DAY 485 OF CAPTIVITY • DAY 15 OF THE CEASEFIRE: Strategic Analysis—Assessing Where We Stand as Netanyahu Heads to Washington, IDF Operation Expands in Jenin Area
Following an emotional Shabbat, it is worthwhile to take a moment to reflect and digest the lessons learned. One critical insight, which perhaps we should have realized long ago: is that Hamas has been the sole controlling force in Gaza continually since its rise to power—even before the onset of this war. It has been in Hamas’s interest to portray various other groups as independent operators. However, intelligence gathered during the war reveals this to be a deception—an attempt to obscure the true situation in Gaza. The strategy was to prevent a full understanding of their operations, with Hamas consistently using other groups as mere facades to maintain their dominance.
What we witnessed on Thursday, when Islamic Jihad released the first hostages, epitomized controlled chaos. After we protested and the Qataris intervened, Hamas ensured that Saturday’s release proceeded smoothly without any turmoil, reaffirming their control. This further underscores the emptiness of Netanyahu’s "total victory" slogan. Such an outcome was never a realistic possibility.
The moment Hamas successfully kidnapped our citizens and soldiers, achieving “total victory” was no longer an option. Our goal immediately shifted to preventing total defeat—which we managed to accomplish, but largely because Nasrallah, the Houthis, and Iran decided to attack us. Years of preparation and technological superiority enabled us to secure a decisive military advantage—a feat nearly impossible to attain against what is fundamentally a guerrilla force with widespread local backing.
One significant success, which should not be understated, is the IDF’s demonstrated ability to maneuver freely throughout Gaza while sustaining relatively few casualties. The concern that a full-scale war in Gaza would lead to an unbearable number of casualties, thankfully proved unfounded. Of course, this in no way minimizes the profound grief experienced by individual families who suffered losses. Nevertheless, the overall number of casualties was kept low, primarily due to the advanced technology developed by our military industries. This achievement will serve as a deterrent in the future.
Another reality that is increasingly clear is that our hopes for the people of Gaza to turn against Hamas following significant destruction were misplaced. Over the years under Hamas's rule, despite enduring considerable hardship, the population's support for Hamas has fluctuated without giving rise to any substantial opposition. This remains the case today.
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The people of Gaza see the devastation before their eyes, yet a mix of religious beliefs, education, and life experiences still leads many to believe that attacking Israelis is a sacred duty. This sentiment was starkly evident in an intercepted phone call between a young terrorist and his parents, in which he boasted about murdering Jews and his parents expressed their pride. We must come to terms with the reality that they hate us. While our actions over the past 15 months might deter some attacks, they have simultaneously intensified this hatred.
We must also acknowledge that our humanitarian efforts, such as providing medical treatment to Gazans in our hospitals—prior to October 7th—while morally right, do not necessarily earn us any goodwill. For instance, one of the hostages was shocked to discover that one of her most cruel captors had previously received life-saving medical care in Israel. Regrettably, it is a common aspect of human nature to harbor resentment towards those who help you most. This phenomenon is not unique to this situation; there are numerous instances where the recipient of a loan grows to resent the benefactor, not the other way around. Thus, our provision of advanced medical care to Gazans often leads to resentment rather than gratitude.
Where does this leave us? Certainly, not in a good place, and I cannot say I have any real solutions. I do not believe that turning into a militaristic state like Sparta is necessary—we've successfully avoided that path for over 70 years. Perhaps our next step could be to elevate our technological capabilities to enhance our defense strategies in new, innovative ways.
While it's too late to turn back the clock on certain decisions, it is regrettable that we allowed such extensive expansion of settlements across the West Bank. The issue isn't necessarily that the settlements obstruct peace, but rather that they pose significant security challenges. We find ourselves defending not just the settlements but also a vast network of roads, as nearly all settlers commute to work elsewhere. There are many challenges ahead, and I wish I had better answers.
Prime Minister Netanyahu departed for Washington, D.C. Speaking at Ben Gurion Airport before boarding Kanaf Tzion, (the official transport aircraft of the State of Israel), Netanyahu stated:
I’m heading to an extremely important meeting with President Trump. The fact that this is his first meeting with a foreign leader speaks volumes—it underscores the strength of our alliance.
This partnership led to the Abraham Accords under President Trump’s leadership. We will discuss the critical challenges ahead: defeating Hamas, bringing all our hostages home, and confronting the Iranian axis.
Decisions made during this war have already reshaped the Middle East beyond recognition. Through close cooperation with President Trump, we can transform it even further—bolstering Israel’s security, expanding the circle of peace, and ushering in an era of unprecedented prosperity and strength-driven peace.
Netanyahu will be the first foreign leader to meet with President Trump following his return to the White House, and as expected, the visit is garnering significant media attention here. However, what seems to be missing, is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the current dynamics in Washington. Regardless of one's personal views on Trump, it is undeniable that his actions are causing considerable upheaval in his quest to achieve his goals.
His policies, ranging from imposing high tariffs on neighboring countries, halting various payments, to granting Elon Musk access to government payment systems and personal records, have plunged Washington into turmoil. Consequently, issues here in Israel may receive less attention than usual.
Various groups here have different expectations for the visit. The families of the hostages—along with most Israelis, are hopeful that Trump will pressure Netanyahu to proceed with the second phase of the hostage agreement. Others anticipate that Trump will further advocate for his proposal to relocate Gazans to Egypt and Jordan. Additionally, some hope Netanyahu will persuade Trump to take action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. A clearer understanding of the outcomes from the White House meeting should emerge on Tuesday morning, as a press conference is scheduled immediately afterward. However, we will need to wait for the actual outcomes.
WEST BANK
Meanwhile, the IDF is intensifying its operations in the northern West Bank. Overnight, the Air Force reported that it had eliminated a terrorist cell poised to launch an imminent attack. Below is the statement issued by the Army Spokesperson regarding their latest operations in the West Bank:
As part of the counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria, the IDF and Shin Bet carried out three airstrikes within a few hours last night (Saturday), using Air Force aircraft to target terrorist cells in the Jenin and Qabatiya areas of the Menashe Brigade.
In Qabatiya, an Air Force aircraft directed by the Shin Bet struck and eliminated a terrorist cell that was en route to carry out an imminent attack. Following the strike, secondary explosions were observed from explosive devices that had been in the terrorists’ vehicle.
Among those killed in the strike were terrorist Saleh Zakarneh and Abd al-Hadi Kamil, a former prisoner from Qabatiya who had been jailed for planning terror attacks and was released as part of the November 2023 agreement.
In Jenin, Air Force aircraft targeted and eliminated two armed terrorist cells within a few hours.
This morning, the IDF announced an expansion of its operations in Jenin to encompass the nearby village of Tamun:
Security forces have been operating for 12 days in an anti-terror operation in the Judea and Samaria Division.
Last night (Sunday), the combat team of the BISLACH Brigade began operations in the village of Tamun, in the Menashe Brigade sector. This follows last week’s airstrike in which ten terrorists were eliminated.
So far, the forces have located weapons, including an M-16 rifle and magazines.
Security forces continue their counter-terrorism operation in northern Samaria while ensuring the security of Israel’s civilians.
In the afternoon, the Army demolished 23 buildings within the Jenin refugee camp, alleging that these structures were used for manufacturing explosives. The IDF reported that during operations in the Jenin area, they have eliminated 50 terrorists and detained an additional 100
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GAZA
Today in Gaza, the Air Force targeted a car in Northern Gaza City that had bypassed the checkpoint. This action reflects Israel's stringent policy, similar to its approach in Lebanon, of zero tolerance for any violations of agreements.
Interesting statistics have been released regarding the limb amputations in Gaza:
Women make up 26% of the population but account for only 12% of amputation cases.
Children make up 48% of the population but account for only 18% of amputation cases.
Adult men make up 26% of the population but account for 70% of amputation cases.
… Draw your own conclusions.
Statement from the family of former hostage Yarden Bibas:
To the incredible people of Israel,
Thank you for sharing in our emotions, for your care, and for surrounding Yarden
with your love from afar.
Your support is deeply felt and truly appreciated.
Yarden is here, and finally, he can breathe again.
He has lost a significant amount of weight, but he is feeling well, and his
physical condition is stable. He is strong and remarkable.
As Yarden begins his process of recovery and rehabilitation, we remain committed to fighting for Shiri, Ariel, and Kfir, and for the 76 remaining hostages
who must not be left behind.
Tomorrow evening, we will hold a press statement. Until then, we kindly ask for our privacy, allowing us the time and quiet we need.
ECONOMY
Over the recent months, supermarket chains have continually increased prices, operating under the assumption that demand for their products is inelastic. However, Israeli consumers may have reached their breaking point. There have been sporadic calls for boycotts of various supermarkets and various brands, which appear to be making an impact.
This past weekend, senior executives from various supermarket chains reported a 3%–4% decrease in consumption in January compared to the same period last year. The decline is even more pronounced when taking into account the annual population growth of 1.9% and the price increases compared to January of the previous year.
The food price index rose by 0.2% in December compared to November, culminating in an annual increase of 4.3% for 2024. This is compared to a 3.2% increase in the general Consumer Price Index. In 2023, the food price index had increased by 4.2%.
Some supermarket chains have reported that their revenues have not declined compared to January last year. However, the increase in revenue was less than the rate of price hikes over the past year—indicating a real decrease in consumption. Israelis purchased fewer products than in January last year, but due to higher prices, they ended up spending the same amount or even more at checkout.
The slowdown in consumption is alarming for supermarket chains, which had grown accustomed to high sales volumes, driven by fewer international flights and a somber national mood due to the war. Those who, until recently, kept a loose grip on pricing, capitalizing on the war to impose sharp price increases and generate substantial profits at the consumers’ expense, now find themselves needing to reassess their strategies and approach price increases with more caution.
Israeli consumers may have finally woken up and Israeli stores may finally need to respond accordingly.
BUSINESS
Backline
Backline, an Israeli startup founded in August 2024, has secured a $9 million seed-funding round led by StageOne Ventures, with participation from Evolution Equity Partners and Gradient. Backline was established by industry veterans Maor Goldberg, Eran Leib, and Aviad Chen, who previously founded and sold successful startups Whitebox Security and Apolicy to SailPoint and Sysdig respectively
.
The company has developed an AI-powered platform that automates the resolution of common cybersecurity issues across organizations. Their system uses AI agents to handle security problems identified by various detection tools, automatically implementing solutions without human intervention. The platform integrates with existing organizational tools like Jira and Slack, and uniquely focuses on not just identifying issues but actively implementing and verifying fixes that don't interfere with existing systems.
Seraphic Security
Seraphic Security, a company specializing in browser security, has raised $29 million in a Series-A funding round led by GreatPoint Ventures and the CrowdStrike investment fund, along with the company’s existing investors. Avichai Cohen and Ilan Yeshua, the former CEO of Walla founded the company. Established in 2020, Seraphic Security currently employs over 50 people
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The browser security market in which the company operates includes several Israeli competitors, such as Talon, which was acquired by Palo Alto Networks, and Island. Unlike these companies, Seraphic Security has developed a software component that integrates directly into the browser to prevent cyberattacks. The company’s solution overcomes challenges such as slow and cumbersome security processes with high costs, which typically require lengthy installations and extensive resource usage for maintenance.
Our next destination, Kibbutz Yakum, located off the main road is one of the wealthiest Kibbutzim in Israel.
The kibbutz was originally established, in 1938, as “Kibbutz Eretz Israel D” near Hadera. Its founding members, part of Hashomer Hatzair, waited approximately eight years before they were allocated land for settlement near "Wadi Falik." During this waiting period, additional members from Germany, Bulgaria, and Poland joined the group. Some members were assigned to work in more established Jewish settlements, such as Beit Gan in the Galilee.
On the night of March 10–11, 1947, prior to the establishment of the state, the kibbutz members relocated to an area purchased from the lands of Khirbet al-Zababdeh, which was then full of swamps and presented numerous survival challenges. The settlers initially gathered in Shefayim and from there moved to to their new location. Upon arrival, they constructed a water tower, a residential barrack, and a perimeter fence to establish their settlement.
At the time of settlement, the kibbutz had 120 members and 30 children. The name “Yakum” (meaning "He [i.e., the People] shall rise") was assigned by the Central Naming Committee. Initially, the kibbutz members opposed the name and appealed to the committee, proposing alternative names such as ”Plagim," (tributaries), “Eshlim,” (tamarisk trees), “Gva’im,” (small hills), and “Sha’ar-Yam” (Gate of the Sea). Since settling on the land, the swamps were drained, the barren land was cultivated, and the kibbutz flourished.
Until 1964, the kibbutz primarily relied on agriculture for its livelihood. That year, the community purchased a plastic factory and expanded into industrial ventures. In 2003, Kibbutz Yakum underwent a privatization process as part of the broader privatization trends among kibbutzim in Israel
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In the 21st century, Yakum has experienced consistent demographic growth due to its diverse employment opportunities, proximity to central cities, and the ability for kibbutz members to build homes within the kibbutz.
In addition to agriculture, which includes field crops and orchards, kibbutz members earn income from industry and services. The kibbutz owned Plastiv, the largest plastic container manufacturing plant in Israel, which contributed significantly to its revenue. In 2008, the kibbutz sold half of its stake in the factory to a strategic partner in the plastics industry. A few years later, the factory was sold to the Shalem Packaging Solutions Group.
The kibbutz also owns industrial, commercial, and office buildings, which it manages. Part of its income comes from operating a shopping center, gas station at the kibbutz entrance, and the Green Park high-tech industrial park, home to major companies such as Paz, Dor Alon, Samsung, HOT, and Intel.
