DAY 628 OF THE WAR: Seven Israeli Soldiers Killed in Gaza; Signs of Progress on Hostage Deal; Conflicting Claims of Damage to Iranian Nuclear Program
Tel Aviv Diary June 25, 2025
Last night, I had written a section in the diary titled “Return to Gaza.” By the time of posting, I was already aware that a serious incident had taken place there just hours earlier—though the full scope was still unclear. Of course, I refrained from sharing any details—as rumors of Israeli casualties spreading online before families had been officially notified would have been the worst possible outcome.
The story proved to be devastating. Seven Israeli soldiers were killed yesterday after a Hamas terrorist planted an improvised explosive device (IED) on an Israeli armored personnel carrier (APC). The blast ignited a fire inside the vehicle. Nearby, soldiers rushed to extinguish the flames, but were ultimately unsuccessful. The burning APC was later towed back into Israeli territory from the Khan Younis area—by then, it was far too late for the seven soldiers trapped inside.
The incident raises urgent questions—chief among them: why were the soldiers traveling in an outdated armored personnel carrier, the same model used by the IDF in the 1980s? The answer is grim: Israel simply does not have enough modern APCs. The newer models are equipped with advanced defensive systems and offer significantly greater protection against IED attacks.
The attack has once again forced a central question to the forefront: what are we doing in Gaza?
The current operation was initially expected to last two months. By that point, Israel was supposed to control 75% of Gaza, cripple Hamas, and enable the delivery of humanitarian aid to all Gazans. Two months later, those goals remain largely unmet. At best, we may now control 5% more of Gaza than we did at the outset.
So what have we actually achieved? A significant number of buildings have been destroyed, and some tunnels have been cleared—but Hamas still maintains a vast underground network and continues to hold large swaths of Gaza. Meanwhile, displaced Gazans from the south have begun returning north. The original plan was to clear and hold the north, yet recent reports indicate that some 500,000 Gazans have moved back into Gaza City and surrounding areas.
Progress, if any, appears minimal. Hamas has neither been broken nor agreed to release hostages or surrender. So, the question now being asked—both on the ground and at the highest levels—is increasingly blunt: what, exactly, are we doing in Gaza—and why?
Even members of the government are now voicing doubts. Ultra-Orthodox Knesset member Moshe Gafni, who chairs the powerful Finance Committee, openly said today, “I do not understand why we are in Gaza at the moment. What are we trying to accomplish?”
Gafni’s remarks drew immediate criticism from the committee’s director general, a political appointee aligned with Bezalel Smotrich’s party—who responded, “Only someone without children fighting would not understand why we’re fighting in Gaza.” Still, I’m not aware of a single military correspondent, analyst, or expert who can clearly articulate what we’re achieving at this stage—or what realistic objectives remain.
As I mentioned earlier, the soldiers who were killed had been traveling in an outdated armored personnel carrier—one that lacks the protective systems of newer models. The fallen soldiers were part of an engineering unit tasked with demolishing a tunnel or building.
Someone will have to look those soldiers’ families in the eyes and explain what was so urgent that it couldn’t wait until a safer vehicle became available. What building was so critical to demolish? After nearly two years of war—what tunnel was so vital that it had to be cleared yesterday rather than next week? These are questions that demand answers.
Under normal circumstances, a million people would be out on the streets tonight, demanding an end to the war—but they’re not.
Late this afternoon, I ran into a friend I hadn’t seen in over a month.
We looked at each other, and he asked, “How are you?”
I replied, “How can I be?”
He nodded and said, “Yes… how can we be?”
I added, “How can people go on like this? How can we go on like this?”
He just shrugged and said, “Hard to believe, but somehow we are.”
Someone else asked me how people in Tel Aviv are doing right now. I answered simply: everyone is shell-shocked. You can see it in their faces. On some days, it’s written across every expression. The emotional whiplash—from yesterday’s “good news” of the ceasefire to this morning’s devastating report of seven fallen soldiers—has made daily life feel unbearable.
50 HOSTAGES
Today, President Trump said that significant progress had been made toward a ceasefire and securing a hostage deal in Gaza. Hamas representatives echoed that message, claiming advanced negotiations are underway. In Israel, however, officials have denied any such developments.
Fifty hostages remain in captivity. They must come home—immediately. Everything else is secondary. Everything else can wait.
DEBATING THE DAMAGE: CONFLICTING CLAIMS OVER IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM
A strange dispute has emerged in Washington, DC over the past 24–48 hours— and it's now reverberating in Israel. At the center of the debate is a critical question: how much damage did the bombing campaign actually inflict? Was Iran’s nuclear program destroyed, merely delayed, or largely untouched? What’s the real story? President Trump has publicly declared that the Iranian nuclear program had been eliminated. However, the full picture remains far from clear.
However, The New York Times and CNN soon reported on a classified intelligence assessment—apparently issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)—which concluded that Iran’s nuclear program had been set back by only a few months. The DIA assessment was issued with a “low confidence” rating, indicating it was based on limited or uncertain information rather than verified intelligence data. Such ratings often suggest that analysts were asked to produce a judgment despite the absence of solid evidence. This is what I said on the the matter earlier today:
The notion that anyone can accurately assess the extent of the damage at Fordow without boots on the ground is unrealistic. What is known is that the bombs were dropped on their intended targets. But what actually happened underground remains unclear—unless anonymous sources emerge with definitive evidence.
My suspicion is that confirmation bias may be influencing the narrative. Those skeptical of the efficacy of the bombings likely assumed they had failed—and may have played a role in shaping the DIA report.
Nevertheless, media outlets such as The New York Times and CNN treated this preliminary intelligence as conclusive, using it to cast doubt on President Trump’s claims. The narrative quickly gained traction—so much so that veteran journalist Jonathan Alter, a longtime Newsweek political correspondent, wrote on his “Old Goats” Substack that this was “Trump’s Bay of Pigs—but worse.” (For reference, the Bay of Pigs refers to the failed 1961 U.S.-backed invasion of Cuba under the Kennedy administration.) In effect, a storyline has now emerged claiming that the bombing of Fordow failed—despite a lack of conclusive evidence.
Perhaps the bombing of Fordow did fail—though that seems unlikely—but the truth is, we simply don’t know. Israeli sources maintain the operation was a success: sustained heavy damage, Natanz was completely destroyed, and a significant quantity of enriched uranium stored in Isfahan was obliterated.
However, without independent verification, none of these claims can be confirmed with certainty. Tonight, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated:
According to the assessment of senior Intelligence Directorate officials, the damage to the nuclear program is not surgical but systemic—the cumulative achievement allows us to state that the Iranian nuclear project has suffered severe, wide-ranging, and deep damage, setting it back by years. We will not allow Iran to produce weapons of mass destruction.
Tonight, CIA Director John Ratcliffe released the following statement:
CIA can confirm that a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran’s Nuclear Program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes. This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable and accurate source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years. CIA continues to collect additional reliably sourced information to keep appropriate decision-makers and oversight bodies fully informed. When possible, we will also provide updates and information to the American public, given the national importance of this matter and in every attempt to provide transparency.
Earlier today, President Trump made a puzzling claim: that Israeli agents had entered
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