DAY 439 OF THE WAR: Hostage Deal May Be Near, Poverty Prevalent Among Israel’s Children, Israelis Pessimistic About the Future

Tel Aviv Diary, December 18, 2024

Reports emerging from the Arab world are highly pessimistic about the likelihood of an agreement being reached in the next few days. While the White House remains cautiously optimistic, officials have acknowledged that similar past optimism has often not led to tangible outcomes. However, this time, sources in Israel have also expressed a strong sense of optimism. Although Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have voiced their opposition to the agreement, I believe Netanyahu will proceed regardless. For a more detailed discussion regarding the status of negotiations, check out the video clip below from my appearance today on i24News.

REMEMBERING OUR FALLEN AND WOUNDED

Today, we honor those who have been wounded in Israel’s wars and terror attacks. It is important to acknowledge that this war has led to a significant increase of 13,500 wounded individuals who now receive services and support from the Ministry of Defense—including 5,000 are grappling with psychological trauma resulting from combat. Regrettably, this number is expected to rise, as PTSD often emerges months or even years after fighting ends.

One particularly disturbing statistic is that 59 soldiers have lost their lives in Gaza due to accidents, along with five fatalities that occurred in Lebanon. Additionally, 1,440 soldiers have sustained injuries by accident. These tragic incidents include: friendly fire, accidental bomb detonation, munitions mishaps, and various other operational errors.

LEBANON

With just one month remaining before Israel must withdraw its troops from Lebanon, the Army continues to destroy as much Hezbollah infrastructure as possible. During recent operations, engineering units uncovered a subterranean passage stretching several dozen meters, leading to a Hezbollah command center. The center contained combat equipment, surveillance devices, and tactical gear essential for coordinating and conducting regional operations. Nearby, additional stockpiles were discovered, including one located within a place of worship. These caches held large quantities of explosives, firearms, hand-carried munitions, and other military supplies. All the discovered equipment and the tunnels were promptly destroyed.

NATIONAL INSURANCE INSTITUTE 2023 ANALYSIS

The following is a summary of findings of the National Institute, with two important caveats to consider. First, while survey shows that poverty is widespread across all segments of Israeli society, the notably high percentage of children living in poverty is attribute in part to the large family sizes prevalent in the ultra-Orthodox community. Second this survey covers the year 2023, when the data for 2024 is released, the negative impact of the war will undoubtedly result in worse figures.

Israel’s Position in OECD Poverty Rankings

Key Findings:

Israel faces significant challenges in poverty and inequality among OECD nations, according to the 2023 National Insurance Institute Poverty Report. The country's performance is particularly concerning in several key areas:

International Comparison

• Israel has the second-highest poverty rate among OECD countries, exceeding the OECD average (11.6%) by eight percentage points

• Only Costa Rica shows higher poverty levels

• Child poverty in Israel also ranks second-highest, trailing only Costa Rica and significantly exceeding the OECD average

• In terms of inequality (Gini index), Israel ranks seventh-highest, with only the United States, Turkey, Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica, and Lithuania showing greater disparities

Welfare Spending

Israel's welfare spending remains notably low compared to other developed nations:

• Current spending: 16.6% of GDP (increased from 15.8% in 2022 due to war-related support)

• OECD average: 22.4% of GDP

• Only South Korea and Ireland spend less

• For comparison, France leads with 32% of GDP allocated to welfare—double Israel's spending

Domestic Poverty Landscape

Overall Poverty Statistics (2023)

• Total people in poverty: 1.98 million

• Children in poverty: 872,400

• Poverty rate changes from 2022 to 2023:

  • Individuals: 20.8% → 20.7%

  • Families: 20.3% → 20.1%

  • Children: 28.1% → 27.9%

Demographic Distribution

Contrary to common perceptions, poverty affects all segments of Israeli society:

• Non-Haredi Jews: 51% of the poor population (14% poverty rate)

• Arab families: 36% (38.4% poverty rate, down from 38.9%)

• Haredi families: 13% (33% poverty rate, down from 33.9%)

Employment and Poverty Correlation

The number of wage earners significantly impacts family poverty rates:

General Population:

• No earners: 64.8% poverty rate

• One earner: 22.2% poverty rate

• Two earners: 8.7% poverty rate

Haredi Population:

• No earners: 62.1% poverty rate

• One earner: 41.7% poverty rate

• Two earners: 22% poverty rate

ARMS PRODUCTION SUFFICIENCY

Yesterday, I posted an entry discussing Israel’s efforts to achieve maximum self-sufficiency in arms production. Last night, the Atlantic released a detailed analysis on the state of the U.S. arms industry, titled “The Crumbling Foundation of America’s Military.” This extensive piece is well worth the read for those interested. In short, the article points out that American armaments factories are outdated and insufficient in number, and the U.S. struggles to produce enough armaments for its own needs, let alone those of its allies. This situation underscores why Israel’s ramp up its own arms production is critical, not just to circumvent potential boycotts or external pressures, but also to ensure a steady supply of arms that the U.S. might be unable to provide.

ISRAEL DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY

A new survey conducted by the Israeli Democracy Institute reveals some interesting insights into the current state of public opinion in Israel. The findings, which reflect sentiments prior to the announcement of the ceasefire in Lebanon, show that optimism regarding national security was declining.

When examining where it is perceived to be safe for Jews to live, we see a stark contrast in responses between Arab and Jewish participants.

The chart below illustrates that, across all groups, a minority of Israelis believe that the government is doing enough to secure the release of hostages.