DAY 437 OF THE WAR: Houthi Ballistic Missile Sends Millions to Shelters; Additional Signs of Progress on Hostage Agreement; Netanyahu’s Trial Continues; Israeli Youth in Crisis

Tel Aviv Diary, December 16, 2024

We believed the war was essentially over. Imagine our surprise when in the middle of the afternoon, while I was engrossed in work at my computer, the piercing sound of the air raid alarm abruptly resonated throughout the room. I quickly put on my shoes. Our dog, who had been lying behind me, instinctively jumped down and headed toward the door. With all the neighbors’ children in school, the shelter was mostly empty.

Once again, the Houthis in Yemen have managed to drive millions of Israelis in central Israel to seek refuge in their shelters. Following the ceasefire in Lebanon, they have launched six ballistic missiles and five drones at Israel. All of the ballistic missiles were intercepted before they could cause any damage. However, one drone got through our defenses, striking and damaging a balcony on an apartment building in Yavne.

It is almost certain that the Israeli Air Force will launch strikes against Yemen in the coming days. These attacks are expected to be substantial, though no one in Israel is under the illusion that these retaliatory strikes will eliminate the Houthi threat. At the onset of the war, American officials cautioned Israel about the Houthis' unpredictability and relentlessness, which make them almost impossible to completely neutralize

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HOSTAGES

Rumors about a hostage deal continue to gain momentum. Today in the Knesset, Defense Minister Katz asserted that an agreement to release the hostages is closer now than ever. Hamas has issued similar statements. Meanwhile, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir criticized what he termed an “irresponsible agreement” for the hostages' release.

A few days ago, Ben-Gvir met with one of the hostages who had been released in the initial exchange. She recounted her harrowing experience of being sexually assaulted during her captivity and implored him to prioritize the release of those still held, who were suffering from ongoing assaults. Ben-Gvir's response was as shocking as it was tone-deaf: “You don’t understand. If we get them released now, it will ensure that 10,000 women will be raped in the future.”

Ben-Gvir’s response was absurd, however, it does reflects a pervasive fear among some Israelis. The trauma of October 7th has instilled a genuine anxiety about the possibility of another similar event recurring. While I have no doubt there will be future colossal security failures—likely not in my lifetime—another October 7th will not occur. Israel will never again leave its borders unguarded. Using October 7th as an excuse to avoid striking an agreement is both cynical and misguided.

From my understanding, there remain differences between Israeli negotiators and Hamas, but the sense is that these gaps can be bridged. Reports suggest that any agreement reached will likely be only partial, as the government is unwilling to end the war just yet.

President-elect Trump weighed in today, stating, “As you know, I gave warning that if these hostages aren’t back home by that date [his inauguration, January 20th], all hell’s going to break out.”

Trump was also questioned about whether he would authorize preemptive strikes in Iran. Trump’s response was, "Why would I say that? Can you imagine if I said yes or no?" Regarding support for possible Israeli strikes, Trump added: "You don't talk about that before something may or may not happen. It's not something I would ever answer.”

NETANYAHU TRIAL

Today marked another session in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s trial. His lawyers are meticulously taking him through every piece of evidence the prosecution holds. At the current pace, it is expected to take several more months to complete this phase, which exclusively addresses Case 4000—i.e., the corruption investigation looking into the relationship between Netanyahu and Bezek/Walla owner Shaul Elovitch.

Netanyahu’s primary argument today was that all the personal connections between him and the head of Bezeq were actually his wife Sara’s connections. Furthermore, he asserted that any requests for favorable media coverage originated from his wife and that he had no knowledge of them.

The line of defense Netanyahu presented today ties into Netanyahu’s assertion he had no idea he was granting a major benefit to Bezeq. Last week, Netanyahu presented a rather absurd video clip featuring his aide handing him a stack of papers for him to sign, which Netanyahu did without reviewing the content.

Thus, Netanyahu’s main lines of defense in Case 4000 appear to be:

1. “It wasn’t me; it was my wife.”

2. “I never paid attention to what I was doing.”

This is a peculiar defense strategy, to say the least.

THE COALITION vs. THE ATTORNEY-GENERAL

There was a meeting scheduled for tonight among the coalition leaders to discuss the dismissal of the Attorney General. However, the meeting was canceled after several key figures opted not to attend. This decision infuriated Ben Gvir, who has been demanding progress on this matter. In protest, Ben-Gvir’s party withheld their votes on the budget this evening. Despite Ben-Gvir’s act of defiance, the budget passed, thanks to the support of Gideon Sa’ar and his party.

YOUTH IN CRISIS

The Elem Organization (Israel's leading nonprofit supporting at-risk youth and providing mental health and trauma support to children, teens, and young adults) reported today that they have met with 13,393 youth this year, and one-third of them reported suffering from mental health issues. Half of the youth reported alcohol use, a quarter admitted to drug use, and 20% reported experiencing violence outside the home.

Rabbi Shai Piron, who heads the Elem organization and served as Education Minister a decade ago, issued a stark warning about the risk of losing an entire generation of children affected by this war. He pointed out that almost no family remains