DAY 480 IN CAPTIVITY • DAY 10 OF THE CEASEFIRE: Looming Coalition Crises, Trump Doubles Down on Relocation, Opportunities for Israel in the Time of Trump
Tel Aviv Diary, January 28, 2025
NETANYAHU HEADED TO D.C.
Tonight, it was announced that Prime Minister Netanyahu has been invited to meet with President Trump at the White House next Tuesday. Netanyahu is the first foreign leader to be invited to the White House during Trump’s second term as President.
LEBANON
In Lebanon, intermittent clashes continued between the IDF and villagers attempting to return to southern Lebanon. This evening, Israel targeted and destroyed a truck north of the Litani River, believing it carried weapons—in violation of the ceasefire agreement. The occurrence of multiple secondary explosions following the strike confirmed that the truck was indeed transporting explosives. 24 Lebanese were wounded in the attacks.
GAZA
In Gaza, thousands more residents continued moving northward, forming a lengthy convoy of cars and trucks. This evening, it was reported that an Israeli soldier accidentally shot and killed civilian employee of the Defense Department, Yaakov “Kobi” Avitan (39), in the Netzarim corridor, having mistakenly identified him as a Hamas member.
THE LOOMING COALITION CRISES
March is rapidly approaching, bringing with it the deadline to pass the State’s budget. If the budget is not approved, the government will automatically fall. One of the major roadblocks to passing the budget is the threat from the ultra-Orthodox parties—who declared they will not support the proposed budget unless legislation is enacted to exempt the ultra-Orthodox from conscription effectively.
Today, the Knesset Foreign Relations and Defense Committee held a hearing where IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi stated that the Army needs tens of thousands more troops. Halevi emphasized the preference to secure the support of the ultra-Orthodox leadership, but also asserted that sanctions must be imposed on those who refuse to be drafted, regardless of their stance. The military has consistently maintained this position over the past few months.
This morning, MK Yossi Taib from Shas, the head of the Knesset Education Committee, expressed his lack of concern regarding military conscription. Even though his own son received a draft notice, Taib remains unfazed— remarking that his son could continue his Talmud studies in prison if necessary. Taib’s comments provoked a stir.
It is unclear where this crisis is headed. Netanyahu seems confident in his ability to resolve the issues, but I have my doubts. This skepticism stems especially from the complexity involved in managing the ultra-Orthodox draft issue. Additionally, there are challenges with Smotrich's threats to topple the government if combat in Gaza does not resume after the current ceasefire. Tonight, Aryeh Deri, the head of the Shas Party, stated that Netanyahu has two months to resolve the draft issue; otherwise, we’re going to have elections.
TRUMP DOUBLES DOWN ON RELOCATION “PLAN”
President Trump doubled down on the idea of getting some of the Palestinians to relocate from Gaza to Egypt or Jordan. When asked about this matter last night on Air Force One, Trump expressed his desire for Gazans “to live in an area where they can live without disruption and revolution and violence so much. When you look at the Gaza Strip, it’s been hell for so many years.”
Trump continued:
There have been various civilizations on that strip. It didn’t start here. It started thousands of years before, and there’s always been violence associated with it. You could get people living in areas that are a lot safer and maybe a lot better and maybe a lot more comfortable.
Moreover, Trump confidently stated his belief that Egypt and Jordan would indeed accept the Palestinians. Today, I attended a conference titled “Opportunities for Israel in the Time of Trump”, sponsored by the liberal, democratic NGO “Darkeinu” and “Commanders for a Secure Israel”. One of the panelists, Amira Oron, former ambassador to both Egypt and Turkey, addressed Trump’s relocation proposal. She responded that there was absolutely no chance of it being realized. However more critically, she warned that such a proposal was endangering our peace with Egypt.
The Egyptians categorically reject the idea of accepting Palestinians under any circumstances. They believe this proposal came from Israeli right-wing figures who are influencing Trump. According to Oron, the Egyptians regard Israeli involvement in this matter as a hostile act, that could undermine Egypt’s security, particularly as Trump indirectly pressures Egypt to comply. Oron also added that while she is not an expert on Jordan, she believes the situation there is similarly tense.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISRAEL DURING THE NEW TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
The Darkeinu/Commanders for a Secure Israel conference was interesting and began with remarks from General (Res.) Matan Vilnai, the chairman of Officers for the Security of Israel. Vilnai reflected on the past 15 months, emphasizing that his organization had anticipated the potential for conflict and had issued warnings. While they did not predict the exact scenario that unfolded, they had foreseen that our enemies were preparing to attack.
Vilnai went on to criticize the government for ignoring Biden’s “day after” plan, stating that as a result, we now have no plan and are witnessing the consequences. He condemned the government for normalizing the idea that more than a hundred of our citizens could remain hostages while we do nothing.
The former General insisted that there will be a National Commission of Inquiry (Va’ada Mamlachteet)—whether Netanyahu wants it or not. However, Vilnai warned about Messianism, stating that this is what motivates Ben Gvir and Smotrich. He cautioned that Messianism has always brought disaster to the Jewish people, even citing false messiah Shabbtai Tzvi as a historical example.
The next speaker, David Simcha, the head of Darkenu, highlighted that the Trump era presents unique opportunities. According to Simcha, Trump is a friend of Israel, who has made significant contributions to the country. However, he emphasized that today's discussion should focus on future opportunities.
The next speaker was Eyal Hulata, who served as head of the National Security Council prior to the October 7 war. Currently based in Washington, Hulata noted that one of the positive aspects of the Trump administration is that it makes fewer mistakes in identifying who is “good” and who is “ba. Hulata also said that Trump is eager to see this war end. Nevertheless, he criticized the Israeli government for its refusal to discuss the “day after” the war, deeming it a mistake. However, Hulata believes that Netanyahu has, in fact, been contemplating the “day after”. Hulata also admitted that in the nine months leading up to the war, there were indicators he observed but did not fully appreciate their significance at the time.
Next up was Yair Lapid. Before delivering his main speech, Lapid warned that Defense Minister Katz was currently interviewing candidates for the new IDF Chief of Staff, trying to find someone likely to agree to a plan that would allow the ultra-Orthodox to avoid military conscription.
Opposition leader Lapid then argued that if Israel does not take diplomatic action, it will lose the war. He outlined a five-step plan, with Saudi Arabia at the center, calling for:
1. A conference in Riyadh, including all moderate Arab states, Israel, the U.S.,
and the Palestinian Authority.
2. A plan to rebuild Gaza.
3. A joint effort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
4. Efforts to create a stable, Western-aligned government in Lebanon.
5. Normalization between Israel and the Arab/Muslim world, with all sides working
toward a gradual separation from the Palestinians.
Lapid acknowledged that the establishment of a Palestinian state is not imminent, but insisted that Israel must at least engage in discussions about long-term strategies and send some bureaucrats to Gaza. He contended that the government's inaction is solely due to fear of backlash from late-night posts in right-wing groups on WhatsApp.
The next speaker was Ofer Shelah, a researcher at INSS and a former head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. In my opinion, Shelah is one of Israel’s most insightful defense thinkers. Shelah began by discussing the risks of Trump’s return. He cautioned that Trump's belief in America's ability to act unilaterally on the global stage presents a challenge for Israel. Shelah also voiced concerns about Trump's lack of attention to detail, noting that for Israel, the devil is truly in the details
.
Shelah argued that Trump approaches every situation as if it was a real estate deal, which could be beneficial—sometimes, the sheer confidence that a deal is possible can help bring it to fruition. However, Shelah’s primary concern is that Israel lacks a comprehensive security strategy. If Trump feels he cannot accomplish anything with Israel, he may simply disengage, leaving Israel to handle the situation on its own.
Former Justice Minister Tzipi Livni took the stage next. Livni emphasized the importance of national unity, but emphasized that Israel must first define what unity means
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Livni asserted that Israel is at a crossroads, facing two distinct paths. Meaning, Israel must choose between becoming either: 1) Jewish and democratic state, where Jews remain the majority of the population, or 2) religious theocracy, ruling over millions of Palestinians. She compared this decision to navigating with Waze, saying, “We need to know which direction we are heading as a nation.”
Speaking about the events of October 7, Livni said that while military failures played a central role, the deeper cause was years of empowering extremists while weakening pragmatic elements in Palestinian society. She warned that the most significant omission in this war is the absence of a political/diplomatic strategy. Livni stated that she had advocated for such a plan during the second week of the war, yet, to this day, it appears none has been implemented.
Livni expressed her devastation over the way families of hostages are being addressed, with statements such as:
“We are told that if we negotiate for the hostages, more people will die and get raped.”
“We are told that if we do not continue the war, the deaths of our fallen soldiers will have been in vain.”
She dismissed these assertions outright. “There is nothing more we can achieve with this war,” Livni declared. The only reason the war continues, Livni argued, is to enable the future building of Jewish settlements in Gaza. She criticized the rationale of compelling the Army to fight a war solely to expand settlements as irrational. Livni also stated that settlements do not improve Israel's security, and that constructing them, even further into areas hostile to their presence is absurd. When settlers argue that the Army will protect the settlements, Livni scoffed, saying, “That is not a defense policy, and it will not make Israel safer.”
During the subsequent panel discussion, several intriguing points were raised:
Uzi Arad, another former head of the National Security Council, previewed the upcoming Netanyahu-Trump meeting. Arad stated that Netanyahu’s plans for Gaza do not align with Trump’s vision. He also predicted that the main focus of the meeting will be Iran—Netanyahu wants a U.S. green light to attack Iran, while Trump prefers to negotiate a deal.
On another subject, Arad questioned the findings of the Nagel Commission, which was tasked with formulating the Ministry of Defense budget. He pointed out that in addition to drafting a budget, the commission also fundamentally altered the IDF’s strategic doctrine—shifting it from a defensive to an offensive approach. While not inherently against this shift, Arad criticized the haste with which the decision was made. He contended that such a significant strategic change demanded a more extensive and detailed deliberation before implementation.
BUSINESS
TopGum Industries
Headquartered in Tel Aviv, TopGum Industries has long been recognized as a pioneer in the world of gummy supplements. Yet, its true heartbeat lies further south, in the embattled city of Sderot, where its manufacturing plant churns out innovative supplements designed to bring health and enjoyment together. It was from this base in Israel that TopGum set its sights across the Atlantic, leading to the recent acquisition of Island Abbey Nutritionals—a respected name in supplement gummies and lozenges based in the scenic Prince Edward Island, Canada. This acquisition wasn’t just a business transaction; it was a bold step in a journey that began with a simple goal: to transform how people perceive and consume dietary supplements.
For TopGum, acquiring Island Abbey is about more than just expansion; it’s about crafting a future where taking vitamins and supplements is an experience people look forward to. With Island Abbey’s cutting-edge 65,000 square foot facility—brimming with advanced manufacturing technologies like starchless depositing and center-fill capabilities—TopGum is ready to reshape the “Enjoyables” segment of the supplement market. The acquisition is expected to push the company’s revenue beyond the $100 million mark, opening doors to collaborations with top-tier brands worldwide.
Island Abbey’s story, which began in 2004 under the guidance of CEO Dean Williams, is one of innovation and meticulous craftsmanship. Its growth has been fueled by relentless research and development, creating products that adhere to the highest standards, including FDA, NSF, GMP, SQF, and Health Canada certifications.
This partnership between TopGum and Island Abbey marks a convergence of cultures and expertise. While Tel Aviv’s vibrant energy and Sderot’s enduring spirit power TopGum’s operations, the tranquil landscapes of Prince Edward Island now contribute to its global vision. Together, they are set to redefine what it means to take your daily vitamins—transforming a mundane task into a moment of enjoyment.
Token Security
Token Security, an Israeli cybersecurity startup, has raised $20 million in Series-A funding, following their $7 million seed round just eight months ago. The round was led by Notable Capital, with participation from TLV Partners and executives from major cybersecurity companies.
The company focuses on securing non-human identities in organizations, which outnumber human identities by 45 times. Their platform uses cryptographic processes to verify identities, manage permissions, and allocate resources across infrastructure environments like Snowflake, Kubernetes, and Terraform. It also connects relevant personnel to DevOps teams for quick security issue resolution.
Founded in 2023 by Unit 8200 veterans Itamar Appleblatt (CEO) and Ido Shlomo (CTO), Token Security differentiates itself by mapping and identifying organizational owners of every identity. The company has already secured notable clients like HPE and Hibob, demonstrating its value by addressing critical security issues such as discovering unauthorized access through outdated Service Accounts and identifying instances of excessive admin privileges across development environments.
Notable Capital's Managing Partner, Oren Younger, emphasized that Token's solution addresses a critical market need, particularly as organizations face increasing challenges from AI, cloud adoption, and automated processes accessing sensitive digital assets. The company operates in a competitive space, with over 10 Israeli startups developing similar solutions.
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JOURNEY ACROSS ISRAEL
Our next destination heading north is Moshav Rishpon. Situated on east side of highway, this community was established in 1936, and is located within Israel’s Central District. Rishpon operates under the jurisdiction of the Hof HaSharon Regional Council. As of 2022, Rishpon was home to approximately 1,471 residents.
In its early years, the settlers of Rishpon, mainly immigrants from Poland and Russia, encountered considerable challenges. They lived in tents without electricity and faced threats from neighboring areas.
Over time, Rishpon transitioned from its agricultural roots to become an exclusive suburban area. Its proximity to affluent communities like Herzliya and Kfar Shmaryahu attracted retailers and designers seeking a serene environment close to urban centers. Today, Rishpon is known for its designer clothing stores, furniture galleries, and houseware shops, offering a tranquil alternative to the bustle of Tel Aviv.
Despite its transformation, Rishpon maintains elements of its agricultural heritage, with some active farms still operating in the area. The community offers various amenities, including educational institutions, recreational facilities, and cultural events, contributing to a high quality of life for its residents.
This video shows how little things change over so many years