DAY 45 OF THE GAZA WAR: Heavy Fighting in the North, Hostage Deal May be Close,Tanks and Lasers the Future of the IDF
Tel Aviv Diary November 20, 2023
Sunday November 26th ZOOM Briefing 6 PM Israel Time 11 AM East Coast
TODAY IS INTERNATIONAL CHILDREN’S DAY
Today was one of the most violent days on our Northern border, with over 40 rockets fired at points along its length. Additionally, four drones were sent into Israel, targeting Israeli locations. A rocket with a large warhead, landed on an empty Israeli base, causing extensive damage, but no injuries. There seemed to be an excuse for yesterday's violence in the north; as it was a Shiite holiday. However, the reason behind Nasrallah's decision to escalate tensions at the border today remains unclear. It could be he is making use of the bad weather to attack when its harder for Israel to accurately retaliate. Nevertheless, Nasrallah did refrain from attacking beyond the border area. Currently, the situation in the north appears under control at the moment, but a mistake could quickly escalate into a larger confrontation.
The IDF has continued its operations in Zeitoun and Jabaliya, east of Gaza City. The initial two days were challenging, with Hamas offering surprising resistance. According to recent reports, Hamas resistance is waning, and IDF troops continue making progress. It's expected that at least another two days are required to conclude the battles in northern Gaza. One reason for the persistent Hamas resistance is the lack of escape routes for terrorists in the area
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In the area of Gaza captured today, soldiers discovered a workshop — inside a mosque —where Hamas was building rockets.
Today, the army announced the deaths of two more soldiers, in the fight for control of the Northern Gaza neighborhoods
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Rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel have been minimal today, but Hamas did manage to launch an unanticipated barrage on Tel Aviv. I was particularly surprised, as I found myself in a location where quickly locating safe shelter was difficult. However, the overall low number of rocket attacks has led the Home Front Command to authorize the reopening of nearly all schools, no longer worrying about the availability of secure rooms for students. Tel Aviv has now allocated funds to create secure rooms in all city schools for all students, but this will take time. Some parents have chosen to keep their children at home. The law mandating school attendance has been temporarily suspended.
It was revealed today that two weeks ago, two individuals from Gaza were arrested in the southern, predominantly Bedouin city of Rahat. One had participated in the heinous attack on October 7th; the other was involved in subsequent plundering. The pair were reportedly sheltered by a Rahat resident, who was also arrested.
In light of the overall decrease in rocket attacks, and with the general security situation seemingly under control, a significant number of army reservists have been discharged, slightly lessening the economic impact.
HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS
The status of the hostages has been a focal point in Israeli news, even more so in the last two days, with constant speculation about a deal for their release. The uncertainty of the welfare of the hostages must be utterly unimaginable for the parents and relatives. The current deal, nearing agreement, allegedly calls for the release of 50-70 Israeli women and children, in exchange for a five-day ceasefire, along with the release of twice the number of Palestinian women and juvenile prisoners. While negotiations with Hamas are ongoing, the outcome remains uncertain until the moment the exchange actually happens.
Tonight, the families of the hostages met with the war cabinet, a meeting they have been requesting for over a week.
BEN-GVIR PUTS POLITICS ABOVE PEOPLE
In the Knesset today, Minister for National Security Ben-Gvir insisted on holding a hearing for his bill to impose the death penalty on terrorists, despite agonizing pleas from the families of hostages to refrain from doing so at this fragile, painful time. During the Knesset hearing, the hostage families clashed with Knesset members from Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir’s party). In one shameful instance, MK Almog Cohen from Otzma Yehudit told a man whose wife and daughter were held by Hamas, screaming: “You have no mandate on pain.” The committee chair, Tzvika Fogel, disgracefully told a hostage’s family member (who had begged Fogel not to hold the meeting at this time) that this hostage relative was “working for Hamas, not Israel.”
LOOKOUTS: WHY THEIR REPORTS WERE IGNORED
There have been various reports from women serving as IDF lookouts along the border. Several of these young women soldiers claimed to have seen actions by Hamas, and repeatedly warned their commanders. Distressingly, these young women were ignored. Several have claimed that sexism is to blame for the soldiers’ warnings being summarily dismissed. However, I believe the reason the lookout soldiers were ignored is actually worse. I suspect the cause for the Israeli military’s abject failure was “conceptionism”— i.e., the army's inability to accept information that counters its prevailing wisdom. This is a lesson we should have learned from the Yom Kippur War, however, somehow this lesson was ignored again.
EXTREMIST VIOLENCE
Here is another important passage from Biden’s op-ed piece that I did not quote yesterday:
I have been emphatic with Israel's leaders that extremist violence against Palestinians in the West Bank must stop, and those committing the violence must be held accountable. The United States is prepared to take our own steps, including issuing visa bans against extremists attacking civilians in the West Bank.
Biden is not alone in this sentiment regarding extremist violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. Most Israeli military leaders have been concerned about violence perpetrated by Jewish extremists, even before the war. Regrettably, with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich holding key positions in the current coalition, it's unlikely that this government will address the issue.
YARON TO REMAIN BANK OF ISRAEL GOVERNOR
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Finance Minister Smotrich have jointly announced that the term of the Governor of the Bank of Israel, Prof. Amir Yaron, will be extended for a second five-year term. There had been some doubt about Netanyahu’s willingness to extend the Bank Governor’s term, since Prof. Yaron had criticized the judicial overhaul supported by Netanyahu and Smotrich. However, both Netanyahu and Smotrich realized that, with challenging economic times ahead, Israel needs the stability of someone already respected in world markets at the helm of the national bank.
TANKS AND LASERS
The government has reportedly canceled the sale of several Israeli tanks to a foreign buyer, following a decision to significantly increase the size of the Israeli tank corps. The success of Israel’s tanks and their survivability during this war have underscored their importance to the IDF. We can expect substantial expansion of the tank corps, in the revised force structure that will be established after the war.
There are reports that Israel’s laser defense system is being tested under real battle conditions during this war. If these tests are successful, the goal is to make the system operational by next year.