DAY 79 OF THE GAZA WAR: Israel Mourns Heavy Losses, Egyptian Hostage Proposal, Did Biden Stop Israeli Preempt on Hezbollah?
Tel Aviv Diary December 24, 2023
Today was yet another difficult day in Israel. Nine soldiers were killed over Shabbat, raising the weekend's death toll to 15. Every day, the names of those who have been killed are authorized for publication.
Some of the fatalities this weekend occurred in the North. Israel has withdrawn many of its troops from parts of Gaza, and civilians have returned along with them. Additionally, six soldiers were killed in a “Namer” (Leopard) Armored Personnel Carrier. Despite the Namers heavy level of protection, this was the second instance when an RPG penetrated the armored vehicle and killed all those inside. Like all defenses, none are 100% effective, and out of hundreds of RPGs fired at IDF Namers in Gaza, two were successful in breaching these metal beasts.
The IDF also found an extensive tunnel network, in which they recovered the bodies of five hostages who had died in captivity.
HOSTAGES
The Egyptians have proposed a three-part plan for the release of additional hostages. The first part calls for the release 40 sick and elderly individuals, in exchange for a two-week ceasefire and the release of 120 Palestinian prisoners. The second stage calls for the release of female soldiers and the bodies of dead hostages, in exchange for some terrorists, as well as initial negotiations to establish a Palestinian unity government run by technocrats to oversee the rebuilding of Gaza and govern the West Bank. The final stage calls for ending the war, along with Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of all remaining hostages.
Israel is amenable to the first stage of the Egyptian proposal, but will not consider the third stage. Some suggest Israel could agree to the first stage and then break the agreement. However, this is not a viable option with the Egyptians. Therefore, it is unclear whether the Egyptian initiative marks the beginning of new negotiations, or is merely another dead end. Hamas's primary goal is to maintain power, which is in diametric opposition to Israel’s stated war objectives.
BIDEN IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The story in The Wall Street Journal stating that President Biden prevented Israel from mounting a preemptive attack against Hezbollah on the fourth day of the current war has created a quite a stir in Israel today. Part of the WSJ story was misleading. Netanyahu never intended to start a full-scale war in the North, a sentiment that both Gantz and Eizenkot agreed upon when they joined the war cabinet. Therefore, Biden's role in Israel’s decision to refrain from preemptively striking Hezbollah remains unclear. Defense Minister Galant was willing to risk launching a surprise attack; one that would not escalate into a full-scale war, an outcome Israel wanted to avoid. Attacking Hezbollah, while fighting in Gaza, would have been a significant risk.
Netanyahu and Biden had a long conversation yesterday. Neither side was forthcoming regarding what was discussed. Some politician have voiced concern that Netanyahu is not standing up to Biden. This has translated into the some parents of IDF forces complaining that soldiers on the ground are not being adequately supported by corresponding levels of air and artillery assistance. While it's rare for a unit to request air support and not receive it, it's also evident that, at this stage of the war, Israel is judiciously conserving some of its munitions. This caution with mobilization of air support is due to a global shortage of munitions, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine — and has nothing to do with US pressure. Rather, there simply aren't enough munitions available globally for purchase.
A key takeaway from this war is Israel's need to become self-sufficient in producing basic explosives. While we manufacture missiles, artillery shells, and related ammunition, we lack the chemical industry infrastructure to produce the explosives themselves, which we currently import. Consequently, a decision has been made to invest in establishing these industries in Israel, which is one of the many lessons learned from this war.
VOLUNTEERS WELCOMED
A reader inquired about my opinion on volunteering in Israel for a one or two-week duration. I believe short-term volunteers are currently very beneficial. Israel lacks sufficient personnel to handle the workload in several areas (primarily in agriculture, though there are other needs). While American volunteers may not be as skilled as Thai workers who left, any assistance provided to farmers and other volunteer organizations is welcomed.
Today’s Zoom Briefing
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I promised to repost a brief history. Since my initial post, the number of subscribers to the Tel Aviv Diary has more than doubled. So, here it is:
A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT — by Marc Schulman
Jews have resided in Israel/Palestine since ancient times. Although the Romans exiled a significant portion of the Jewish population, a number of Jews remained. Modern Zionism emerged in the late 19th century, rooted in the belief that Jews needed their own nation to ensure their safety.
By 1947, Palestine was home to 600,000 Jews and 1.2 million non-Jews. The British who had been given the Palestine mandate, approached the United Nations (UN) to relinquish this responsibility. In response, the UN formed a commission that engaged with Jews, Arabs, and others to devise a solution. The resultant plan proposed partitioning Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states. The proposed Jewish state comprised areas that were predominantly Jewish, with the largely uninhabited Negev also included. Jerusalem was designated an international city.
On November 29, 1947, the UN approved this plan. While Jews of Palestine accepted the UN Partition Plan, the Arabs did not, leading to a civil war.
On May 14, 1948, as the British mandate concluded, Israel declared its independence. The next day, nations including Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon invaded the Jewish State. Israel was victorious. After the war, Israel’s borders extended beyond the partition's proposed boundaries.
During this conflict, approximately 600,000 Palestinians left their homes for various reasons — some by personal choice, others because of instructions from their leaders, and others due to forced evacuation by the Israeli military. After the war, the UN established a unique refugee commission, diverging from standard protocols by not facilitating refugee resettlement in other countries.
In June 1967, Israel faced threats from Egypt, leading to a preemptive Israeli strike. Despite Israel's plea for Jordan's neutrality, the ensuing Six Day War saw Israel gain control of Jerusalem's Old City and the West Bank. Immediately after the war, Israel stated it was willing to give back all the territories — with the exception of Jerusalem — in return for peace. In September 1967, the Arab summit ended with a resolution that stated NO peace with Israel, NO negotiations with Israel, NO recognition of Israel.
Over time, as peace prospects dimmed, Israel began establishing settlements in the West Bank and Gaza.
In 1977, Sadat came to Jerusalem and changed the psychology of the conflict. This led to a peace agreement signed between Israel and Egypt, under which Israel withdrew from all of Sinai desert captured in 1967.
In 1993, an accord between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) facilitated Israel's partial withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank town of Jericho, with further negotiations planned. The PLO recognized Israel, and reciprocally, Israel acknowledged the PLO as the Palestinian representative.
In November 1995, Prime Minister Rabin was assassinated.
In 2000, a summit at Camp David, attended by Prime Minister Barak and PLO’s Yassar Arafat, mediated by President Clinton, where Prime Minister Barak presented his proposal of a comprehensive peace plan. However, Arafat declined both this and an even more extensive subsequent offer proposed by President Clinton These refusals led to the second Intifada, during which over 1,000 Israelis perished in bus bombings and other suicide attacks.
In 2005, under the leadership of Ariel Sharon, Israel unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip and dismantled its settlements there.
In 2006, Hamas participated in the Palestinian legislative elections and secured a surprising majority. In 2007, Hamas seized power in the Gaza Strip. Since that time, Gaza has been under Hamas control, while the West Bank remains governed by the Palestinian Authority, which is led by Fatah.
When Hamas took control of Gaza, representatives of the Quartet (UN, US, Russia, and EU) met with its leadership. They stipulated that in order to receive international aid, Hamas would need to:
· Recognize the State of Israel.
· Renounce violence.
· Accept previously signed agreements between Palestinians and Israelis.
Hamas refused these conditions, leading to its international isolation. Consequently, Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza. This initiated a series of intermittent rocket attacks on Israel over the course of the last decade, leading to four brief wars.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a savage attack on the villages along the Gaza Border brutally killing over 1,200 people and taking 212 people as hostages (among them infants and senior citizens).
this history is so helpful. thank you so much. When I spoke to Federation here in Portland, Oregon, they said they would love to have what I was asking for. So I will give them a copy. And pass a lot of them out to my left friends. I so value the work you are doing and sharing your experience and knowing with us. It really is so important.