah Judaism) benefitted from claims the Torah world was under assault from a secular government, and everyone must come out and vote. Thanks to all of the above, UJT managed to maintain its current representation, despite the fact it is assumed that many in their community voted for Ben Gvir.

Finally, there is the big story of the election — the growth of the Religious Zionist Movement from 6 to 14 seats, all thanks to the rise of Itamar Ben Gvir; the one-time Jewish terrorist, and clear extremist. Netanyahu brokered the original merger between Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotritch, leader of the Religious Zionist. That being said, it was the TV networks who repeatedly invited Ben Gvir to appear on air that normalized him, and his popularity soared.

The question that has been difficult for someone like me living inside the Tel Aviv bubble to answer is — Why? This issue needs to be examined on two levels. On one level, Ben Gvir is the product of a country that is tired of managing the conflict, and would like someone to swoop in and solve it. Ben Gvir who walks around with a pistol, asserting outrageous things about Israeli-Arabs and Palestinians in the territory, offers a simplistic solution — i.e. with a little Jewish power, we can solve the Palestinian problem.

On a more tactical level, Ben Gvir received a great deal of support from current soldiers and recently released soldiers — many of whom are frustrated with the regulations on when they are authorized to open fire in the territories, and feel Ben Gvir will be able to grant them greater freedom to fire at demonstrators, rock throwers, etc. Second, Ben Gvir received strong support from Jews in the Negev (the South) who feel very threatened by Bedouin in their area. Crime perpetrated by Bedouin is a very real problem, and the Israeli police are incompetent, and do not do much. Ben Gvir has promised “to bring law and order to the Negev.” 

Ben Gvir also repeatedly calls for conferring the death penalty on terrorists, and deporting anyone who opposes the State. These troubling policies are popular with too many Israelis. All of these provocative positions resulted in Ben Gvir’s party growing exponentially, and to their becoming the third largest party in the country.

Netanyahu has created a Golem, and now it’s questionable he will be able to control him.

Next week I will try to look forward and examine what we can expect from Netanyahu’s sixth term.

DEFENSE

Violence and terror continued in the West Bank and Jerusalem. A 13-year-old Jewish girl was shot in Hebron. The shooting is thought to be the result of errant gunfire by Palestinians. Three Israel police officers were hurt in a stabbing attack in the Old City of Jerusalem. Meanwhile, Israel killed two Palestinians during a daylight raid in Jenin; one was a terrorist leader who had come out of hiding for his wedding, and the second person killed was 14-year-old killed in the exchange of gunfire.   

In supposed retaliation for the killing in Jenin rockets were fired last night at southern Israel.  They were all intercepted by Iron Dome. Israel retaliated by attacking a supposed rocket factory — which must be the most bombed factory in history.

Anniversary of the Rabin Assassination

Today, November 4th, is the 27th anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin. It was a traumatic day in Israel’s history, and unfortunately was one of the most successful assassinations in history. It changed the course of Israeli history for the worse. It is sad and ironic that the driving forces behind the new government, the Religious Zionist and their Otzma Yehudit faction (Ben Gvir), support allowing Prime Minister Rabin’s murderer out of jail.

 

A TASTE OF TEL AVIV— KAPARA MIO

RESTAURANT REVIEW, by Tali Schulman

This week, let’s check out my favorite casual pasta restaurant in Tel Aviv, Kapara Mio. Located in an incredibly unassuming spot of King George that looks like a hole in the wall, with tables outside. To the average passer by, Kapara Mio serves up some of the most delicious pasta dishes in the city. My favorite dishes are the spicy tomato salad and the Pasta Al Lemon, but all the pasta is fresh so you truthfully cannot go wrong. I was, however, pleasantly surprised by the desserts. In my experience, it is quite rare in Tel Aviv for restaurants to be great at both food and desserts, but Kapara Mios desserts exceeded my expectations — so don’t miss them next time you visit! It can get quite busy, and they do not take reservations, so your best bet to grab a table without a wait is to arrive early.

For more Tel Aviv restaurant recommendations, you can find me on Instagram @talischulman where I save all my food adventures in my highlights!