DAY 649 OF THE WAR: Israel Gets Drawn Into Fight Between Syrian Government and Druze; Shas Quits the Government; US Ambassador Crosses a Line

Tel Aviv Diary, July 16, 2025

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Our Next ZOOM BRIEFING will take place on Sunday, July 20th

6PM Israel Time • 4PM GB • 11AM EST • 8AM PST

Invitations will go out on Sunday morning

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No significant progress was reported today on the hostage front—for 50 hostages still in captivity; 49 for 649 days and one for 4,000, and counting. The days continue to slip by, the number of hostages remains unchanged, and any sense of urgency on the part of the government appears absent. It’s a reality that’s difficult to grasp—and even harder to accept.

SYRIA AND THE DRUZE

Another confusing and volatile day unfolded in Israel—this time stemming from an unexpected front. Last night, I wrote about what appeared to be limited Israeli airstrikes targeting Syrian tanks in a Druze village in the Golan Heights. As I was finishing yesterday’s installment of Tel Aviv Diary, reports indicated that a ceasefire had been reached and the incident had concluded. That, at least, was the picture as it stood.

By morning, however, the situation had turned 180 degrees, catching many off guard. Fresh reports emerged of additional Druze civilians killed by forces aligned with the Syrian regime. The news sparked outrage within Israel’s Druze community, which demanded immediate government intervention to protect their brethren across the border— especially in light of the community’s long-standing loyalty and service in the IDF. In response, Israel escalated its actions: issuing stern warnings to the Syrian regime, launching targeted airstrikes on forces attacking Druze areas, and even conducting symbolic bombings in Damascus.

For a time, it appeared as though a broader confrontation with Syria was imminent. Tensions escalated amid indications that the IDF was preparing for a multi-day operation, with a paratrooper brigade sent toward the northern border. Compounding the sense of urgency were claims that more than a thousand Israeli Druze had crossed into Syria to support their embattled community.

It was striking to recall that just a week ago, there was talk—some of it even light-hearted—about the prospect of a peace agreement with Syria. Conversations floated about eating hummus in Damascus and the possibility of Syria joining the Abraham Accords. Now, seemingly overnight, war with the Syrian regime felt like a plausible scenario—an unexpected escalation from a front few had been watching closely.

How events spiraled out of control spiraled so rapidly remains unclear. Targeting the Druze—given their deep-rooted ties to Israel—seems an unlikely move for a Syrian government with little to gain from provoking a wider conflict. Yet just as uncertain is the extent to which Damascus actually controls the array of militias acting in its name. In a fractured and volatile landscape, intent and authority do not always align.

The Israeli strikes on Damascus were intended to send a strong message to the Syrian regime—a signal that Israel was taking the situation of the Druze with utmost seriousness. Whether those bombings were a necessary show of force or an overreach remains a matter of debate.

As of this evening, there are once again multiple reports suggesting that Druze leaders and the Syrian government have agreed to a ceasefire and are seeking a path to de-escalation. Whether that truce will hold is anyone’s guess. The last thing Israel needs is the opening of a new front with Syria. This evening US Secretary of State Rubio announced that an agreement had been reached to end the fighting. There were reports that Syrian Army forces were withdrawing from the area tonight.

Perhaps the most alarming—and revealing—development of the day is the estimated 2,000 Israeli Druze who managed to cross into Syria. While most have begun returning, the risk of kidnappings remains high. Most were unarmed, and their ability to cross the border without resistance points to a serious lapse in IDF readiness at a moment when vigilance was needed most.

GAZA

IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir visited Gaza today, telling troops that the objectives of Operation Gideon’s Chariots had been achieved and that the military now controls 75% of the territory in Gaza—though that figure is being disputed by some defense analysts. Zamir noted that Israel now stands at a critical juncture: ideally, the government would reach a ceasefire agreement and secure the return of the hostages. Failing that, he said, Israel could further expand its territorial control in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the IDF presented a revised plan for the so-called “humanitarian city,” during a meeting last night, claiming it could be built within just two months at a cost of two billion shekels. One can only hope those estimates are never tested—because the very premise of this so-called humanitarian city remains absurd, and at best, deeply misguided.

All the soldiers killed in operation Gideon’s Chariots

There was more fighting in Gaza today.

REFUTING FALSE CLAIMS OF GENOCIDE

One of our readers flagged a New York Times op-ed accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, authored by someone presenting himself as an expert on the subject. I won’t engage with the piece directly here, as we’ve scheduled an upcoming podcast with a genuine authority on genocide to address the issue more fully. (He was set to join this week but had to postpone.)

That said, two points are worth making. First, and regrettably, I have little doubt that Israel—like any military operating in densely populated urban areas—has likely committed violations that may amount to war crimes in Gaza. But to date, there is no credible evidence supporting the charge of genocide.

Just today, Israel’s Gaza Humanitarian Foundation reported that 20 people were killed in a stampede at one of its aid distribution centers, blaming Hamas for the chaos. Civilian deaths continue daily as the IDF targets remaining Hamas operatives. On Thursday, the army acknowledged it had unintentionally killed nine children in a strike aimed at a Hamas commander. This time, at least, they acknowledged the mistake. Still, it’s hard to escape the sense that the IDF is operating with less restraint than in the earlier phases of the war—and at this point, the rationale for continued civilian casualties is wearing thin.

SHAS QUITS COALITION, GOVERNMENT LOSES MAJORITY

In a major political development, the Shas party announced withdrawal from the coalition— citing the continued failure to reach a draft law agreement and what it described as damage to the yeshiva system. While the Shas party stressed that it would not join forces with the opposition to bring down the government—and would continue to support the coalition on many votes—it is no longer a formal member.

This move leaves the government with just 49 seats, reducing it to a minority. While this doesn't automatically trigger new elections, it introduces a significant constitutional wrinkle: Can a minority government be considered a transitional one? If so, its powers may be limited in key areas—such as the authority to dismiss the Attorney General. That question, for now, remains unresolved.

TOMORROW’S PODCAST will feature a timely discussion of these legal issues. I’ll be joined by Professor Edo Baum, a veteran legal analyst with more than three decades of experience covering Israel’s judiciary.

US AMBASSADOR CROSSES THE LINE

In an unprecedented breach of diplomatic protocol, a foreign ambassador to Israel appeared at Prime Minister Netanyahu’s trial today. While his attendance alone might have been overlooked, it was his remarks afterward that drew sharp attention.