DAY 447 OF THE WAR: Two Soldiers Killed in Gaza, Israel Launches Large Air Attack on Houthis, Netanyahu Attacks the Media, Ultra-Orthodox Draft Conundrum
It is with great sadness that we learned today of the death of Reserve Captain Amit Levi, a 34-year-old from Kibbutz Shomria, who was killed by a sniper in central Gaza. Tonight it was announced that Major Hod Shriebman (27) from Tzofit was killed in Northern Gaza. Two additional soldiers were seriously wounded. The deaths of Levi and Shriebman add to the toll of lives needlessly cut short.
HOUTHIS
The main news this morning was that the Houthis had not launched any attacks against us overnight. While the quiet allowed us to stay in bed, I found myself repeatedly waking up, anticipating an attack that never came. However, I suspect that tonight will be different.
This afternoon, the IAF conducted a major strike on Houthi targets in Yemen. Here’s the statement issued by the IDF regarding its operation in Yemen:
In accordance with plans approved by the Chief of General Staff, the Minister of Defense, and the Prime Minister, Israeli Air Force fighter jets, guided by the Intelligence Directorate, recently struck terrorist targets belonging to the Houthi terror regime along Yemen’s western coastline and deep within Yemeni territory.
The Houthi terror regime has repeatedly attacked the State of Israel and its citizens by launching unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and surface-to-surface missiles toward Israeli territory.
Among the targets struck were infrastructure facilities used by the Houthi terror regime for military activities at Sanaa International Airport and at the Aziz and Ras Kantib power stations, which serve as key electricity infrastructure for the Houthi terror regime. Additionally, facilities at the ports of Hudaydah, Al-Salif, and Ras Kantib along Yemen’s western coastline were targeted.
These facilities were used, among other purposes, to transfer Iranian weaponry to the area and to facilitate the arrival of senior Iranian officials. The targets struck highlight the Houthi terror regime’s use of civilian infrastructure for military and terrorist purposes.
The Houthi terror regime serves as a central extension of the broader Iranian axis and is responsible for destabilizing the regional order and disrupting global maritime freedom. Operating as an independent terror entity, it relies on Iranian collaboration and funding to harm the State of Israel and its citizens.
The IDF will not hesitate to act forcefully and target anyone who poses a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel, regardless of the distance involved.
The latest strike against the Houthis marked a significant escalation from previous operations, involving a force of 100 aircraft. The operation targeted multiple strategic locations, including Sanaa airport, where aircrafts, the ATC tower, and runways were destroyed. The strikes also hit two power plants, port facilities, and oil storage tanks. Despite the increased intensity of this attack, the Houthis will not likely be deterred. Our best medium-term strategy lies in cutting them off from their supplier. While Defense Minister Katz has issued threats about targeting Houthi leadership, this conflict appears to be evolving into a prolonged war of attrition.
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Debate continues over whether Israel should take direct action against Iran. So far, the decision has been made to concentrate on the Houthis, primarily due to uncertainty about the extent of Iran's control over Houthi operations. While I can only speculate, it seems likely that before engaging in another confrontation with Iran, there would be a desire to replenish our stock of Arrow interceptor missiles. The previous exchange with Iran depleted a significant number of these interceptors, and the larger our available inventory in any exchange with Iran, the better.
Court Orders Release TO HOUSE ARREST of Anti-Netanyahu Protesters
Today, a judge ordered the release to house arrest of the four protesters who were arrested for firing a flare near Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Caesarea residence. The prosecution had requested the offenders be held without bail, arguing their actions constituted terrorism. However, the judge dismissed these claims, finding no evidence of terrorist intent and determining the defendants posed no danger to the public. It's worth noting that three of the defendants are in their late sixties, and one is a Brigadier General in the Reserves.
Netanyahu Attacks Media Over Coverage of Wife's Alleged Witness Intimidation
Prime Minister Netanyahu released a four-minute video statement this afternoon attacking the “left-wing media” for their coverage of his wife, claiming she has made significant contributions to Israel. Netanyahu alleged these media outlets receive millions in funding from wealthy foreign opponents of his government. His statements appear to be in response to the investigative report by the TV program “Uvda,” which revealed evidence that his wife Sara had orchestrated intimidation campaigns against both a witness and a prosecutor involved in the ongoing case against Netanyahu.
Sefi Ovadia, who spearheaded the Uvda investigation, posted the following response to Netanyahu:
Mr. Prime Minister,
Your wife sent people to curse a bereaved family, harass a witness, intimidate the prosecutors in your trial, and spread slander about your political rivals. The public would appreciate a substantive response or an apology, including from your wife.
Tonight, the Attorney General based on Uvda’s investigative report, ordered the police to open a criminal investigation into Sara Netanyahu.
Palestinians in Gaza claimed that Israel killed five journalists in an air attack this morning. The IDF was quick to provide the following response and counterclaim:
An Israeli Air Force aircraft conducted a targeted strike overnight, guided by intelligence from Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman), the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), and the Southern Command. The strike targeted a vehicle carrying a cell of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists in the Nuseirat area.
The strike eliminated several PIJ operatives, including:
Ibrahim Jamal Ibrahim Sheikh Ali – An operative involved in military operations and combat propaganda for PIJ.
Faisal Abdullah Muhammad Abu Qamtan – Head of security in the Nuseirat area for PIJ.
Muhammad Iyad Khamis Ladaa – A combat propaganda operative for PIJ.
Ayman Nahad Abdul Rahman Ghadi – A combat propaganda operative for PIJ, previously part of the organization’s naval force.
Fadi Iyhab Muhammad Ramadan Hassouna – A combat propaganda operative in the Nuseirat area for PIJ
.
Intelligence from multiple sources, including a list of PIJ operatives captured by IDF forces during operations in the Gaza Strip, confirmed that four of the individuals killed were definitively associated with the PIJ terror organization. Some of these operatives had been acting under the guise of journalists.
Today, the IDF also destroyed a 2-kilometer tunnel in northern Gaza, in the Jabaliya area.
Yesterday, there was a court session in the Netanyahu trial which the Prime Minister was not obliged to attend. The judges are attempting to speed up the trial, trying to convince defense attorneys to refrain from going over every point made by the prosecution in Netanyahu's direct testimony. At the current rate, this portion of the trial could take 3 months. Netanyahu's lawyers, whose main goal these last five years has been to delay the trial as much as possible, were seemingly unimpressed with the judges' arguments.
ULTRA-ORTHODOX DRAFT
The chances of securing an agreement on the issue of the ultra-Orthodox draft seem to be becoming slimmer. Prime Minister Netanyahu promised the Shas leaders that an agreed upon bill would be reached in two weeks—That was three weeks ago, and there is no sign of any agreement on the horizon. The ultra-Orthodox parties are threatening to withhold support for the budget, which must be passed by the end of March otherwise new elections are called automatically.
There was some hope that an agreement could be reached. Initially, the Army stated that it was capable of conscripting 3,000 Haredi soldiers over the course of 2024. However, this year has passed, and of the thousands of draft notices sent to prospective Haredi draftees, only a few hundred were answered. There had been hope that the war would cause the ultra-Orthodox individuals to change their staunch opposition to the draft. Sadly, that has far from been the case.
At the same time, large populations of Israelis who had been willing to accept the ultra-Orthodox refusal to draft are no longer willing to tolerate that their sons and daughters serve in the army and sometimes make the ultimate sacrifice.
To further complicate the impasse, making it almost unsolvable, the Army has recently concluded that it is faced with a shortage of 12,000 soldiers a year. The Army now asserts that by the end of 2025, the IDF will be able to absorb all of the ultra-Orthodox young men who turn 18— a number which currently totals 12,000 a year and growing.
Until this point, politicians were able to hide behind the Army’s assertion they were only able to absorb 3,000 ultra-Orthodox soldiers this year—a threshold number that would have potentially been specified in a bill that the ultra-Orthodox might accept. However, with the Army publicly updating their significantly larger need, there is no room for a fake compromise. The underlying problem remains the chasm between the country’s need for the ultra-Orthodox to serve in the army, alongside the demand of ultra-Orthodox leadership to keep their constituents out of the IDF.
It is almost inconceivable to envision how the coalition could pull together enough votes to pass a law that will spare the ultra-Orthodox from sharing their equal portion of the military burden. How this deadlock ends is unclear. While the ultra-Orthodox have no better potential future government, without a bill to exempt their constituents from the draft, it is going to be hard for their Rabbis to make the rational decision to remain in the current coalition.
TRAVEL NEWS
El Al announced its plans to suspend flights to Moscow for the upcoming week. Indeed, El Al has continued to fly to Russia—one of the only OECD airline to do so. The reason for the suspension of flights was the Kazakhstan airliner that seems to have been accidentally shot down by Russian anti-aircraft fire. As a result, Russian airspace has been deemed unsafe at the moment.
Bulgaria Air has resumed service to Israel, conducting two weekly Tel Aviv-Sofia flights, with plans to increase to three in February 2024. Bulgaria Air is joined by six other returning airlines: Wizz Air, Aegean Airlines, Azerbaijan Airlines, Air Seychelles, Air Europa, and LOT.
Nevertheless, demand still far exceeds capacity. Wizz Air currently serves Larnaca alone, while Aegean Airlines has limited service to Athens and Larnaca. Despite the ceasefire, seven major airlines—including Air India, KLM, and Lufthansa, along with all U.S. carriers—have not yet resumed operations.
A proposed amendment to the Aviation Services Law, which would temporarily suspend airline compensation requirements, stalled when Economic Affairs Committee Chair David Bitan halted discussions this month. The amendment to the Aviation Services Law will be reconsidered in 2025. Airlines like Ryanair have lobbied for changes, including the reopening of Terminal 1 to maintain lower operating costs.
El Al has launched a program offering Army reservists 100 frequent flyer points per day of service since October 7, 2023. Eligible reservists must have served at least 100 days and register between December 29, 2024, and January 15, 2025. Registration is limited to 25,000 participants.
Here are the reflections I shared in Newsweek at that time:
When I went to sleep on Monday night, there was no reason to think Tuesday would be special, in any way. Other than a scheduled TV appearance to discuss Israeli elections, (a subject that seems to just keep giving), I expected to have a rather uneventful day. That quickly changed at 7AM with my iPhone’s exit from ‘sleep mode’, triggered by a string of non-stop notifications of missile attacks on southern Israel. It soon became apparent that although it had caught me (and the rest of the Israeli public unaware), for the first time in many years, our army had initiated the exchange of fire by killing the senior Islamic Jihad commander, Baha Abu al-Ata.
With the my phone pinging constantly and missiles inching closer to Tel Aviv, I woke my son (who would have gotten up soon in any case) to discuss the developments. However, merely one moment later, I had to wake my wife, as sirens began to wail outside and my phone confirmed there was an incoming missile fired on Tel Aviv. We sprang to the safe area of our apartment, along with our dog, and remained there until we heard the unmistakable explosions that indicate a successful missile intercept.
The TV broadcasters promptly announced Tel Aviv schools would be closed for the day, followed by the guidance that non-essential workers were urged to stay home. Several hours later, the directive calling for the work stoppage was rescinded, but by then it was too late. The parking lots alongside the high-tech towers were empty of their usual scooters and bikes. The “Startup nation” had come to a near standstill, thanks to two very low-tech missiles which had been easily intercepted by Israel’s cutting-edge missile defense system.
I first began writing this column [Tel Aviv Diary] five and half years ago, during the summer of 2014 — the last time missiles rained down on Tel Aviv. Has anything changed during this half decade? I am afraid to say, very little. In the summer of 2005, under the leadership of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Israel decided to unilaterally withdraw from the Gaza Strip (an area it had occupied since the 1967 Six Day War). Prior to the Gaza withdrawal, Israel shared control of the Strip with the Palestinian National Authority. The IDF guarded the Israeli settlements, as well as the area near the Egyptian border, nicknamed “The Philadelphia Corridor”.
Sharon maintained that the cost of protecting those Israeli settlements was too high. He believed strongly that any future peace would only be attainable/obtainable by separating Israel from the Palestinians, to whatever extent possible. In the period before the withdrawal, Palestinian terrorists regularly attacked Israeli settlements. Militants continually fired crude missiles at Israeli towns and villages near the border. Although the withdrawal was vehemently opposed by Israeli settlers in Gaza who were forced to give up their homes, the disengagement was popular within the Israeli public at-large.
Back in 2005, many (myself included) said that if Gazans continued to fire missiles at us once we got out of the Strip, we would have every right to “level Gaza”. Others dreamed that an Israeli withdrawal would give rise to a new dawn in Gaza, which would somehow transform the Strip into the Singapore of the Middle East. Sadly, the first hint things would go wrong was when the state-of-the-art greenhouses left behind by Israel were rapidly ransacked and destroyed. Second, it did not take long for the rocket fire from Gaza to resume.
Israel-Gaza relations took a sharp turn for the worse in 2007, when Hamas, the fundamentalist Islamic party (whose charter explicitly calls for the destruction of Israel) seized power in the Strip, throwing out the Palestinian Authority. At that time, the Quartet which represented the US, the EU, Russia and the United Nations made it clear it would recognize the Hamas government only if it agreed to renounce violence, recognize Israel’s right to exist, and honor all agreements previously signed by the PLO with Israel. Hamas refused.
Since then, Israel has maintained tight control of the Gaza border and has upheld a naval blockade. Israel allows the transfer of almost unlimited food and other essential supplies into the Strip to ensure the people of Gaza possess enough essentials. Gaza’s only open border has been the one it shares with Egypt. However, except for a brief period when the Muslim Brotherhood came to power, the Egyptian government has consistently looked askance at the Hamas regime — as it was closely-tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, and thus considered an enemy of both the Morsi and Mubarak governments. Consequently, the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip has steadily worsened under Hamas rule.
Over the years, rocket fire on Israel has led to a number of confrontations in which Israeli troops have re-entered Gaza. In 2012, one major change did take place — Israel began deployment of its Iron Dome Missile Defense System. When first introduced, Israel did not have a sufficient supply of batteries to fully defend the entire country and the system had not been perfected. During the latest round of attacks, despite 450 rockets being fired at Israel in 48 hours, Israelis suffered less than a dozen light injuries — thanks to tremendous improvements to the Iron Dome system, along with the fact that all Israeli homes surrounding Gaza now have a safe room or bomb shelter. After seizing power 12 years ago, Hamas continues to rule in Gaza. This last round of fighting was the first in which Hamas did not participate — not out of any sudden affinity for Israel, but rather, as Dr. Doron Matza stated: “Hamas found a way to fight Israel without paying a price. Israel aimed all of its fire at the Islamic Jihad.” Not only was Hamas able to back the fight without paying a price. Hamas also saw its major rival (one supported by Iran) weakened by Israel, at least in the short-run.
This brings us back to the killing of Baha Abu al-Ata. There is no question al-Ata was a terrorist, who constituted a legitimate target in Israel’s eyes. In fact, it was reported that al-Ata had also been a target two years ago. Israel’s decision to carry out the attack in the middle of coalition negotiations, in which — at the moment — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not even have the mandate to form a government has raised questions. This latest mini-war initiated by Israel has made it more difficult for MK Benjamin “Benny” Gantz to form a minority government with the support of Arab Israeli parties. In the midst of this targeted action, Netanyahu still found time to go to the Knesset and pick a fight with some of the leaders of those parties.
Leaving political questions aside, what has been accomplished during these two days? Has Israel regained its deterrence? Hardly, and the killing of one mid-level terrorist resulted in two days of rocket fire that disrupted the life of millions. Has the life of the average Gazan improved? Obviously not. Does the Israeli government have a coherent strategy on how to deal with Gaza? No. Are we any closer to either a political or military solution than we were five years ago when I first started writing this column? Sadly, that answer is also, no.
Marc —
Bet you will comment on the NYTimes article “Israel Loosened Strike Rules, Multiplying Risks to Palestians.”