Momentous Week in Israeli Politics- A New President and Possibly a New Government
Israel week ending June 4th
Wednesday was one of the most momentous days in Israel's political history. Over the course of one day, a new President was elected, and with less than an hour to spare, the “Change Coalition” announced it had reached agreements with all its partners and a new government could be formed.
When the day dawned, TV networks pre-empted their regular programming for a full day of political reporting — first focusing on the election of the President and then, counting down toward the final answer to the question of whether or not the Change Coalition would be able to form a coalition before Yair Lapid’s mandate to do so expired.
The first matter of the day was the Presidency. While several people had considered a run for the office of Israel’s first citizen, the actual race came down to two candidates: Jewish Agency Chair and former head of the Labor Party Yitzhak “Bougie” Herzog, vs. Miriam Peretz, master educator, Israel Prize recipient. Herzog had lobbied for the job for more than a year, while Peretz only recently entered the race.
Israel’s Presidential election, decided by Knesset Members in a secret ballot, was widely believed to be Herzog’s to lose. In an unusual turn of events, almost every party gave their members freedom to vote for whomever they wished. Since it was a secret vote, there was always a chance that an upset could take place.
Peretz has a compelling story. She was born in Morocco brought up in poverty, and became an award-winning educator, who tugged at the heartstrings of every Israeli, after losing two of her sons in combat while they served in the IDF. She was a compelling candidate who was popular with the people.
At the same time, Herzog was the most establishment candidate in the country. The son of the 6th President Chaim Herzog, the grandson of Israel’s first Chief Rabbi, no candidate was more establishment, and no one was more experienced than Herzog. On top of all that, Herzog is considered by all to be a good guy. He was not ruthless enough to beat Netanyahu in 2015 for the Prime Ministership, but hardly a single Knesset member had a bad thing to say about him.
After Herzog was declared the victor, I heard from someone who said to me that the election proves how disconnected the politicians are from the people. In a sense, that person was correct. In a popular race, Peretz would probably have been elected. However, that is not our system.
In this case, it would appear that Knesset members across the entire spectrum decided that under Israel's current circumstances — both internationally, and in terms of constitutional issues —Israel needed someone with political experience to serve as President. It required someone whose English is excellent, and whose knowledge and understanding of the world's Jewish communities is deep … and besides, I’m sure they all wanted to have a Ramaz Graduate (my alma mater) as President. With 87 votes, Herzog’s victory was the largest in Israel’s history.
The Presidential vote was followed by a near love-fest that took place, as almost every Knesset member, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, jostled to congratulate Herzog— with most of them taking professional selfies with the newly elected President and his wife. It was an odd hour in a day punctuated with political drama and intrigue, as Bennet and Lapid worked to finalize the agreements with all parties before Lapid’s looming midnight deadline.
The final two significant obstacles to forming a new coalition, seemed almost impossible to solve. Ayelet Shaked raised a last-minute demand to become the government representative on the committee to select judges, a position already promised to Labor’s Meirav Michaeli. There were also additional requests that Ra’am the Islamist Party put forward. Ayelet Shaked’s demand, which given the normal balance of political power (coming from a party with only seven seats) would be almost inconceivable, would not be denied.
Shaked was considered the weak link in Bennet’s decision to become Prime Minister in the Change Coalition. I am not sure that is actually the case, and that her maneuver was not an elaborate game of chicken. Still, either way, everyone knew that in the end Michaeli would have to at least partially cave. None of Michaeli’s supporters would have forgiven her if Netanyahu remained in power because she insisted on maintaining her place on a Committee to pick judges, however important that appointment would be.
That dynamic prevailed throughout these negotiations, with both the New Hope Party and Yamina receiving more than their share of important posts, because of the understanding that the center-left had nowhere else to go. Of course, almost no party in this whole coalition could afford new elections, and that, of course, is the glue that holds this group together — More on that later.
The second problem was Mansur Abbas' escalating demands relating to land and illegal construction in the Negev. While there was a willingness to meet some of Abbas’ new demands (agreement had already been reached on a large financial package to develop infrastructure and improve education in Arab Israeli towns), it was clear that most of them were impossible to agree upon in the hours remaining. In the end, the Shura council (Islamic clerical council) approved Ra’am's joining the government. Thus, for the moment, the crisis is over and the coalition agreements are all signed. With less than an hour to go, President Rivlin received a phone call from Yair Lapid announcing his efforts to form a government had succeeded.
Most of the world’s media headlined the fact that Netanyahu was now going to leave office. While that is, at this point, the most likely scenario, it is not a given. Netanyahu is now applying immense pressure on the members of Bennet’s Yamina party to mutiny and vote against the proposed government. He is utilizing rabbis, activists, and threats of physical violence by some of his supporters to try to impose his point of view.
As you can see from my TV appearance this week with a Netanyahu loyalist, their major talking point is straightforward — they allege that the newly proposed government is “a government of far leftest that will endanger Israel.” In the end, if was a betting person; my guess is these efforts of sabotage will fail. If, in the end, even if one or two Yamina MKs defect, then at the last minute, MKs from the Joint Arab List will either abstain or vote in favor of the new government.
As to the proposed new coalition itself, I am more optimistic than many. Yes, it’s a problematic government, to say the least. And, if there were a real chance to negotiate a peace agreement with the Palestinians at this moment, that would be impossible for this government. However, that is not about to happen, and there are enough issues that unite this government to give it a fighting chance. First, and foremost, there is good governance. Almost every new cabinet minister is a significant improvement in experience and subject comprehension over the one he or she will replace.
The new cabinet ministers are serious people, who understand that the problem in the government is not just Netanyahu, but the chaos and incompetence he has left behind. So while the new government may not be united in how much government Israel should have, they are united in their belief that the government must be run well.
Furthermore, new government members believe in process. Israel has many long-term challenges beyond the Palestinian problem. To at least find a way to approach those difficulties requires a functional decision-making method that can address those problems. Unfortunately, Israel has not had a Master Plan for five years, and there has been no real effort at planning for the future for at least that long.
Yair Lapid, Naftalie Bennet and Mansur Abbas signing credit:Nawaf Nvari
The inclusion of Ra’am in the coalition is a very significant event; i.e., the inclusion of the Islamic Ra’am party in a government led by Naftali Bennett is an even more important event. Its implications are staggering:
Ra'am itself has broken a taboo of Arab parties not being part of the collective government of the “Zionists.”
The addition of Ra’am marks a pragmatic decision that the best way to improve conditions of Arab Israelis is by being part of the political process, and not by fighting it.
Most of Ra’am’s demands include items that almost all Israelis (except the most racist among us) can agree are good.
Despite the great strides made by Arab Israelis in nearly every field in the past decade, the infrastructure in their towns lag decades behind those in the Jewish cities. More importantly, almost no Arab Israel town or village has an approved master plan, making nearly all construction illegal. In a culture where a son marries and moves in with his parents by building an extension to their family home, this lack of sanctioned construction has been a disaster. This new government might well be the right one to make extensive progress in further integrating Arab Israelis into the country.
Finally, when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, clearly neither Bennett nor Sa'ar favors the two-state solution, (which is the only real solution in my opinion). Still, as I said before, the Palestinians are not ready to negotiate a final agreement, in any case. Both, however, are on record for wanting to decrease the conflict. One straightforward way of doing so is to find steps to improve the daily life of Palestinians. I think the new government will be open to doing so.
Lastly, and most importantly, this new government will be formed without any of the ultra-Orthodox parties. In the new coalition, Lieberman will serve as Minister of Finance, and one of his party members will head the all-powerful Knesset Finance committee. We might finally get a hold on all the different ways the country has been financing the ultra-Orthodox community, and then find ways to bring that funding under control.
I do not expect any revolutions, but if no unexpected outside events occur, I predict that the country will be in a better place after a few years of this government being in power.
Defense Minister Gantz made an emergency trip to Washington this week. It’s not clear what prompted the visit, or what was accomplished. Among the speculations reported in the Israeli press was the possibility of Israel requesting $1 billion in emergency aid to replenish the ordinances spent during the recent Gaza war. If that is the case, I strongly recommend against doing so. Israel does not need to stir controversy in Washington at the moment. Considering the size of our budget deficit on the one hand (large), and our current account surplus (very large), we should just finance our military needs, as necessary.