DAY 486 OF CAPTIVITY • 16 OF THE CEASEFIRE: Speculation Surrounding Trump Netanyahu Meeting Abounds, Homicide Rates Skyrocket Among Arab Israelis, The Reason Why Food in Israel is So Expensive

Tel Aviv Diary, February 3, 2025

Recent news in Israel has been dominated by discussions about tomorrow’s meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. The array of different opinions regarding the likely outcomes of this encounter is remarkable.

Some reports suggest that Netanyahu will urge Trump that the best course of action is to continue with the current agreement without proceeding to the already agreed-upon second stage. Conversely, others contend Netanyahu will argue against initiating the second stage altogether. Meanwhile, some believe Netanyahu recognizes that he has no choice—understanding that Trump is adamant about advancing to the second stage, and thus, Netanyahu will have to agree, but aim to negotiate the most favorable terms possible.

It is evident that President Trump’s primary objective is to secure a major deal with Saudi Arabia, and any obstacle to this goal will be problematic for the President. The general perception is that, unlike with a Democratic administration, Prime Minister Netanyahu lacks any substantial leverage against whatever Trump wants. He cannot seek support from Congress or even AIPAC at this juncture.

The majority of Israelis are against any delay in the second stage, with over 70% in favor and only 20% opposed. Following the powerful images broadcast last Thursday and Sunday, there is a widespread desire among Israelis for the process to continue. The recent sight of hostages returning to the embrace of family and friends — after 15 months of harsh captivity— has solidified public sentiment, making it difficult to envision that many Israelis would support leaving any hostages behind.

Netanyahu has officially extended his trip until Saturday night, a move that is unsurprising, as he often manages to prolong his visits. Netanyahu’s stated reason for remaining in the U.S. is the high demand from individuals seeking meetings with him. However, as of now, Netanyahu’s schedule only includes one meeting with the new U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, on Wednesday, followed by a meeting with Congress on Thursday.

It is somewhat surprising that Netanyahu plans to remain abroad until Saturday, especially since additional hostages are scheduled to be released that day. It is difficult to comprehend how Netanyahu has chosen to be so far away at such a critical time, when complications could potentially arise.

Furthermore, Netanyahu is considering changing the members of the hostage/ceasefire negotiating team. This plan would include removing the heads of the Mossad and the Shabak (General Security Services) from the negotiations, and appointing Ron Dermer, whose expertise lies in Washington, rather than dealings with Hamas, as head of the team.

Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with Trump at 11 PM Israel time, followed by a tentative press conference at 12:15 AM. It remains uncertain whether there will be an update on their meeting tomorrow night or if the information will be released on Wednesday morning.

Today, Finance Minister Smotrich declared that withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor would be a red line for his continued participation in the government. However, Smotrich said he would not strictly monitor the speed at which Israel resumes fighting after the 42nd day of the current ceasefire. The problem with that statement is that Israel is supposed to begin withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor on the 42nd day. It is unclear what Smotrich will do, but Netanyahu faces a second significant challenge—drafting the ultra-Orthodox—for which there appears to be no immediate resolution.

Of the initial 3,000 draft notices issued, only 473 individuals reported for testing, and merely a handful have successfully been drafted. A thousand of those who received draft notices are now officially AWOL (absent without leave) and are restricted from leaving the country, obtaining a driver's license, and could potentially face arrest. Another 1,000 are in an intermediate status, where they have one final opportunity to report before they too are classified as AWOL.

Discussions are ongoing in the Knesset regarding a bill that could address this issue, but thus far, no significant progress has been made. Without such legislation, the ultra-Orthodox parties assert that they will not approve a budget, a stance that would automatically lead to the government's collapse.

DAUGHTER OF RELEASED HOSTAGE KEITH SIEGEL ADDRESSES THE PRESS

Tonight, Shir Siegel, daughter of Keith Siegel, spoke to the press and stated:

My father asked what happened in Kfar Aza. We told him that 64 of his friends from Kfar Aza were murdered. My father was held in inhumane conditions. He was starved and did not see daylight.

I apologize to all the families who lost their most precious loved ones so that the hostages could come home. I’m sorry that bereavement knocked on your door so that we could receive life. I’m sorry, and I thank you from the depths of my heart.

HOMOCIDE AMONG ARAB-ISRAELIS

The wave of murders in the Arab-Israeli sector has reached unprecedented and alarming levels. Six Arab-Israelis were killed today alone, adding to a total of nine in the past 48 hours. Arrests have yet to be made, perpetuating the troubling trend of unresolved murders in these communities. In a particularly shocking incident tonight, a pediatrician was killed in front of his patients. These killings have occurred across the country, and the current government has struggled to implement effective measures to curb this crisis.

Tonight, President Herzog stated:

The murder this evening of Dr. Abdallah Qassem Awad, a physician at a health clinic, is shocking and must serve as a glaring red warning light regarding the severity of crime and lawlessness plaguing Arab society.

WEST BANK

Today, the IDF expanded its operations to Tulkarem, where it reported killing three terrorists and arresting an additional 50.

LEBANON

The IDF continues its operations in Lebanon, where forces from the 769th Brigade recently discovered and destroyed multiple Hezbollah weapons caches. These contained:

• Mortar shells

• Missiles

• Rockets

• Explosive devices

• Firearms

• Additional military equipment

In a separate engagement, IDF forces engaged and neutralized several Hezbollah operatives, while also detaining or dispersing other individuals who were deemed threats to IDF personnel. So far, the IDF has successfully continued to operate without destroying the ceasefire.

HIGH COST OF LIVING

Israeli officials have been investigating the factors behind escalating prices and the high cost of living, particularly in the food sector. According to 2024 data from the