DAY 436 OF THE WAR: Signs of Progress in Securing Hostage Agreement, Judicial ‘Reform’ Returns on Steroids, The Future of Syria, Trump and Netanyahu Speak
There are increasing indications that progress is being made toward reaching an agreement on a hostage release and ceasefire. Current reports suggest that the main point of contention with Hamas revolves around the number of hostages to be included in this “humanitarian agreement.” At present, no party appears prepared to agree to an arrangement that would entail the release of all hostages.
During a press conference in Jordan yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated:
With regard to Gaza, as I said, I think the single most important thing that can happen to change the reality on the ground for children, women, and men who remain caught in this crossfire that Hamas initiated so many months ago, would be to conclude a ceasefire and hostage return. That’s the single thing that can fundamentally change what’s going on in Gaza, and that’s why all of us are working intensely to bring it over the finish line. It’s been the focus of my efforts, the efforts of my colleagues over the course of the last few days – Jake Sullivan, Brett McGurk, Bill Burns, and others. And that’s what will make the biggest difference. And this is moment to finally conclude that agreement.
For Hamas, as I said before, the cavalry is not coming to the rescue. They are not going to get the wider war that they’ve long sought–whether it’s with Hezbollah attacking Israel, whether it’s Iran, whether it’s many Iranian-aligned proxy groups, that’s not going to happen. And I suspect that one of the reasons they’ve re-engaged in a more positive way the last couple of weeks reflects that. And Israel, as I’ve said, some time ago achieved its core military objectives necessary to helping ensure that October 7th never happens again: dismantling the military organization of Hamas and dealing with the leaders who were responsible for October 7th.
So, this is a moment to bring this to an end, and bring this to an end in a way that gets the hostages home and finally brings relief to people who suffered and continue to suffer every single day. Meanwhile, we continue to re-double and re-triple efforts to get assistance in to people who need it. And while much more needs to be done, we’ve seen in recent days, again, the number of trucks go – trucks of assistance go up significantly into the hundreds. We got a UN mission into northern Gaza, which is very important so that we can have eyes on understanding what was going on there. So even as we’re trying to get the ceasefire/hostage deal completed, we’re pressing, pushing, driving on getting assistance to people who need it.
At the moment, I remain somewhat pessimistic about the realistic prospects of reaching an agreement to return the hostages and establish a ceasefire, but time will tell.
JUDICIAL “REFORM”
On Thursday, I wrote about the clash with Justice Minister Levin over the appointment of justices to the High Court. Last night, Levin formally announced his intention to pass legislation altering the process for selecting justices, a critical element of the judicial reform. He declared that unless the judges are willing to compromise, he will push forward aggressively with his proposed initiative.
Some Likud spokespeople have questioned why both sides cannot simply come together to work out a solution. However, Levin himself has not been willing to meet with Acting Chief Justice Amit.
At the moment, Levin faces a significant challenge: the ultra-Orthodox parties are refusing to cooperate until they secure the passage of their bill, which exempts their yeshiva students from military service. This legislation will be very difficult for the Likud to pass. Several Likud members have already stated explicitly they will not support a bill that satisfies the demands of the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Tel Aviv Diary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
It is completely unclear how this situation will unfold.
Former Defense Minister and Chairman of Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Lieberman, wrote the following regarding the coalition's actions:
It is impossible to fight simultaneously against Iran, the Supreme Court, and the Attorney General. We must put an end to the internal Jewish conflicts and focus on concluding the wars with our external enemies.
Advancing the draft-evasion law, alongside efforts to take control of the Supreme Court and oust the Attorney General, is pushing Israeli society to the brink of collapse and an unprecedented internal confrontation.
The hostages are still in Hamas captivity. A war is raging in Syria. In the West Bank, Abu Mazen’s rule is on the verge of collapse. The Iranians continue to enrich uranium, and yet, this government chooses to ignite a civil war.
Netanyahu is sacrificing the country to maintain his coalition. This madness must be stopped.
Former Assistant Attorney General Moshe Lador sparked controversy when he stated that if the comprehensive judicial reform—which fundamentally alters the nation's system of governance—were reinstated, pilots and other reserve duty volunteers should consider halting their service. Lador’s statement was widely condemned by everyone, from Prime Minister Netanyahu on down, with some even calling for him to be prosecuted.
At the same time, and more contentious, former Sephardic Chief Rabbi, Yitzhak Yosef, brother of the current Sephardic Chief Rabbi, delivered a speech declaring that no ultra-Orthodox individuals—including those not actively studying in yeshivas—should serve in the Army.
One of the most important questions facing Israel— a question largely beyond our control—is what type of Syria will emerge. Will Syria develop into a multicultural democracy, or will it adopt a Taliban-like regime, presenting a new threat to us? Or perhaps it will evolve into something of a middle ground. Anything is possible, and only time will reveal the outcome.
I hope Israel is taking steps to reach out to Syria’s emerging government. Both the U.S. and the British are already doing so. Here is what U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said about Syria:
Good evening. Less than a week ago, Bashar al-Assad fled Syria, ending more than five decades of dictatorship. Syria has changed more in less than a week than in any week this last half-century. Shortly after Assad’s fall, I set out a set of principles essential to delivering on the aspirations of the Syrian people—who, for the for the first time in most of their lives, now have the prospect of shaping their own future. I returned to the region this week to build consensus around these principles with key partners.
Today, the United States and our partners in the region have agreed on a set of shared principles to guide our support for Syria and its people going forward. America and our partners have an important stake in helping the Syrian people chart this new path. We know that what happens inside of Syria can have powerful consequences well beyond its borders, from mass displacement to terrorism. And we know that we can’t underestimate the challenges of this moment and in the weeks and months ahead.
The Syrian population has been traumatized by decades of repression. Throughout its rule, the Assad regime stoked tensions among ethnic and religious lines to divide the Syrian people. After more than a decade of conflict and many decades of corruption, humanitarian needs of the people are massive. ISIS and other terrorist groups still maintain presence in Syria, and want to use this period of uncertainty to try to regain a foothold. No one understands these challenges better than Syrian people themselves. And Syrians know they are going to need support from their neighbors and from the international community to meet these challenges.
In this region and elsewhere, we’ve seen how the fall of a repressive regime can swiftly give way to more conflict and chaos, how the shoes of one dictator can be filled by another, or how interference by an outside country can be thrown off only to be replaced by another. That’s why it’s so important that we and our partners came together today to agree on principles that will guide our efforts to help the Syrian people meet these challenges and build the inclusive, non-sectarian, peaceful and sovereign state they want.
Our message to the Syrian people is this: We want them to succeed—and we’re prepared to help them do so.
Today’s agreement sends a unified message to the new interim authority and parties in Syria on the principles crucial to securing much-needed support and recognition – which we’ve reflected in a joint communique that should be issued very shortly.
We agreed that: the transition process should Syrian-led and Syrian-owned, and produce an inclusive and representative government; the rights of all Syrians including minorities and women should be respected; humanitarian aid should be able reach people who need it; state institutions should deliver essential services to the Syrian people; Syria should not be used as base for terrorist groups or others who threaten Syria’s people, its neighbors, or the world; chemical weapons stockpiles should be secured and safely destroyed; Syria should have peaceful relations with its neighbors; relevant organizations should have access to facilities that can help determine the fate of missing Syrians and foreign nationals – and eventually hold abusers accountable.
On this point, let me just add that the United States continues our own dogged, determined efforts to find American journalist Austin Tice and bring him home safely.
Now, no one has any illusions about how challenging this time will be, but there’s also something incredibly powerful at work: a Syrian people determined to break with the past and shape a better future. Look at what we’ve seen over the past few days, what the world has seen so many demonstrations of Syrians’ commitment to build a different kind of nation, to embrace their newfound freedom, to choose national unity over narrow sectarian or ethnic interests.
We see it in people who came out to mosques and public squares around Syria for Victory Day celebrations, including the thousands who packed into Damascus’ Umayyad Mosque. We see it in the thousands of Syrian families of disappeared people trying to help one another find missing loved ones. We see it in SDF raising the flag of the Syrian revolution. We see it in the local volunteer groups that have sprung up all throughout Syria to clean streets, to deliver bread and medicine to those in need. We hear it in Syrians in the street singing, “Hold your head high, you are a free Syrian!”
All of this was unthinkable just a week ago and it does speak to the promise of this moment. We’re determined to work with Syrian people to shape a future that lives up to that promise. Today’s agreement produced real progress toward that shared goal.
In the meantime, the new regime reassures the women of Syria. The Syrian newspaper Al-Watan published a general decree from the new regime on behalf of Tahrir al-Sham:
It is strictly forbidden to interfere with women’s attire or to give them orders regarding their external appearance, including matters of modesty. We hereby confirm that individual freedom is guaranteed for everyone, and that safeguarding it forms the basis for building a civilized nation.
A Belgian parliament member of Iranian descent expressed skepticism, noting that this decree reminds her of a similar proclamation issued after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and the subsequent grim outcome is well documented.
AL-JULANI REGARDING ISRAEL
Syrian Rebel leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, stated that Syria has no interest in Israel, and therefore, Israel no longer has any reason to intervene with what’s going on in Syria.
SECURITY CABINET CONVENED
The security cabinet is meeting tonight to discuss the situation in the West Bank. The issue is particularly complex, heightened by concerns that extremist groups might try to capitalize on the recent turmoil in Syria and take over from the Palestinian Authority. In a notable development, uniformed members of the Palestinian security forces recently engaged Hamas operatives in Jenin for the first time in many years. This confrontation occurred after Hamas members had stolen two armored vehicles from the Palestinian police.
The IDF has long recommended that the government take measures to bolster the Palestinian Authority. Meanwhile, Finance Minister and Deputy Defense Minister for the Territories, Bezalel Smotrich, continues efforts to weaken and undermine the Authority.
TRUMP AND NETANYAHU SPEAK
President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke yesterday. According to i24News, Trump promised to address the Iranian issue but also stated that annexing the West Bank was off the table. Other Republicans have voiced similar concerns, pointing out that Israel’s international standing is already fragile, and that annexation would only exacerbate the situation.
GAZA
The Army continues to conduct limited operations in Gaza, carrying out almost daily targeted attacks. Here is the statement issued by the IDF Spokesman regarding Saturday's attack:
An Air Force aircraft recently conducted a strike, guided by intelligence from Military Intelligence (Aman), the Shin Bet, and the Southern Command, eliminating the terrorist Imad Jaro, an operative in the military wing of the Hamas terrorist organization. The terrorist operated in a structure used by Hamas operatives to plan and execute terror attacks against IDF forces and the State of Israel in the humanitarian area of the region.
Jaro was actively involved in managing Hamas’ rule in the Deir al-Balah area, maintaining continuous contact with the military wing and providing them with support for combat against IDF forces. In addition, he was responsible for Hamas’ political operations in the central camps, overseeing various government offices.
The terrorist held a dual role, serving as the chairman of the governmental emergency committee in the central camps and as the mayor of Deir al-Balah.
General Michael E. Kurilla Commander of CENTOM Meeting the General Staff
DRASTIC RISE IN DEATH FROM AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS
So far this year, 411 Israelis have died in car accidents, an increase from 344 fatalities recorded last year. This marks the highest number since 2008. In the intervening years, Israeli cars have become safer, and some of the worst roads have been upgraded. However, the budget for the commission responsible for reducing accidents has been slashed over the last 15 years from NIS 650 million to NIS 60 million. It seems that reducing accidents and road fatalities is no longer as high a priority as it once was.
ECONOMY
The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) announced today that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November decreased by 0.4%. This was a welcome surprise, as market analysts had anticipated a drop of only 0.2%–0.3%. The sharp decline in the index has reduced the annual inflation rate over the past 12 months to 3.4%. By comparison, the CPI rose by 0.5% in October, with the annual inflation rate at that time being 3.5%.
Significant price decreases were recorded in the following categories: fresh vegetables and fruits (-6.6%), transportation (-1.5%), education, culture, and entertainment (-1.3%), and footwear (-0.7%). Notable price increases were observed in clothing (+1.2%) and in food, housing, and miscellaneous items, each of which rose by 0.3%.
The largest contributor to the CPI drop was the category “expenses for overseas travel and domestic flights,” which fell by about 6.8%, contributing a 0.28% decrease to the CPI. The decline in flight prices follows a previous surge caused by the intense fighting in the north.
Fresh vegetables and fruits also saw a significant drop of 6.6%, contributing approximately 0.2% to the decrease in the CPI. However, the housing services category, specifically “owner-occupied housing,” rose by 0.5%, contributing 0.08% to the CPI increase.
Meanwhile, it was reported that housing prices, including new and second-hand homes, rose by 0.5% in September–October compared to August–September. A regional breakdown of price changes revealed the following trends:
Once again, it’s clear that the investigatory reports of the war have been consistently ignored. Here is the article I wrote about the Comptroller's findings on “Operation Protective Edge,” which was first featured in Newsweek on March 1, 2017.
Comptroller-General Judge Yosef Shapira released a scathing report on Israel's 2014 Gaza War. The report was divided into two parts—tactical and strategic. The strategic/political section was probably the most devastating part of the report. However, two important points stand out: First, throughout the time leading up to the war, no serious discussions were held to establish what Israel's goals in Gaza should be. Second, Prime Minister Netanyahu did not allow discussions that might have led to an alternative approach to going to war.
A major focus of the report was the question of whether the army was prepared to tackle the threats presented by the tunnels Hamas had dug into Israel. The report clearly stated that Israel did not achieve its goal of destroying all the tunnels, having successfully destroyed only half of them. Additionally, the report claimed that although intelligence was aware of the tunnels' existence, no plan—neither strategic nor tactical—had been developed to deal with them. Much of the criticism of the report centered on the fact that so many of the comptroller's comments were devoted to the inadequate and incompetent handling of the tunnels and not to other aspects of the war—such as the successful use of the Iron Dome system, which reduced Hamas' previous strategic weapons (its rockets) to a mere nuisance for most residents of the country. Of course, an investigation generally focuses on what failed and not what succeeded.
The Comptroller's report reflects the general sense of how this country has been governed over the past few years—namely, by a current government that reacts but never proactively takes action. It’s clear now that Israel does not have a coherent policy towards Gaza and never really did. Although the Comptroller's report did not address the West Bank and the Palestinian Authority, there is no reason to believe that the same lack of planning and discussion doesn't apply to Israel's policies regarding the future of the West Bank or Israel’s relationship with the Palestinian Authority.
A major segment of the report was devoted to the structural failures of Israel's National Security Council. However, these weaknesses are not new and have been discussed in previous reports. Moreover, there is no reason to believe that the report's recommendations in this area will be seriously addressed.
The bulk of the report's contents were known in advance and had been widely discussed. There were no bombshells revealed in the report, and while it specifically criticized individuals such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Moshe "Bogie" Ya’alon, former Army Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, and former head of the National Security Council/current head of the Mossad Yosef "Yossi" Cohen, it did not officially assign blame to any of them; something that might have impacted their careers. IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot responded to the report by stating that the IDF has studied the report and taken actions to address the weaknesses it highlighted.
Israel has a very limited tradition of leaders taking personal responsibility for their actions. The late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin resigned because his wife, Leah Rabin, retained a bank account in the US with $5,000 after he was no longer Ambassador, at a time when Israelis were not allowed to hold foreign bank accounts. In the wake of the devastating report on the Yom Kippur War, Prime Minister Golda Meir resigned, as did Prime Minister Menachem Begin after the failures of the First Lebanon War. Given such scant precedent, there is no expectation that this Comptroller's report will have a significant political impact.
I hope all remaining hostages are still alive