DAY 7 OF THE IRAN WAR • DAY 622 OF THE WAR: Surprise Morning Missile Strike Damages Beersheba Hospital; Israel Awaits Trump’s Response; Exit Strategy For Iran? Rescue Flights Accelerate

Tel Aviv Diary, June 19, 2025

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Our Next ZOOM BRIEFING will take place on Sunday, June 22nd

6 PM Israel Time • 4 PM GB • 11AM EST • 8AM PST

Invitations will go out on Sunday morning

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When I woke up this morning, I was struck by a rare sense of relief—thinking, “Wow, I had slept through the night without interruption.” One short missile barrage occurred around midnight—two rockets were fired, one of which was intercepted. There was some speculation that a different type of rocket had been used, but overall, the situation appeared relatively stable.

I’m usually up early—by 6:30 a.m. I was awake, and just before 7:00 a.m. I headed out the door with our dog for our normal morning walk. About six or seven minutes later, I reached the entrance to the nearby Dubnov Park. Along the way, I noticed a flurry of alerts about drones over the Galilee—many more than usual. However, as always, the Air Force intercepted every single one.

A fleeting thought crossed my mind: “Hmm, I wonder if this is part of a coordinated effort? Maybe an attack on Tel Aviv is imminent.” No more than a moment later, just as I entered the park with Milo, my phone buzzed with an alert: there would be a rocket or missile strike was expected in our area within minutes.

My route takes me past the deep underground parking garage beneath the Israeli Museum and the Israeli Opera. But I was already closer to the park entrance than to the shelter, and in that moment, I preferred to be at home with my family during the attack. So I ran.

Fortunately, the streets were completely empty. My dog, who loves to run, took off with me as I sprinted at full speed toward home. It’s only a short distance—roughly the equivalent of four or five city blocks—but even in decent shape, the sprint tested my limits at this stage in life. Milo, for his part, was thrilled by the unexpected burst of activity.

We reached the building, rushed down to the shelter, arriving before the rest of my family, who had still been asleep when the initial alert came through. It was another three or four minutes before the sirens finally sounded. By then, we had already sealed the heavy blast door and were waiting for whatever came next.

We heard a few distant booms—muted, possibly far off—but thankfully, nothing nearby. As we monitored updates on our phones, the first reports began to appear: missiles had landed in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, and one had struck a critical site in the south.

When we exited from the bomb shelter and returned to the apartment, the scale of the missile attacks quickly became clear. I headed back out to walk the dog, making up for the outing we’d cut short. During that time, reports confirmed that Iran had managed to breach Israel’s air defenses with 20 to 30 missiles—four of which made impact.

The first and most devastating strike hit a sensitive target in the south—Soroka Medical Center, the largest hospital in southern Israel. Fortunately, the missile struck the post-operative wards, which had been evacuated just a day earlier as part of a broader effort to gradually relocate all patients to secure underground facilities.

While 80 people were injured in the attack, most sustained only minor wounds and were treated on-site. Still, significant portions of the hospital are now temporarily out of service, and many patients have been transferred to medical centers across the country.

In Ramat Gan, a missile struck near a relatively new high-rise residential tower—30 or 40 stories tall, and clad in glass. All residents had taken shelter in their safe rooms, and only a few sustained minor injuries. However, the external damage was considerable: glass shattered across the area, and both the tower and several nearby buildings bore visible signs of impact. The strike occurred along one of Ramat Gan’s main thoroughfares.

In Holon, a missile struck an older residential neighborhood, causing significantly greater destruction. At least two buildings were effectively leveled, and four people sustained serious injuries. Remarkably, no fatalities were reported.

The fourth missile struck southern Tel Aviv, though initial reports indicated that the damage was relatively limited.

This morning's missile barrage is believed to have included a cluster warhead—designed to break apart upon impact or by remote command, dispersing multiple submunitions over a broad area. However, the explosive power of these submunitions appears to be minimal, causing little to no damage. In a country where most residents take shelter during an attack, the effectiveness of such weapons is likely to be limited.

There remains some uncertainty over whether any of the missiles launched this morning carried larger warheads. Iran is known to possess missiles with up to twice the explosive power of those used thus far, raising questions about whether any were deployed in today’s attack.

Later in the afternoon, 15 additional missiles were fired toward northern Israel—all were successfully intercepted. So, for now, the rate of missiles breaching Israel’s air defenses continues to stand at approximately 10%.

EASING OF RESTRICTIONS

Today marked the first time since the start of the operation in Iran that the Home Front Command eased restrictions on in-person work. Employees are now permitted to return to job sites that have adequate protective infrastructure. The decision, however, has sparked concern—particularly in light of the early morning strike. The decision was based on economic concerns and not necessarily an improved security environment.

The main risk is not necessarily the safety of workplaces themselves, but the exposure of civilians during commutes. Fortunately, the 7:00 a.m. strike occurred early enough that most people were still at home. Had it taken place closer to 7:30 or 8:00 a.m., the consequences could have been far more severe.

IRANIAN STRIKE ON SOROKA HOSPITAL

Following the strike on Soroka hospital, several government ministers arrived to visit and survey the damage. Defense Minister Israel Katz, employing a familiar and provocative analogy, remarked: “If during World War II we had known where to go to kill Hitler, we would have done so—so why not Khamenei?”

This recurring tendency to equate every enemy with the Nazis is incredibly problematic. Hamas are called Nazis, Iranians are labeled Nazis— any adversary that seeks to harm Israelis is cast in that mold. But it's worth remembering: since the establishment of the State of Israel, Jews are no longer defenseless victims awaiting slaughter.

Yes, Israel has many enemies—and some of them are undeniably brutal. And yes, he horrors of Hamas’ October 7th massacre will never be forgotten. Nevertheless, they are not Nazis, and neither are the Iranians. These are dangerous adversaries, who must be confronted and defeated. Still, the constant invocation of Nazi comparisons must end.

Notably, reports indicate that Prime Minister Netanyahu recognizes the problematic nature of Katz’s rhetoric—but either cannot or will not intervene to restrain it.

Israel continues to carry out strikes at will deep inside Iranian territory. Today, it destroyed the plutonium reactor at Arak—a facility that, while not operational, had been a central component of Iran’s broader strategy to develop nuclear weapons. Under the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the reactor was supposed to be dismantled—a step that was never fully implemented. Israel eliminated the threat today.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces continue to target missile launch sites and other military installations across the country.

BOMBER CAPABILITIES

Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the United States and a noted historian, published an interesting article today. In the piece, Oren recounts his attempts to persuade both the Obama and the first Trump administrations to sell Israel at least one B-52 bomber. The B-52, a long-serving U.S. strategic bomber capable of carrying a substantial payload—has been in service since before I was born—and remains one of the most formidable platforms in the American arsenal.

According to Oren, the Obama administration rejected the idea outright. The Trump administration expressed interest and explored the idea further, including the possibility of leasing a bomber to Israel or training an Israeli crew to operate it, but ultimately chose not to proceed.

A bomber of that size remains the only viable platform for delivering an extremely large bomb payload. If Israel possessed such an aircraft, it might no longer require American support for certain missions—raising the broader question of Israel’s long-term strategic independence.

In his article, Oren subtly advocates for Israel to pursue developing its own heavy bomber capability.

After reading Orens’ article, I had an idea regarding Israel’s ability to obtain its own heavy bomber capability. While designing a bomber from scratch appears improbable, perhaps once Israel takes delivery of new aerial refueling aircraft from the United States, Israel Aerospace Industries could consider retrofitting one of its existing tankers (old 707)—structurally similar to the B-52—to carry a large bomb. It's a speculative idea, but one that underscores a growing interest in self-reliance. Just a thought.

AND … WILL THE U.S. INTERVENE IN IRAN?

Tonight, we find ourselves much the same position as the night before—uncertain whether President Trump will ultimately choose to act. Television panels are filled with self-styled "Trumpologists," all attempting to predict his next move. Quite frankly, they have no idea.

My own assessment is that President Trump will exhaust every possible avenue to avoid military engagement, hoping Tehran will agree to a version of his terms. If the Iranian leadership is pragmatic, they might—but questions of national pride could stand in the way. History shows that dictators perceived as weak rarely remain in power for long.

This evening, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the President will make a decision within two weeks. Whether that timeline is genuine or simply a smokescreen for more immediate action remains to be seen.

WHAT IS ISRAEL’S EXIT STRATEGY?

The central question remains: What is Israel’s exit strategy? Initiating conflict has never been the challenge; finding a way to end it has always proven far more complex. That said, Israel appears to have managed the situation in Lebanon with relative success—at least for now.

The prevailing hope is that the United States will step in. Should it choose not to, there is speculation that Washington might use Israel’s military gains as leverage to extract a stronger agreement from Iran. While possible, that outcome remains uncertain. The worst-case scenario is a drawn-out war of attrition—one that could keep Israeli civilians running to shelters for weeks and inflict significant damage on the national economy.

INTIAL RESCUE MISSIONS BEGIN AND CONTINUE…

Israeli airlines continue operating rescue missions to bring home citizens stranded abroad, with the number of flights steadily increasing. Israir, owned by businessman Rami Levy—who typically avoids operating flights on Shabbat due to religious observance—will fly this coming Shabbat.

Tonight, in a separate development, El Al announced that it has received rabbinical approval to operate several emergency flights for ill Israeli citizens. One flight is departing from New York this evening, and another from Bangkok, both aimed at bringing Israelis safely back home.

LAST, BUT NOT LEAST … ANTISEMITISM

Earlier this week, The New York Times published a powerful editorial on antisemitism—one that articulated the issue with clarity and precision. Antisemitism Is an Urgent Problem. Too Many People Are Making Excuses. Yet, today, the paper's front page prominently featured a story about the rising civilian death toll in Iran.

In a recent interview, New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani attempted to portray the slogan “Globalize the Intifada” as a call for Palestinian civil rights. One can only hope his message falls flat—and his candidacy follows suit.

TEL AVIV DIARY PODCAST — A HOUSEKEEPING NOTE

For those awaiting a new podcast episode: I had a great prerecorded episode lined up for release this week. However, since it was recorded before the latest developments in the war, I chose to hold off, and scheduled an interview with someone from the defense world. But understandably, he was called up for reserve duty. That said, a new episode will be released tomorrow—either featuring a guest or solo commentary.