DAY 443 OF THE WAR: Did Netanyahu Sabotage the Hostage Deal?; The Houthis; Will Israel Take Action Against Iran?; Update on Syria
Tel Aviv Diary, December 22, 2024
Writing about the hostage negotiations is extremely challenging due to the prevalence of rumors and conflicting accounts that overshadow the few verifiable facts available. Amid this cacophony, I can confirm a few key details. Last week, there was a palpable sense of optimism that we were close to reaching an agreement. Earlier in the week, it seemed possible that a deal might be just days away. However, for various reasons, that possibility now appears less likely
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Last week, seasoned journalists observed that a promising sign of progress was the absence of leaks—details of the negotiations were tightly held, with only broadly optimistic remarks being shared publicly. However, this changed over the weekend when Prime Minister Netanyahu, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, stated:
I’m not going to agree to end the war before we remove Hamas. We’re not going to leave them in power in Gaza, 30 miles from Tel Aviv. It’s not going to happen.
Netanyahu's WSJ statement mirrors his approach from last spring, when a deal was close. Hamas wants to believe that releasing hostages will lead—at least indirectly—to an end to the war. However, Netanyahu's latest remarks make it harder for Hamas to trust that the process will lead to the desired outcome. His statement is also more than a little problematic since Netanyahu and his government have done nothing to replace Hamas with another governing force in Gaza.
Additionally, various reports have highlighted challenges posed by Hamas, despite the group's assertions that an agreement is imminent.
Tonight, a demonstration was held by individuals from the religious Zionist camp, many from the territories, demanding an immediate agreement to release all the hostages. The families of the hostages have been actively trying to mobilize the religious Zionist community to their cause, hoping to leverage their influence to compel ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir to cease their opposition to a potential deal.
In summary, it is nearly impossible to gauge the current state of negotiations, but unfortunately, I am less optimistic than I was a week ago.
HOUTHIS
Last night, we all went to sleep with one eye open, as the Houthis had threatened that Tel Aviv would not have a peaceful night. Fortunately, their threat did not materialize, and the night passed without an air raid alert. The Americans launched two waves of attacks on the Houthis overnight, although there are conflicting reports about the specific targets. It appears that an American ship mistakenly shot down an American F-18, however thankfully, the two pilots were rescued. Despite the Houthi’s claim of responsibility for downing the plane, this assertion is highly improbable.
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated today: “In the same way we dealt with the rest of the Iranian ring, we will address the Houthis.”
The Israeli Air Force has concluded its investigation into the failed missile intercept of the Houthi missile that landed in Tel Aviv very early Saturday morning, attributing the failure to technical malfunction. Furthermore, the delay in activating the air raid sirens was determined to be the result of human error. According to the Army, both problems have been addressed and rectified… We’ll see what the night brings.
As shown in the chart below, the Houthis have significantly increased their attacks on Israel this month.
Today, there was a report that the head of Mossad has advised that the only effective strategy to stop the Houthis would be to launch an attack on Iran. Concurrently, reports from Washington indicate that the US government is deeply concerned about Iran's potential to accelerate its nuclear weapons program. It has also been reported that the Biden Administration is maintaining close communication with the incoming Trump Administration regarding this subject.
Yaron Avraham, the political correspondent for Channel 12 news, provided the following update on how the Israeli leadership views Iran at the moment:
The political leadership in Israel estimates that Iran is under pressure due to the possibility that Israel might soon launch an attack on strategic sites within Iran. This assessment follows the disintegration of the regional axis and the dramatic weakening of Iranian proxies across the Middle East.
According to recent discussions at the highest levels of Israel’s political and security leadership, the Iranians believe that Israel agreed to conclude the campaign in the north to focus directly on Iran and exact a price. Consequently, in these discussions, it is understood that Iran is connecting two or possibly three recent developments:
The elimination of air defense systems in Iranian airspace, paving the way for Israeli Air Force operations.
The agreement on a ceasefire in Lebanon.
The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.
As a result of these developments, the Iranians are reportedly holding intense consultations to decide on their next steps.
The discussions further highlight the understanding that Israel must do everything possible to prevent Iran’s return to Syria and Lebanon—a goal to which the Iranians are heavily committed. Additionally, it is considered essential for Israel to avoid prolonged friction with Iran at this time, which does not serve Israel’s interests. Simultaneously, Israel is likely advancing its capabilities in preparation for dealing with Iran.
SYRIA
Every minor action in Syria is being closely scrutinized for clues about the type of government that may emerge. Today, there were two significant signals. The leader of HTC met with the Turkish Foreign Minister, notably exchanging his military uniform for a business suit—a symbolic transition.
Additionally, it was announced that a woman, Isha al-Dibs, has been appointed as the head of the Women’s Affairs Office within Syria’s interim administration. This appointment is a positive indicator that the new administration does not intend to impose a Taliban-style government that excludes women from the public sphere.
Moreover, it was reported today that the Syrian interim government has refused Iranian request for overflights for its commercial aircraft.
“UVDA” (FACT), INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALISM
The country has been buzzing about the latest episode of the highly rated investigative show “Uvda” (Fact). Airing on Thursday night, the episode centered around the WhatsApp messages of Chani Bleiweiss, a close confidant of Sara Netanyahu and the entire Netanyahu family, who recently passed away.
In the explosive report, it was revealed that Sara Netanyahu directed individuals to protest against a key witness in Benjamin Netanyahu’s trial— a move that would constitute a criminal offense.. The report also implicated the Prime Minister’s wife in orchestrating actions against the prosecutor in the Netanyahu case, anti-government protesters, and anyone else identified as an adversary of her husband.
In a normal country, revelations like those in Thursday night’s show would be sufficient to topple the government. However, in recent years, so much unacceptable behavior has been normalized in this country that it appears this scandal, like so many others, will fade away after a few days.
WATCH 60 MINUTES TONIGHT
Tonight, 60 Minutes is interviewing a former Mossad agent on the Beeper attack on Hezbollah. The interview is taking place with the approval of the Israeli government. It should be interesting.
BUSINESS
Decart
In my opinion, Decart stands out as one of the most fascinating Israeli startups to emerge recently, showcasing remarkable growth and innovation in the AI space. Founded in 2023 by Unit 8200 alumni Dean Leitersdorf and Moshe Shalev, the company has quickly made waves in both the technological and investment communities, raising a total of $53 million within its first year—including a recent $32 million Series-A round led by Benchmark, with participation from Sequoia Capital and Zeev Ventures. The company's valuation has reportedly reached approximately $500 million, reflecting tremendous confidence in its potential.
What makes Decart particularly interesting is its dual approach to innovation. The company has developed software that makes AI model training ten times more efficient and cost-effective, addressing a critical need in the market as training costs continue to rise. This technology has proven so valuable that Decart achieved profitability within just three months of its founding, currently generating monthly revenues of approximately $830,000 through partnerships with major cloud infrastructure companies operating Nvidia-powered server farms.
The founders' backgrounds add an intriguing dimension to the company's story. At just 26, Leitersdorf holds a Ph.D. in distributed computing and had published 15 research papers by age 23. Shalev, 37, comes from an ultra-Orthodox background and joined the IDF through a specialized program for Haredi soldiers. Their unlikely partnership, formed in the corridors of Unit 8200, has proven remarkably successful in driving innovation.
Perhaps most impressively, Decart has demonstrated its technology's potential through Oasis, a real-time AI-powered video game that creates fully interactive worlds without traditional coding. The game, which uses "next-frame prediction" to generate dynamic environments, captured the attention of industry leaders like Elon Musk and garnered over three million users within its first three days of release. The launch sparked widespread interest across social media, with users generating 300 million views of gameplay videos and attracting attention from major figures in the gaming industry, including the CEO of Epic Games.
Justt
Justt, founded in 2018 by Ophir Tahor and Ronen Ben-Ami, has developed a system that analyzes over 500 data sources to determine whether a chargeback is justified. Unlike existing solutions that rely on manual handling or predefined templates, Justt’s system uses artificial intelligence to customize responses for each case. The platform also continuously improves through machine learning. According to the company, their solution integrates efficiently with existing systems and adapts to meet regulatory requirements. Currently, Justt serves over 200 clients in industries such as e-commerce, tourism, and delivery services. The company also anticipates achieving profitability by 2027.
Our key differentiator in the industry is the ability to grow alongside our clients, constantly enhancing results through advanced machine learning, said Ophir Tahor, co-founder and CEO.
Our platform helps businesses efficiently manage payment disputes, recover lost revenue, and simplify processes with financial institutions. This investment will allow us to expand into global markets and accelerate technological developments.
As of now, Justt employs around 100 people, 75 of whom are based in Israel.
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A PIECE OF HISTORY
Gaza Flareup
In November 2018, tensions between Israel and Gaza escalated significantly following a covert Israeli military operation in Khan Younis on November 11th, in southern Gaza. The operation, conducted by an elite IDF unit aimed at gathering intelligence, was compromised, leading to a fierce gunfight. During the clash, an Israeli lieutenant colonel was killed and another soldier wounded. Additionally, seven Palestinian terrorists, including a senior Hamas commander, were killed in the exchange of fire. The revelation of the operation greatly intensified regional tensions.
In response to the operation, terrorist groups in Gaza launched an unprecedented barrage of approximately 460 rockets and mortars at southern Israel over two days. The Iron Dome missile defense system successfully intercepted most of these projectiles, but some struck populated areas, causing injuries and property damage. In one incident, a direct hit on a residential building resulted in the death of an Israeli civilian and injuries to others. The bombardment also caused extensive damage to infrastructure in several communities near the Gaza border.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded with extensive airstrikes on over 160 targets across Gaza, focusing on the infrastructure of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The targets included weapons depots, command centers, tunnels, and media offices linked to Hamas. Despite the scale of the Israeli response, the intense rocket fire from Gaza continued, forcing many Israelis living near the border to spend long hours in shelters.
The hostilities were brought to an end on November 13, 2018, following an Egyptian-mediated ceasefire. The agreement received mixed reactions in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the ceasefire, citing strategic security considerations. However, it sparked significant internal dissent, particularly from Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who believed Israel should enter Gaza to eliminate Hamas. Lieberman, who resigned in protest, criticized the ceasefire as a surrender to terrorism and accused the government of lacking resolve in dealing with Hamas.