GAZA WAR DAY 191: The Day After; What Happened Last Night? A Moment of Pride, What Does it Mean?

Tel Aviv Diary, April 14, 2024

The Tel Aviv denizens woke up today red-eyed—that is, if they went to sleep at all. There were no air raid warnings in the Tel Aviv metro area, but most of us remained glued to our TVs until a little after 4 AM, when it was announced that the attack from Iran was over: there were no more missiles. After six months of bad news almost every morning, the news was good today. Through their sleep-deprived faces, Israelis were smiling with pride and gratitude this morning. 

It's hard to explain the feelings of last night. The only experience I can compare it to was the first missile attack during the Gulf War. I remember the minutes waiting for those first missiles to land with our gas masks on, not knowing if the missiles heading our way had chemical weapons or even possibly nuclear warheads on them. It was not until the first missiles had landed and an all-clear was given that we breathed freely and understood that our fears may have been groundless.

Last night was somewhat similar, sitting and waiting, knowing that drones were slowly making their way toward Israel. The level of concern increased as first the Iranians announced that they had fired ballistic missiles at Israel, and then the IDF Spokesman announced that ballistic missiles were on the way. On one hand, I was not worried; I knew we had the Arrow Missile Defense. Although, if I had known at the time that over 100 ballistic missiles had been fired at Israel, I may have been more worried. The TV screens soon lit up with warnings for the areas in which it was expected that the missiles or the interceptors might impact. It was over very quickly; within minutes of the warnings, the screen was full of videos of intercepts, and then the warnings ended. Finally it was possible to breathe a sigh of relief. The CEO of Magen David Adom stated that there was a report of only one wounded person, a Bedouin girl in the Negev. It was then clear that the Iranian attack had failed.

So what happened? A reader asked whether we were just lucky. The answer is that luck always helps, but it was not merely luck that occurred last night. It was planning, planning, and technology. Planning created MEAD—Middle East Air Defense—a network of our friends and allies developed over the last six years to create an integrated air defense system. The American support was vital, including the fact that since the beginning of the war, the USS Eisenhower had been close enough to provide support. That integrated system, which includes the US, Great Britain, Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, allowed us to track all 100-plus drones and intercept them before they arrived at our borders; it also made it possible to intercept the 30 cruise missiles that were heading toward us.

Many were intercepted by our fighters far from our borders. The American, British, French, and Jordanian air forces publicly took part in the interceptions. The Jordanians even publicized the photo of King Abdullah II’s daughter, who is a fighter pilot in the Jordanian air force, stating that she downed five drones. Without the help from our friends and neighbors, we might have downed most of the drones, but some might have gotten through. The main show of the night was the downing of 98% of the ballistic missiles fired at us. The Arrow missile has been in development for over 20 years and despite constant improvements in the system, had never been tested against a real target until the attacks by the Houthis. However, while intercepting one missile is different from intercepting over 100 missiles simultaneously, the system operated better than the designers had even expected. Many of the missiles were intercepted in outer space before returning to Earth. Those that were not destroyed in space were destroyed at a later stage. Four missiles out of 80 aimed at the Nevatim Air Base got through. Two landed in open spaces, one landed next to a runway without damaging it, and one landed between two hangars, damaging the hangars but not the planes

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I have seen various posts in the media that Iran did not plan on actually causing much damage; after all, they announced that they were going to send drones. I do not accept this thesis at all. They no doubt assumed that most of the drones would be downed before they could arrive in Israel. However, they did not warn that they were planning to fire 120 ballistic missiles at Israel simultaneously. You do not do that unless you're hoping to succeed with a significant percentage of them. Even Israel did not expect that the Arrow would be so successful; it's clear that Iranians certainly did not anticipate this level of performance with over 100 targets to hit simultaneously.

Israel developed the most advanced missile defense system, and last night it worked—Israeli technology for the win. 

One of the positive developments of the last 48 hours has been the near-universal support we have received from many parts of the world and especially in the United States, those who criticized us only days ago. Hopefully, this shift will result in a quick passage of the Israel/Ukraine military aid package in the House of Representatives this week.

What now? I do not know what the government is going to do. There are reports that the war cabinet has decided we have to respond relatively soon, but exactly how to respond has not yet been decided. We have to respond to the Iranian attack, but not immediately and not necessarily kinetically; instead, possibly with a cyber attack. Whatever does happen, we need to build on the coalition that helped us defeat the Iranian attack last night and not take actions that might undermine it. Any response we engage in must aim to achieve an attainable strategic goal.

What are the strategic implications of last night? First and foremost, in the ongoing game of cat and mouse between defense and offense, the defense came out on top last night. In some ways, while the Iranian threat has not been neutralized, it has been minimized. The Iranians fired the most comprehensive simultaneous drone and missile attack in history, and it failed. There is no guarantee that such success can constantly be repeated, but the success changed the strategic balance. One final point: it was an expensive night last night. Over 100 Arrow missiles were fired. Each one costs more than $2 million. That does not include all the other missiles and expenses of the night.

EILAT

A Houtis drone was downed this evening by the Israeli Navy in the area of Eilat. 

HOSTAGES

Lost in last night's news was the response of Hamas to the latest American compromise offer to reach a ceasefire and a hostage release. With limited Israeli troops in Gaza and aid flowing in large quantities, Hamas seems to have no reason to compromise. Hamas is still demanding a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces in exchange for proceeding with the hostage deal. The White House tonight stated that Hamas must accept the American plan. But what if they don't? There are more and more voices saying we should give in to their demands since, at the moment, we seem to be accomplishing little in Gaza, and it is uncertain how much longer the hostages will be alive. Doing so will be very difficult, but I  but I'm not confident we have other choices.

THE POLICE AND DEMONSTRATORS

Retired Brigadier General Amir Haskel, aged 70, was arrested yesterday evening during a protest in Caesarea after allegedly participating in an "illegal assembly and rioting following a dispersal order".

Today, he was brought before the Hadera Magistrate's Court because he refused to agree to any conditions set by the police to post a bond. The hearing took place before Judge Ehud Kaplan in Hadera; at the hearing, it became clear that the police "forgot" to mention in their report on an event that they had blocked the road before the protesters lay down on it. The judge viewed a video of the event, and it became clear that the police had lied. He entered a blistering decision against the police.

"I have reviewed the investigation file and found no evidence that he rioted, no evidence that he blocked a public road", Judge Kaplan noted, repeatedly emphasizing that "the police blocked the road in Caesarea, and if he sat on the road, he did not interfere with traffic and there was no need to arrest him".

He noted that the declaration of the assembly as prohibited was made arbitrarily, "and it's hard not to believe that this was done because of the purpose of the protest rather than any disturbance to the public".

He criticized the police's demand that Haskel sign an undertaking, stating it was "only meant to humiliate him, as was his arrest". The judge wrote that it was not clear at all why he was arrested.

"There was no roadblocking here; the road had been blocked beforehand. The freedom to demonstrate also allows sitting on a road blocked by the police".

"It seems that the police do not act to protect the freedom of movement of citizens but something else entirely", said the judge.

He dismissed the case against Haskel as well as the 15 other people who were arrested.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

The Kastner Trial

A trial commenced in Jerusalem on January 1, 1954, revolving around a libel case. Dr. Rudolf Kastner, a government employee and former Chairman of the Jewish Rescue Committee of Hungary during the war, had been accused by Malkiel Greenwald of collaborating with the Nazis. Greenwald, a Polish immigrant since 1938, published a newsletter specializing in exposing corruption within the ruling Mapai Party. In a 1953 edition of his newsletter, he charged Kastner with profiting from Hitler's loot and murders, prompting the government to file a lawsuit against Greenwald for defaming a public servant.

Specific details of the case remain contentious to this day, yet the fundamental narrative is clear-cut. Adolf Eichmann, responsible for the extermination of Hungarian Jews, proposed a trade to Joel Brand, an associate of Kastner: war material in exchange for the lives of the Hungarian Jewish population. Brand traveled to Turkey, only to be detained by the British in Syria, and the Allies subsequently rejected Eichmann's proposal. Meanwhile, Kastner had negotiated with Eichmann, who, to demonstrate his sincerity, allowed 200 families to leave the country unscathed. Kastner provided a list of 1,685 Jews, including 388 from his hometown of Cluj, all of whom were permitted to depart for Switzerland in two special trains.

Throughout the trial, Greenwald's attorney, Shmuel Tamir, a former Etzel member and Cherut party affiliate, queried Kastner on why he had not warned Hungarian Jews of their impending deportation to Auschwitz. Kastner responded, stating that he was concerned that doing so might jeopardize the ongoing negotiations that he hoped would spare the majority of Hungary's Jews. As to allegations of Kastner's personal gain from the talks, evidence proved Kastner had arrived in Israel destitute beyond possibly saving some of his relatives.

Judge Benyamin Halevi issued a 300-page ruling on June 22, 1955, concluding that Kastner had not taken measures to warn Hungary's Jews. Halevi stated that Kastner had essentially sold his soul to the devil, leading to the dismissal of the libel case. The verdict sent shockwaves through Israel, causing Sharett's government to collapse.

Kastner's life met a tragic end on March 15, 1957, when he was ambushed and killed outside his Tel Aviv apartment by three assassins, later identified as supporters of the outlawed far-right militia, Lechi. In a turn of events, the Supreme Court overturned the lower court's decision in January 1958.