DAY 607 OF THE WAR: Another Soldier Killed in Gaza; Ultra-Orthodox Poised to Call New Elections Over Failed Bid For Draft Exemption; Update on Iran Talks

Tel Aviv Diary, June 4, 2025

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Our Next ZOOM BRIEFING will take place on Sunday, June 8th

6PM Israel Time • 4PM GB • 11AM EST • 8AM PST

Invitations will go out on Sunday morning

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This morning, a solemn announcement was released: "Hutar L’pirsum”. Last night, reports emerged confirming the death of another Israeli soldier in Gaza. The fallen was St.-Sgt. Maj. (res.) Alon Farkas, 27-year-old reserve soldier from Kibbutz Kabri, serving in the 6646th Reconnaissance Battalion of the 646th Brigade. Farkas was killed in northern Gaza, in a zone where the IDF has been operating since the outset of the current campaign. This was Farkas’s fourth deployment since the war began.

.According to the IDF, Farkas was fatally shot at close range by a Hamas operative who emerged suddenly from a tunnel and opened fire on him and two other soldiers. Farkas was killed instantly, and the two others were wounded. The attacker then retreated into the tunnel and disappeared.

ELECTIONS BREWING OVER ULTRA-ORTHODOX DRAFT EXEMPTION BILL

Despite the ongoing fighting in Gaza, the focus in Israel today shifted sharply to politics. In recent weeks, I’ve written repeatedly about the looming coalition crisis over the ultra-Orthodox draft issue. Until now, I assumed the tensions were genuine but ultimately containable. After all, as I noted just days ago, the ultra-Orthodox parties have no realistic political alternative and were expected to remain in the coalition—even without securing the draft legislation they’ve long sought.

Today, that assumption is being put to the test. It now appears—emphasis on appears—that we may be witnessing the final days of this government. A vote to dissolve the Knesset could come as early as next week.

What changed? The ultra-Orthodox rabbinical leadership issued an ultimatum: resolve the draft exemption crisis by Shavuot. Prime Minister Netanyahu pledged to make the issue a top priority. But Netanyahu’s efforts hit a political wall—namely, MK Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, who has insisted he will only support legislation that mandates real ultra-Orthodox conscription. With Edelstein holding his ground and the Shavuot deadline now behind us, no compromise has materialized.

The impasse has set the stage for a potential political collapse. The ultra-Orthodox parties feel betrayed, and Netanyahu appears unable—or unwilling—to push through legislation that meets their demands. As a result, the prospect of early elections is once again on the horizon.

In the midst of a prolonged and painful war, with soldiers still falling in Gaza, Israel now faces the possibility of a renewed political crisis—one driven not only by ideology or religion, but by the inherent fragility of a coalition stretched beyond its limits.

Yesterday, a critical meeting was held between representatives of the ultra-Orthodox parties and MK Yuli Edelstein. During the discussion, Edelstein made it unequivocally clear that he would not agree to remove the clause on “personal responsibility”— which imposes individual sanctions on those who evade military service. These penalties include restrictions on obtaining a driver’s license, traveling abroad, receiving subsidized mortgages, and qualifying for government-funded childcare, among others.

Ultra-Orthodox representatives had apparently expected Edelstein to back down and soften his stance. But given the prevailing national mood—especially on a day when three IDF soldiers were killed in Gaza—there was little chance of that happening.

Public sentiment in Israel is increasingly firm: it is increasingly seen as unacceptable for the ultra-Orthodox sector to receive state funding while continuing to avoid military service. Many view it as fundamentally unfair that non-Haredi parents live in constant fear for their children on the battlefield, while ultra-Orthodox families are spared that burden. The resentment has been building for years—but now, it appears to have reached a tipping point.

Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community is composed of three distinct factions. The first are the Hasidim, who follow dynastic spiritual leaders. The second—and largest— are the “Lithuanian” or Mitnagdic community, led by non-Hasidic rabbis. The third is the Sephardic Haredi community, represented politically by the Shas party. While not all Shas voters are ultra-Orthodox, the party draws support from Sephardic Jews with its message of restoring the spiritual and cultural prominence of Sephardic tradition.

Among these groups, the Hasidic rabbis—most notably the head of the Belz Hasidim, Israel’s largest Hasidic sect—have been the most outspoken in calling for withdrawal from the coalition. Initially, the other ultra-Orthodox factions hesitated, but following yesterday’s meeting with Edelstein, the leaders of the Lithuanian community shifted course and also endorsed leaving the government.

In the Sephardic sector, the Shas party convened this evening to determine its stance. Despite Aryeh Deri’s longstanding personal ties to Prime Minister Netanyahu, he ultimately concluded that Shas had no choice but to follow the other ultra-Orthodox factions.

Historically, Shas has been highly attuned to the religious expectations of its base and reluctant to be perceived as less devout than its Ashkenazi counterparts. Once both the Hasidic and Lithuanian factions committed to exiting the coalition, Shas faced mounting pressured to align with them—even though Shas’s voter base includes a broader spectrum of support for Netanyahu compared to the other Haredi parties.

In short, what once appeared to be a manageable political crisis is now rapidly escalating into a full-blown, coalition-breaking showdown.

So where do things stand now?

All three factions of the ultra-Orthodox community—together holding 17 seats in the Knesset— now endorsed the call for new elections. With backing from the opposition, that’s more than enough to begin the process of dissolving the Knesset.

However, the opposition was caught somewhat off guard. Although they had prepared legislation to dissolve the Knesset and placed it on the agenda, procedural delays prevent it from being formally presented until next Wednesday. And in Israeli politics, a week is a very long time—anything can happen.

Even if the bill passes its first reading, it must still clear additional votes, and the timeline remains fluid. Moreover, once the bill passes, a critical question will loom: when will the elections actually be held?

It’s widely expected that Prime Minister Netanyahu will try to delay the elections for as long as legally possible. The ultra-Orthodox parties may be inclined to go along with this tactic, as any postponement allows them to retain control over key ministries—positions they are unlikely to relinquish willingly. These ministries not only provide political clout but also access to resources that directly benefit their communal interests. As such, the incentive to preserve that influence may outweigh the urgency to expedite the dissolution process.

It’s still too early to say with certainty whether new elections will be held—and if so, when. The crisis may ultimately result in elections being moved up by only six to nine months from their originally scheduled date.

Still, the political machinery is in motion. Given the entrenched positions and the ultra-Orthodox parties’ inability to accept any draft legislation that meets even the minimum expectations of the public— or the standards set by Yuli Edelstein’s committee, it is increasingly difficult to see a path for the ultra-Orthodox to back down now.

In short, the coalition is facing its most serious rupture to date. The gap between what the ultra-Orthodox leadership’s demands and what the political system—and broader Israeli society—are prepared to accept now appears irreconcilable. Barring an unlikely compromise, Israel seems likely headed toward yet another round of national elections— an outcome that most of us have long anticipated.

NETANYAHU CITED DRAFT EXEMPTION LAW IN FIRING TOP OFFICIALS

Tonight, Channel 13 aired recordings of Prime Minister Netanyahu speaking with a top ultra-Orthodox rabbi, in which Netanyahu stated he removed Defense Minister Yoav Galant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi in order to advance legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox Israelis from mandatory military service.

IRAN TALKS

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared today that the latest U.S. proposal for a nuclear agreement runs counter to Iran’s national interests. But what does that actually mean? Has Iran formally rejected the offer, or is this just another strategic maneuver aimed at extracting more favorable terms?

At this stage, it seems likely to be the latter—a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive refusal. The trajectory of these talks remains highly uncertain, and it’s equally unclear how far President Trump is prepared to go to avoid a military confrontation. However, based on his past behavior, I suspect President Trump is willing to offer significant concessions—and Iranian officials are aware of that.