DAY 472 in Captivity, Day 2 of Ceasefire: What’s Next For Hostage Releases, Trump’s Second Term and Israel, Soldier Killed in the West Bank

Tel Aviv Diary, January 20, 2025

It’s the day after the ceasefire began, and a palpable sense of relief permeates the streets of Tel Aviv. The images shared last night were so powerful and evocative that people are still smiling today. It’s difficult to capture the feeling in words. There’s a clear sense that this chapter of our 100-year war has come to an end. On a personal note, I can say that I slept better last night than I have in months. My subconscious was finally at ease, no longer braced to be roused by midnight sirens.

Certainly, the notion that this war is now over is somewhat of an illusion. Yesterday was a remarkable day—as three seemingly healthy women returned home from captivity. It will take days, perhaps weeks, before we hear their stories. Meanwhile, we look forward to Saturday, which promises to be dramatic in two very different ways. Firstly, the release of four more hostages—three female soldiers and an additional civilian woman—are scheduled to be released. It remains uncertain whether the condition of the four women scheduled for the second release will match the same state as the three women freed yesterday.

Additionally, under the terms of the agreement, Hamas is obligated to provide on list on Saturday detailing the status of the 32 remaining hostages—whether deceased or alive—as part of the first stage release. Although initial estimates suggested two-thirds of the remaining hostages were alive, these figures were only speculative. On Sunday, many families will receive the news they have been praying for, while others will confront the heartbreaking reality they feared. We will stand in solidarity with those rejoicing over their loved one’s return and mourn with those who receive devastating news. In the weeks ahead, we will experience an emotional roller coaster, but for the moment, this will be without the backdrop of active conflict in Gaza or Lebanon.

The pressing question remains: What happens next? Will Netanyahu move forward with the second part of the agreement, aimed at securing the release of the remaining hostages and also ending the war? Today, Finance Minister Smotrich declared that he would seek to topple the government if Israel does not resume military action following the first stage of the agreement. Yet, two significant factors must be considered. Firstly, there is overwhelming support among the Israeli public for both ending the war and ensuring the return of the hostages.

Secondly, the incoming Trump administration has emphasized the need for a comprehensive agreement that guarantees the release of all hostages. This includes concessions made to Steve Witkoff, which have facilitated progress on the current agreement. Would Netanyahu risk opposing Trump, Israeli public sentiment, and global opinion by reigniting a war that has proven unwinnable for the past 15 months?

Meanwhile, the Houthis announced today that they would no longer disrupt shipping unrelated to Israel. While this may appease the international community, it remains unacceptable for Israel. We cannot allow a situation where Eilat remains cut off from global trade due to Houthi threats to become a permanent reality.

TRUMP 2.0 AND ISRAEL

Today, President Trump was inaugurated as President, once again. Many Israelis, including some who were not enthusiastic about his election, have acknowledged in recent days that his presidency has been a blessing for Israel. Without Trump, the hostage deal likely would not have materialized. There is near-universal belief in Israel that this is the case. While the Biden Administration’s dogged efforts in crafting and advancing the precise details of the agreement were crucial, it was Trump who carried the ball over the line and ultimately clinched the deal. The joyful reunions we witnessed yesterday would not have been possible without Trump’s involvement.

The Israeli right-wing, which had high expectations for the start of Trump's administration, believed he would support cutting off humanitarian aid to Gaza and endorse drastic measures to secure a “total victory.” However, they have been surprised to find that he is just as interested in achieving a ceasefire in Gaza as Biden had been. Moreover, Israel’s right-wing harbors deep concern regarding Trump’s talk of a broader deal with Saudi Arabia, as such an agreement, which, while not likely to immediately establish a Palestinian state, could include steps to bolster the Palestinian Authority. Many on the far right view the Palestinian Authority as a greater threat than Hamas. Some even hoped that a crisis elsewhere might shift Trump's attention away from Israel. In his inaugural address earlier today, President Trump declared, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but by the war we end.”

I don’t know what the future holds, but one thing is certain: with Trump, anything is possible. Only time will reveal the full extent of his impact, but Trump has already made a significant contribution by aiding in the return of the hostages.

This isn't intended as a commentary on America, but as someone who regards himself as an American historian, I'll reiterate what I mentioned at the conclusion of my interview on British radio this morning. Although the discussion primarily focused on the hostages, it briefly shifted to the inauguration. I advised everyone to buckle up and enjoy the ride, predicting that it’s going to be a wild one.

WEST BANK

We had hoped that the ceasefire would spare us from waking up to breaking news alerts announcing that the loss of another soldier has been “hutar l’pirsum” (authorized for publication). Unfortunately, while there is a ceasefire with Gaza, the ongoing battle against terror in the West Bank continues. Today, Sergeant First Class (res.) Eviatar Ben Yehuda (31), from Nitzan, was killed by an IED in the Palestinian town of Tamun. Eviatar was driving a lightly armored vehicle. Four others, including the unit commander were injured. Hamas has vowed to escalate terror attacks in the West Bank, prompting the IDF to bolster its forces there

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