DAY 67 OF THE GAZA WAR: Biden vs Bibi, More Tragedies, Houthis Up the Stakes

Tel Aviv Diary, December 12, 2023

Today marked another day of fighting in the three concentrated areas of Gaza, with continued, intense face-to-face combat. Every building must be examined slowly and meticulously, as every single one could be booby-trapped. This stage of combat is clearly taking a toll, evidenced by the fact that today alone, Soroka Hospital received 30 newly wounded soldiers. I also heard at least two helicopters overhead en route to Ichilov Hospital, where the most seriously injured are treated

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GOVERNMENT FAILS TO APPROVE RETURN OF SOME WEST BANK WORKERS

On Sunday night, the security cabinet met to discuss the possibility of allowing some Palestinian workers to return to work inside Israel. Based on the recommendations of the Army and security services, Prime Minister Netanyahu was in favor of permitting some Palestinian workers to return. Leaders of Israel’s security establishment are very concerned that 160,000 Palestinians are no longer earning an income, and fear that this widespread loss of gainful employment could contribute to a probable increase in violence.

In addition, the absence of Palestinian workers has had a detrimental impact on two industries: building and agriculture. To some extent, the shortage of agricultural workers can be partially compensated for by the whirlwind of volunteers inside Israel who have been working in the fields, replacing both Palestinians and Thai workers. The novice volunteers are not as effective as the workers they replaced, but the work is getting done. However, volunteers cannot replace construction workers.

The right-wing of the government strenuously opposed allowing Palestinians to return to work in Israel, claiming that doing so will endanger Israelis. In reality, right-wing Knesset members are not overly concerned that Palestinians could resort to increased violence in the West Bank, as that would support their narrative. Ultimately, Netanyahu did not call for a vote since he did not have the necessary support.

MORE HEARTBREAKING NEWS

Today brought news that was saddening on multiple levels. The IDF announced it had retrieved the bodies of Eden Zaharia and Sergeant Zeev Dado. Zaharia, who attended the Nova Dance party, was kidnapped after being wounded. Dado, a soldier in the Golani Brigade, was killed on October 7th, while on his way to rejoin his unit. Until a few weeks ago, Eden was thought to be alive. The bodies of these two Israelis were retrieved by an IDF special force unit, found under a command post of the Northern Commander of Hamas, which had been abandoned. The Hamas commander's two brothers, who are now prisoners in Israel, seem to have given up that information. What makes the retrieval of those two bodies particularly heartbreaking is that two soldiers, (including the son of Gadi Eizenkot) died during the operation. The IDF has made a strategic decision to prioritize retrieving bodies, to facilitate their burial back in Israel.

HOUTHIS ESCALATE

The Houthis escalated tensions today by attacking a Norwegian oil tanker scheduled to stop in Ashdod next month. The vessel was not headed to Israel during its current voyage. The Houthi threats have convinced most shipping companies to avoid sailing to Eilat, opting for Ashdod or Haifa instead — sometimes traveling around the Horn of Africa, thus substantially increasing shipping costs. The US and its allies seem close to taking action to remedy the Houthi problem. The question remains, what that action will be. Israel has sent its largest frigate, a SAAR-5, to the Red Sea for the first time, to help defend against the Houthis.

UP IN THE NORTH

The Lebanese border was particularly violent today, with Hezbollah firing deeper into Israel, including towards Akko. Their anti-tank strikes have destroyed several homes in the town of Metula. So far, the expectation is that Hezbollah does not want an all-out war— however, whether or not that will continue to be true remains uncertain.

BIDEN & BIBI

Yesterday, at the White House Hanukkah Party, President Biden stated that “he loves Bibi, but does not agree with him on anything.” Today, Biden stated that Bibi must change the members of his government. President Biden went on to say that accepting the theoretical idea of a Palestinian state is essential; without it, the future of Israel is in danger. This boils down to what I have been writing since the beginning of the war: Israel needs to have a vision for the day after the war in Gaza ends … Without that vision, we will lose the war.

In addition, Biden stated that Israel is losing support due to its seemingly indiscriminate bombing. While I too am troubled by what sometimes seems to be a high civilian death toll, the facts are somewhat different. Israel has killed 7,000 Hamas terrorists, maintaining a 2:1 ratio of combatants vs population. While still tragic, this ratio is better than the ratio of the death toll caused by the U.S. in Afghanistan, which was 3:1, or in Iraq, which was even higher. There are 2.3 million people living in Gaza. With 10,000 civilians killed, this amounts to less than 0.005 percent. Israel asked all the residents of Northern Gaza to evacuate to southern Gaza; most did so, but of course, some did not listen.

Israel has also given explicit instructions to Gazans in Khan Younis, indicating where the IDF plans to operate — thereby, allowing civilians to move out of the way, even though these instructions also informs Hamas of the IDF’s plans.

In Khan Younis, Israel is engaging in house-to-house ground combat, rather than using the full firepower of its tanks and Air Force as it did in northern Gaza, (the area from which most of the civilians had moved away). Every innocent civilian killed is a tragedy. Israel is doing the best it can to fight and limit civilian deaths in a war it did not start

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POLITICS

A new poll was released today, once again showing support for Netanyahu at a new low, with the opposition easily forming a government.

Three alternative scenarios were also tested in the above mentioned opinion poll. One scenario quantifies Former Prime Minister Bennett running again for Knesset. In this poll, Bennett secures 12 seats, mostly at the expense of Benny Gantz’s party. In the scenario where Yossi Cohen (former head of the Mossad) runs, Cohen also earns 12 seats. My sources tell me that if Cohen decides to run, it will likely be with Netanyahu's support, as a way to attract votes from those who don’t want to vote for Netanyahu directly, then Cohen will ultimately support Netanyahu following the election.

An intriguing scenario is expected if Yair Golan was to lead a joint Labor-Meretz list. It's important to note that in the current poll, Labor does not pass the threshold, and Meretz receives four seats. A Yair Golan led list gains 12 seats, which illustrates the personality-driven nature of our politics. Yair Golan, former IDF Deputy Chief of Staff, became a national hero for his actions rushing out to the Gaza envelope and rescuing people on October 7th.

Netanyahu has responded to his poor polling numbers by starting his election campaign. At a Knesset Committee meeting, Netanyahu claimed the events of October 7th were “no worse than the outcomes of the Oslo Accords.” For perspective, during the four-year intifada, which could be attributed to Oslo, 1,030 Israelis were killed. Over 1,200 were brutally murdered in one day on October 7th, not to mention those who were raped and kidnapped.

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