DAY 445 OF THE WAR: Sorrow Filled Morning, as Returned Hostage Dies; Houthis Launch Missile at Central Israel in the Middle of the Night; Netanyahu Trial Continues
Tel Aviv Diary December 24, 2024
To everyone celebrating, wishing you a Merry Christmas!
∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞
Our Next ZOOM BRIEFING will take place on Sunday, December 29th
6PM Israel Time • 4PM GB • 11AM EDT • 8AM PDT
Invitations will go out on Sunday morning
∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞
Over the past 14 months, there have been countless sorrow-filled mornings, too many to count. Despite often being lauded as one of the happier places to reside, this country harbors a perplexing contradiction—it’s a small nation overwhelmed by profound grief and sadness. As a well-known TV anchor shared this afternoon’s early news broadcast, “The heart cannot break any more than it already has.”
Last night, as we were heading to a concert (I'll elaborate a little on that later), I received the notification that another soldier had died. It wasn't until after the concert concluded that we discovered it was not just one, but three soldiers had been killed. They lost their lives to an IED explosion near their position in the Beit Hanoun region of northern Gaza.
This morning, in keeping with this country’s tradition, the news media contacted the families of those who died to learn a little about them. This practice is both heartwarming and heart-wrenching. No soldier dies in anonymity here— we learn their stories, in poignant tributes that honor each individual. It’s a beautiful thing that even on the darkest days, parents, siblings, and circles of friends, find the strength to share memories of their loved ones on the radio and TV. Yet, at the same time, this openness also extends their pain to the entire community, making it a shared burden, collectively felt by all of us to some degree.
This morning, I was deeply moved by the story shared by the mother of First Sergeant Netanel Pesach (21) from Elad. It became clear that while the family is religious, Netanel chose a different path. Netanel’s mother expressed a desire for the nation to understand that, like her son, everyone should embrace and accept others exactly as they are, irrespective of their beliefs or actions. Like many others, this message brought me to tears during these challenging times.
The day deteriorated further when news broke that Hanna Katzir (77), who had been freed from Hamas captivity during the first and only ceasefire and prisoner exchange, had died. Hanna returned gravely ill and spent several months hospitalized before she was strong enough to be released. On the dreadful day of October 7th, Hanna witnessed the murder of her husband and the kidnapping of her son from their home on Kibbutz Nir Oz. Hanna endured unimaginable horrors. She lived long enough to learn that Hamas had killed her son in captivity. Hanna’s last 14 months were heartbreakingly tragic—she had dedicated her life to developing her border kibbutz, only to face immense tragedy in her final days.
Beyond this heartbreak, a significant portion of Israel’s population walked through their morning bleary-eyed, having been awakened in the middle of the night once again by the Houthis. This time, just before 2 AM, the piercing sound of air raid sirens jolted me from a deep sleep. While I wish I could say I'm becoming accustomed to it, at least this time I managed to have both slippers on as we headed down to the shelter.
This time, the Army issued the warning without waiting to confirm the success of the intercept, allowing us ample time to reach safety. Thankfully, the intercept was successful, and there was sufficient time for everyone to reach shelters, had it been necessary.
The final report on Friday night’s attack revealed that insufficient warning time was provided. Consequently, it was decided that larger areas will receive warnings in future attacks. While this is a prudent decision, it means that any missile launch by the Houthis will send us all to shelters, regardless of the likelihood of a successful intercept. Nonetheless, it's clearly better to be safe than sorry.
THE HOUTHIS
Today, Defense Minister Katz issued a warning to the Houthis that Israel will target their leadership. Although there is no one who opposes this strategy, eliminating the leader of the Houthis presents a far greater challenge than targeting Nasrallah, who has been a focal point of Israeli efforts for years. I am confident that initiatives to gather intelligence on the Houthis are progressing, probably in collaboration with our allies, but achieving this goal is easier said than done.
NETANYAHU TRIAL
Today marked another session of testimony by Netanyahu. His lawyers have turned the proceedings into a farce, painstakingly examining over 315 instances where the prosecution alleged that Walla provided favorable coverage of Netanyahu. Throughout, Netanyahu has steadfastly denied any involvement, asserting that he had no influence over the coverage and that some of the cited examples were not even favorable.
The judges have requested that the defense attorneys cease this line of questioning, but the justices appeals were ignored. After six days of testimony, the defense has addressed only about 10% of the cases. Although this trial has already been lengthy, it appears it is destined to drag on even further.
IDF RELEASES REPORT REGARDING MURDER OF SIX HOSTAGES IN GAZA:
The IDF has completed its investigation into the deaths of the six hostages killed in what is known as “The Tel Sultan incident”. Here is the report they issued:
The Southern Command, the Prisoners and Missing Persons Directorate, the 162nd Division, and Shayetet 13 conducted the investigation. It examined the IDF’s activities during the battle to neutralize Hamas’ Tel Sultan Battalion and the circumstances that led to the murder of the six hostages by Hamas terrorists.
Timeline of Events
15 August 2024: Forces from the 162nd Division launched an operation to neutralize Hamas’ Tel Sultan Battalion following three months of activity in Rafah. The forces engaged in intense battles in the Tel Sultan neighborhood, discovering a central underground system in the area.
To further investigate and manage operations in the area, including the underground system, a dedicated command center was established, led by Shayetet 13 and the 162nd Division, in collaboration with additional security bodies. This center integrated special forces, intelligence units, advanced underground operational capabilities, and specialized technologies, considering the possibility of hostages being present in the area.
Operational Planning: Before the operation, a joint assessment by the Southern Command and the maneuvering division, in collaboration with the Prisoners and Missing Persons Directorate, estimated a medium-to-low probability of hostages in the area. However, forces were instructed to operate under the assumption that hostages could be present and to act with the necessary caution, conducting ongoing situation assessments with relevant professional bodies.
27 August 2024: Hostage Farhan al-Qadi was rescued from the underground complex. He was discovered alone and without prior intelligence regarding his location. Following the rescue, the forces conducted a dedicated assessment for the possibility of additional hostages in the area, halting operations for 24 hours. However, even after the rescue, the IDF had no intelligence about additional hostages in the area at the time.
31 August 2024: By midday, IDF forces located the six hostages in an underground tunnel. Unfortunately, they were deceased, with gunshot wounds visible on their bodies.
According to the pathological report, the estimated date of the murders was 29 August 2024. The entrance to the tunnel where the hostages were found was discovered on 30 August 2024, one day after their murder.
Findings and Conclusions
The investigation determined that the six hostages were murdered by the Hamas terrorists who held them. Although the IDF’s maneuver in the area was cautious and deliberate, it circumstantially influenced the terrorists’ decision to kill the hostages.
Details emerge — October 7th failures @ naHal oz
Additional reports are coming out detailing the events at the Nachal Oz army base and its border defenses. These reports reveal that Hamas employed drones to successfully disable several automated machine guns, which were not adequately protected. A further complication was that the operators could only manage one machine gun at a time, limiting their effectiveness during simultaneous attacks at multiple locations. Despite these challenges, the machine guns that were operational managed to eliminate numerous attackers as they attempted to infiltrate the country.
REMEMBERING EHUD MANOR (1941-2005)
Last night, we escaped reality for two hours and attended a concert in memory of Ehud Manor (Israeli lyricist, translator, poet and radio and TV personality). The communal singing event showcased many of his most famous hits, with his wife narrating the story of his life through the songs he composed. The crowd was primarily composed of people from our generation, Israelis attempting to recapture the essence of the country we fear is slipping away.
BUSINESS
Israel Aircraft Industry (IAI)
IAI has signed a significant contract with Israel’s Ministry of Defense to supply Arrow 3 missiles, in a deal valued at several billion shekels. The agreement was finalized shortly after another major deal was signed to provide air defense systems to Slovakia for approximately 2 billion shekels.
The massive order from the Ministry of Defense comes against the backdrop of the extensive use of Arrow 3 missiles since the outbreak of the war. These missiles are designed to intercept ballistic missiles at great distances from Israeli territory, while they are still in their trajectory outside the Earth’s atmosphere.
Winward
The maritime technology sector has witnessed a significant development with the acquisition of Windward, an Israeli predictive technology company, by FTV Capital for £216 million (approximately 1 billion shekels). This acquisition represents a notable success in the current market environment, as the sale price offers nearly double the company's initial IPO valuation of £126.5 million on the London Stock Exchange's secondary market. The deal, which includes a 47% premium over the previous day's closing share price, stands out particularly when compared to recent exits of Israeli companies that sold below their IPO valuations.
Windward, established in 2011 by former naval officers Ami Daniel and Matan Peled, has developed a sophisticated platform that provides real-time predictive insights for the maritime trade industry. The company's technology delivers crucial data and intelligence about vessels at sea, serving a diverse client base that includes major insurance companies, shipping operators, government agencies, and energy giants such as BP and Shell. This broad application of their platform, particularly in maritime transport insurance risk assessment, has helped establish Windward as a significant player in the maritime technology sector.
The company's financial trajectory shows promising growth, with revenues reaching $17.5 million in the first half of 2024, marking a 37% increase from the same period in 2023. While still operating at a loss, Windward has shown improvement in its financial metrics, with operating losses of $3.5 million and net losses of $4.2 million, down from $5.8 million in the previous year. With $13.8 million in reserves and a cash burn rate of $2.6 million, the company has projected achieving breakeven status by the end of 2024, a goal that likely contributed to its attractive acquisition profile for FTV Capital, which plans to delist the company from public trading following the purchase.
Aporia
The Israeli company Coralogix has announced its acquisition of the Israeli startup Aporia. The deal is valued at approximately $50 million. Both companies declined to provide specific details regarding the terms of the agreement, including the breakdown between cash and stock payments or the scope of retention incentives for employees and founders.
Aporia had raised approximately $30 million in two funding rounds, and the acquisition price is similar to its valuation in the most recent round—around $53 million pre-money, according to Pitchbook data.
Coralogix stated that, following the acquisition, Aporia’s team of about 35 employees will join Coralogix. Based on this team, a new division called Coralogix AI will be established, focusing on research and development in the field of AI security. Aporia’s founders, Liran Hasson and Alon Govkin, will lead this initiative.
Coralogix also announced plans to invest tens of millions of dollars in research and in addressing critical issues in AI, including transparency, monitoring, and control, aiming to ensure responsible, safe, and fair use of AI technologies.
FIZE Medical
FIZE Medical, which currently employs about 40 people in Israel and the U.S., has raised a total of $29 million to date. The company, founded in 2011 by Noam Levine, recently raised $14 million in a funding round led by Rapha Capital. The company develops fluid management systems designed for critically ill patients in intensive care units.
FIZE Medical has developed a system designed for intensive care units, addressing the challenge of managing the hemodynamic status of critically ill patients. Inaccurate diagnosis in such cases can lead to severe complications and is a leading cause of mortality in intensive care. In the U.S. alone, over 4 million patients are admitted to ICUs each year, with more than a third experiencing circulatory shock, which has a mortality rate of approximately 40%.
Additionally, about 50% of ICU patients develop Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) during hospitalization, resulting in mortality rates exceeding 20%. Early detection of AKI can significantly reduce morbidity and mortality rates.
∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞
A PIECE OF HISTORY
MAY 30, 2019: Netanyahu Unable to Form Government; New Elections Announced
Here is the Tel Aviv Diary essay I shared in Newsweek, at the time:
The Craziest Night in Israel’s Election History Could Fall on Netanyahu's Head
The Israeli Knesset has voted to dissolve itself and call for new elections—less than two months after Israelis last went to the polls and one month after the new Knesset was sworn in. Knesset members were forced to vote themselves out of a job even before the newly elected had a chance to receive their state-funded cars.
Last night’s vote unfolded slowly over the last four days. No one believed it could happen. Yet, it did happen—before the eyes of the country—on live television.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emerged from the last election 50 days ago with a clear majority to form a government. Sixty-five out of 120 members of the Knesset recommended to the President that Netanyahu be given the mandate to form the government. However, Netanyahu's potential coalition partners did not rush to agree to join his new coalition. In the previous election, it was evident that the last party to sign on received the best deal, by far.
During the last election campaign, Prime Minister Netanyahu promised he would not seek immunity after the election. However, as soon as the negotiations began, it became clear that a critical element in the coalition talks revolved around cementing an agreement among all the coalition partners to support legislation that would effectively grant Netanyahu immunity, i.e., freedom from prosecution in the three cases in which the Attorney General stated Netanyahu would be indicted, pending a hearing. That same legislation would severely limit the power of the Supreme Court.
Once Netanyahu’s primary goal became clear, his potential coalition partners had even less incentive to rush to reach an agreement. Party leaders knew they were the only people standing between the Prime Minister and a potential prison sentence. Coalition negotiations began very slowly. In the past, however, Netanyahu had always managed to sign an agreement with at least one or two of the smaller parties early in the process.
This time, Netanyahu’s hand was especially weak, since both the Blue and White and the Labor Party made it clear they would consider joining a coalition government with Likud, but only after Netanyahu was no longer its head. The remaining parties understood that Netanyahu had no choice but to agree to their terms. During the past week, although it was expected that negotiations would come down to the wire, and that Netanyahu would be forced to give away the proverbial store, most observers—and nearly all the politicians—believed that in the end, there would be a government headed by Netanyahu.
All this failed to take into account the ideological stances and determination of Yisrael Beiteinu party head, former Defense and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman, whose support base (i.e., the first generation of Russian immigrants) is slowly dwindling, made it clear that he was unwilling to compromise on a bill that defined the relationship between the ultra-Orthodox and the IDF. Without delving too deeply into the details of the law, it's worth noting that as Defense Minister, Lieberman helped negotiate a bill that was very favorable to the ultra-Orthodox, granting them almost complete exemption from military service. However, this was not sufficient for the elderly leader of the Gur Hassidim, who insisted on pushing for an even more comprehensive exemption.
Yisrael Beiteinu, whose supporters are overwhelmingly secular and vehemently oppose many of the restrictions the ultra-Orthodox attempt to impose on the country, considered any attempt to modify the exceedingly generous army exemption law a bridge too far. Lieberman made it clear from the start that his condition for joining the government was the passage of the original bill, unchanged—a demand he consistently repeated from the beginning of the election campaign. Unfortunately for Netanyahu, no one believed Lieberman. Everyone was certain he would compromise in the end, as he had in previous elections.
Without Lieberman's support, Netanyahu did not have the 61 votes needed to form a government. Although Lieberman's party had received only five seats, he understood he held the cards. Moreover, Lieberman has a long history with Netanyahu, much of it negative. We will never really know how much of Lieberman's decision to stand firm and refuse any compromise was due to his personal animosity towards Netanyahu, or how much he believed this was his last chance to stand up to the ultra-Orthodox on behalf of his constituents.
Ultimately, the one thing Netanyahu could not allow was for the usual electoral process to play itself out. Under the terms of Israeli election law, if Netanyahu was unable to form a government by midnight last night, he would have to return the mandate to do so to Israel’s President, Reuven “Rubi” Rivlin, who could then hand the mandate to anyone but Netanyahu to try. Instead of taking the chance that someone else might successfully form the government, Netanyahu took advantage of the provision in Israeli law that allows the Knesset to dissolve itself at any time. Once the Knesset has been dissolved, new elections are mandated.
So, a new election is now scheduled for September 17th. This means that by the time a new government is finally sworn in, Israel will have gone almost a full year with a transitional government, which has limited authority to act. Will the election results this time be any different from the last? Most observers think that is unlikely. However, there are too many factors at play to accurately predict the outcome.
However, a few things are clear. Netanyahu will find it difficult to claim he will not seek immunity, given his attempts to secure it after the last election. In any case, by the time a new government is formed—assuming it’s a right-wing government led by Netanyahu—there will be very little time to pass the necessary legislation to grant him immunity from prosecution.
Another factor to consider is what might happen with Gaza in the interim. The Netanyahu government had clearly negotiated a set of agreements with Hamas in Gaza, likely intending to fulfill them after the government was formed. It will be nearly impossible for Netanyahu to implement those understandings before the election, for fear of being perceived as “weak on terror.” At the same time, it’s unlikely that Hamas will remain patient for another six months.
My Radio Show from Monday