Israel Update Week Ending June 10
Coalition Crisis,Iran, Lebanon, Government Deficit Zero
ON THE HOME FRONT
So, a game of chicken played out in Israeli politics this week. Unfortunately, no one blinked, and the government crashed (though it has not fallen yet). Every five years, the emergency regulations for Israeli governance in Judea and Samaria are raised for a vote of reaffirmation. These regulations establish Israeli law over Israeli citizens in the territory (in contrast to the military rule administered over all other residents). As I explained last week, the situation is problematic, but it has been the status quo for the past 55 years.
Unfortunately, two coalition members, Meretz MK Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi, the same legislator who left the coalition and then returned, as well as, MK Mazen Ghanaim from Ra’am voted against the reaffirmation of the regulations. Since the Likud and its allies all voted against re-affirming the regulations — even though they support the content of the bill, the bill failed. The vote was considered a test of the coalition and its ability to pass bills that required the support of all the diverse coalition members.
It’s unclear what those who voted against the bill expected from the government. No one promised an end to the occupation, just the opposite. Had the bill passed, the status quo would remain intact. The decision of the two coalition members to vote “No” has called into question the ability to include Arab-Israeli parties in any future coalition. Meretz is applying pressure on Rinawie Zoabi to resign, and allow the next person on the Meretz list to take her place. The same operation is taking place inside Ra’am.
If the pressure campaigns on these two MKs fail, then it’s only a matter of time before the government falls, and this experiment in governance flops along with it. It is very sad, especially since there has been almost zero appreciation for this government’s professional work. Nearly every current cabinet member is better, more competent and effective at their job than their predecessor in the Netanyahu government — and the results are evident to anyone who looks. But most do not look. Instead, unfortunately, many listen to the propaganda against the government.
At the moment, the coalition is still holding together, albeit by a thread. However, rumors are rampant of an attempt to create an alternative government, led by Netanyahu. Of course, for that to happen, it would require Gideon Sa’ar to agree to something he has repeatedly insisted he would not do. But he is a politician, so…
Amid the coalition crisis, Prime Minister Bennett made an unscheduled visit to the UAE to meet with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed. The stated purpose of the visit was to express condolences on the death of his brother. However, the real purpose may have to do with the next item …
IRAN
On Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution condemning Iran for refusal to cooperate in an investigation of two of its undisclosed nuclear sites. The Iranians responded by turning off the IAEA cameras at several atomic sites, and announcing they plan to increase their uranium output. The Iranian response to the expected vote by the IAEA came after a phone call between the Iranian President and Vladimir Putin. Supposedly, Putin urged Iran to return to the JCOPA. However, I can think of nothing Putin would like better than Iran distracting the West from Ukraine.
Iran’s actions seems to make the chances of a return to the JCOPA even less likely than they appeared to be last week. Yet, at the same time, there are reports the US is encouraging the creation of a defense alliance that would include much of the Sunni world and Israel. Two years ago, that idea would seem beyond belief, but this friendly association could be possible in today's changing Middle East.
US AND THE PALESTINIANS
For the moment, the re-establishment a US Consulate in East Jerusalem, for the Palestinians (which was closed under Trump), is not going to happen. The Biden Administration does not want to do anything that would undermine the already shaky Israeli government. So instead, the US announced that those assigned to liaison with the Palestinian Authority would not report to the US Ambassador in Israel, but rather, directly to the Middle East desk of the State Department.
Jewish World
In the meantime, the Jewish Agency has appointed Alon Bar as its new Director-General. Who is Alon Bar? Someone who viciously attacked the officials of the Ministry of Health for promoting Covid vaccines. He is an outspoken anti-vaxxer and has become the second most important person in the Jewish Agency. I have believed for many years that the Jewish Agency should be closed. Even more so with this latest appointment — Stop funding it and close it.
DEFENSE
According to reports, Israel attacked targets near Damascus twice during the past week. The attack last night was reported to be especially effective. The IDF is on a heightened state of alert in the North, in response to repeated threats by Hezbollah’s Nasrallah that he would stop Israel’s extraction of gas from the Karish field, located in Israel’s economic zone — although Hezbollah disputes that assertion. Nasrallah’s intentions remain undisclosed. Does Nasrallah seek to change the narrative in what has become a failed state of Lebanon under Hezbollah rule by starting a war? Moreover, what does his patron in Teheran want? We need to assume the worst, although it’s a very big unknown at the moment.
Rafael announced it has produced a new version of the Spike anti-take missile. The company said this new release is the first 6th generation anti-tank missiles. It has a range of 60 kilometers, after which a battery can fire a fuselage of missiles in seconds. According to Rafael, this new anti-take missile is more accurate and can defeat anti-missile technologies. It can also be easily handed off to two different controllers, one in the air and one on the ground.
ECONOMY & BUSINESS
Despite the possibility of a recession on the horizon, the Israeli economy is currently doing very well. Tax income is up — so much so that — for the first time in its history, Israel ran a budget surplus for the last five months in a row. Moreover, the current surplus has facilitated a projection for the entire year, in which Israel will have no budget deficit for the first time since 2008.
The annual list of the 500 most affluent Israelis was published this week. To make the list, an individual had to have a minimum of $140 million in assets. The total wealth of the individuals on the list is estimated at $360 billion. That is up from $80 billion, just ten years ago. That being said, please do not give any money to a general Israeli charity. Israel is wealthy enough to fund any needy project. If you really want to donate money, give it to a political, social, or economic cause you think needs some outside help.
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