Israel Update Week Ending September 17th

Bennett-Sisi Meet, Iran, Covid and the Economy

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

This week, the most important event in Israel was the very public meeting conducted between Prime Minister Bennett and Egyptian President Sisi, in Sharm el-Sheikh. While former Prime Minister Netanyahu had several secret meetings with Sisi over the past few years, there had not been any public meetings since 2011. Sisi went out of his way to ensure the meeting was depicted as a warm and friendly encounter.

A few hours before the powwow was revealed, Egypt Air, the official Egyptian airline, announced that it would begin flying to Ben Gurion Airport. Until now, it was only Egypt’s Sinai Air operated unmarked planes on this route. With the Gulf states’ airlines flying into Ben Gurion, and Sisi's feeling he could now move Egypt's cold peace with Israel to a warmer peace, this was a good time for this announcement.

The meeting itself went well, and a gracious, cheerful rapport seemed to have developed between the two men. The one-on-one meeting between Bennett and Sisi was scheduled for 45 minutes and lasted three hours. Bennett has now had a series of good meetings with King Hussein, President Biden, and now President Sisi.

Bennett is scheduled to travel to New York later this month, to address the UN General Assembly. Next month, Bennett is expected to travel to Moscow to meet President Putin. Israelis are getting used to the fact that Israel's relations with the world are not solely due to Netanyahu's personal connections, but anchored by these nations' economic and strategic interests. On a personal level, Bennett does well just not being Netanyahu, whom most leaders do not trust.

Meanwhile, this week marked the first anniversary of the Abraham Accords, which brought about normalization between Israel and the Gulf States. The UAE embassy in Tel Aviv took out ads and billboards in celebration of this milestone. US Secretary of State Blinken is holding a virtual summit today with the Foreign Ministers of Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.

IRAN

Defense Minister Gantz stated in an interview, what should be evident at this point, i.e., that Israel would accept a return to JCOPA if it can be reached. When the history of this period is written, it will no doubt be said that the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the Iran agreement was one of the worst foreign policy decisions of the Trump Administration. However, the person responsible for that happening is Netanyahu — and not Trump, who was doing Bibi's bidding.

Netanyahu, however, should have known better and probably did. He should have understood that the Trump Administration was incapable of organizing an international coalition against Iran, and thus, any attempt to force Iran to make substantial concessions would fail. Furthermore, it was clear that the Trump administration could not present a credible military threat to Iran. Therefore, the result has been that Iran is now one month away from having enough fissionable material to make a nuclear bomb.

HOMELAND SECURITY

Four of the six prisoners that escaped from Gilboa Prison last week have been recaptured, without a struggle, or the need for bloodshed. The prisoners seemed to have had no plan for once they escaped, and had expected to be helped by local Arab Israelis. They were disappointed to find out that not only did Arab Israelis refrain from providing help, but instead, their capture was aided by the very people they were counting on for assistance.

Nevertheless, the escape did inspire some violence, with several stabbing incidents in the West Bank and Jerusalem. However, the Jerusalem incident seemed more like “suicide by Border Police” than an actual terror attack. The Islamic Jihad launched two missiles from Gaza, and a few balloons with incendiary devices were also released into Israel. Some commentators believe it's only a matter of time until there is a renewed confrontation with Gaza. However, the Egyptians are pressing Hamas hard not to allow that to happen. It’s unclear what those efforts might accomplish, so, while I think Israel needs to be ready, but I think an imminent clash is not inevitable.

COVID–19

Israel's daily Covid-19 infection numbers continue to be high, with close to 10,000 new cases per day on average, approximately half of whom are children. Yet, the government remains sticking to its guns, not imposing any restrictions on gatherings, as long as participants are vaccinated. They argue that thanks to the vaccines, the number of severe cases has remained steady(about 650). The fact that 10-20 people die from Covid every single day, well...

This week, for the first time, Prime Minister Bennett gave several interviews to Israeli media after he met with Egyptian President Sisi, while he comported himself well at those interviews, the one question he continually avoided answering was — “Are you willing to let people die every day for the sake of the economy?” Bennett kept returning to the same answer, i.e., lockdowns are terrible. However, the Prime Minister kept avoiding the fact there are numerous precautions possible to implement, which are all far less severe than a lockdown. This list includes canceling mass events, e.g., weddings with over 100 people indoors, mega concerts, and more.

Even worse, in my opinion, is the government's attitude that vaccines provide a “cure-all” that gives people the wrong message. Regardless of age, vaccinated people in this country appear to be neglecting to take any precautions — other than wearing masks. They attend large events, host many people in their homes, etc.

Instead of telling the public that although we are not enacting a lockdown, please use common sense before choosing whether to attend or host a significant group gathering — for instance, instead of inviting your entire extended family for the holidays, during Covid times, make a smaller gathering … and if you want to go out to eat, try to dine outside. Sadly, that message is not being circulated, and our numbers continue to be dangerously high.

Yes, vaccines work. Unvaccinated adults constitute 17% of the adult Israeli population, yet now account for 65% of all severe cases. Still, vaccines are not perfect. They are great at decreasing overall cases. When the number of cases is low enough, if you are vaccinated, your chances of getting the disease becomes very low. But it is simply a game of odds when the disease is widespread.

Finally, Israel's study on the effectiveness of the booster shot was published by NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine). The study showed that among those who were 60 plus (the cohort that received the initial shots first), the chance of contracting Covid was ten times lower two weeks after the third shot, compared to their peers who did not get the third shot. For severe Covid, the impact of the vaccine was even better. I do not understand why it's even an issue in America at the moment.

ECONOMY

Founded in 2016, Pagaya, a firm that manages assets for banks and pension funds at a lower rate using AI, has gone public through a SPAC, with EJF Acquisition at a valuation of $8.5 billion.

Papaya Global raised $250 million, at an unbelievable value of $3.7 billion. The company, founded five years ago, has raised a total of $440 million this year. Less than a year ago, Papaya Global raised $40 million, at a value of $$350 million; six months ago, it raised $100 million at a value of $1.2 billion, and now, the company just completed this new round with a valuation of $3.7 billion. According Papaya, which has developed a software platform to manage payroll, and other employee benefits for companies worldwide, its sales have been growing exponentially. The company expects to reach $100 million in sales this year.