DAY 429 OF THE WAR: Assad Regime Collapses: Implications for Israel; IDF Expands Buffer Zone, Occupies Syrian Mt Hermon, Trump and Biden Comment on Events in Syria

Tel Aviv Diary, December 8, 2024

The rapid unfolding of events in Syria caught the world by surprise. Just last week, experts unanimously insisted it couldn’t happen, yet they were again proven wrong. It became evident that without support from Russia and Iran, there was no real Syrian army. The rebels executed their maneuvers with unexpected speed, illustrating how swiftly a regime can topple once it begins to crumble. Absent the backing of Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, Assad was left without any real chance of maintaining power.

I don’t want to repeat too much of what I wrote last night when this outcome seemed imminent, but now that it has indeed occurred, it’s worth revisiting what this unexpected shift could mean.

This morning, I ran into a friend on the street, and we exchanged smiles. For the first time since the October 7 massacre 14 months ago, I publicly said, “I am optimistic.” This transformation has been gradual over the last three months, beginning with the successful beeper operation against Hezbollah, leading to their defeat, and now culminating in Assad's downfall. Our concerns have shifted from fearing for our very survival to now finding ourselves in the most fortified position since the Six-Day War. With Assad gone, the Shiite “ring of fire” around Israel has collapsed. What once seemed like a noose, carefully constructed by Iran over two decades, has unraveled in mere weeks.

Yahya Sinwar initiated this war believing he could launch a surprise attack that would consolidate the Iranian “ring of fire” and either destroy or fatally weaken Israel. However, it turned out that Nasrallah was not prepared for an all-out war. In hindsight, Nasrallah made the worst possible choice, i.e., attacking Israel just enough to provoke retaliation, but not hard enough to deliver a significant blow.

As a resident of Tel Aviv, I can offer this broader perspective while fully acknowledging the severe hardship endured by Israelis near the Lebanese border. Indeed, Nasrallah’s actions displaced 80,000 Israelis and inflicted considerable damage on towns and villages, yet ultimately, they did not yield any significant benefits for Hamas. Nonetheless, these events persuaded the Israeli government of the necessity to neutralize Hezbollah in order to return residents of the North to their homes.

The success of Israel’s military campaign is largely attributable to the strategic ingenuity of those in the intelligence community who planned the beeper operation. This initiative, combined with the extraordinary work of the IDF intelligence division and the Air Force, enabled Israel to diminish Hezbollah’s rocket capabilities significantly. The catastrophic outcomes that Israelis had braced for in a conflict with Hezbollah simply did not materialize. Furthermore, advanced anti-missile systems effectively neutralized the threat Iran had spent decades constructing in Lebanon.

The spectacular successes of the Intelligence community, backed up by the IAF was matched by a ground campaign markedly different from that of 2006. Haunted by the memory of Hezbollah’s punishing defense back then, the IDF adopted a new strategy for this conflict. This time, they deployed overwhelming forces of highly experienced fighters—seasoned by months of extensive combat experience. These troops, supported by tanks and APCs outfitted with the latest technologies, advanced into Lebanon with minimal casualties.

Amidst these developments, Iran tried to flex its muscles. However, a coalition of allies, coupled with U.S. assistance, and Israel’s missile defense systems, effectively neutralized their initial attack. A limited Israeli counterstrike was intended to demonstrate the futility of Iran's defenses against the Israeli Air Force. Nevertheless, Tehran failed to heed this warning. Instead, they launched another attack, which achieved only marginally better results.

The subsequent Israeli counterattack proved devastating for Iran. It sent an unmistakable message to Tehran and the global community: Israel possesses the capability to dominate the skies over Iran if it chose to do so. This series of events has not only neutralized the threats around us but has also fundamentally altered the strategic balance in the region.

As a result of recent Israeli advances, Hezbollah has been forced into an agreement it previously rejected—a clear indication of its weakened position in Lebanon. The shift of the power balance in Lebanon has also emboldened the Syrian rebels, prompting them to launch a decisive offensive.

Lebanon’s Changing Dynamics

The agreement in Lebanon appears more promising today than at any time in recent memory. In 1981, Israel was on the verge of a peace agreement with Lebanon, but the Syrians and the gradual rise of Hezbollah derailed those efforts. Today, after five decades, Syria’s Assad regime has fallen, and Hezbollah has endured two significant setbacks from which it may never recover. Beyond its direct losses to Israel and the damage to its reputation, the fall of Assad and the emergence of a diverse Syrian opposition—united by their animosity toward Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia—severely restrict Iran's ability to rearm Hezbollah or maintain substantial influence in Lebanon.

This moment could mark a pivotal realignment in Lebanese politics, potentially paving the way for the emergence of a truly independent Lebanon. The country’s political trajectory may finally escape the shadow of foreign domination, ushering in a new era of sovereignty and self-determination.

Syria’s Uncertain Future

While the situation in Syria remains unpredictable, it’s worth contemplating the possibility of a brighter future. Thirteen years of battling Assad’s regime may have catalyzed a shift among opposition leaders—even those with jihadist origins—towards a shared aspiration to establish a stable, normal, state. With countless Syrians killed or imprisoned for decades, this collective ordeal could unify diverse factions in their efforts to construct a multi-ethnic, functional nation.

Could this new Syria evolve into a state with which Israel might negotiate peace? While I'm not ready to envisage myself savoring hummus in Damascus or driving (in the hypothetical car I don’t own) through Syria to Turkey and Europe—a dream shared by many Israelis—the concept no longer feels entirely out of reach.

The initial remarks attributed to Syria’s new leader, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, are intriguing:

We are open to friendship with everyone in the region—including Israel. We don’t have enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and Iran. What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a great deal. Now we are taking care of the rest.

While it’s unclear the extent to which these statements reflect al-Jalali’s true intentions, similar sentiments have been echoed by other rebel sources. If true, they could mark a significant turning point.

Israel’s Strategic Moves

Israel isn’t leaving anything to chance. The IDF has seized several strategic locations along the border, including the summit of Mount Hermon—an essential vantage point at 9,000 feet that provides control over the entire region. Israeli officials have stated that these measures are temporary, intended to stabilize the border while Syria’s future remains uncertain

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Meanwhile, according to foreign sources, Israel has been striking Syria’s remaining chemical weapons stockpiles and ballistic missile facilities. These preemptive strikes are clearly designed to neutralize any lingering threats before they can resurface.

US CENTCOM STATEMENT [DECEMBER 8, 2024]

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted dozens of precision airstrikes targeting known ISIS camps and operatives in central Syria, December 8.

The strikes against the ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps were conducted as part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS, in order to prevent the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria.

The operation struck over 75 targets using multiple U.S. Air Force assets, including B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s. Battle damage assessments are underway, and there are no indications of civilian casualties.

CENTCOM, together with allies and partners in the region, will continue to carry out operations to degrade ISIS operational capabilities even during this dynamic period in Syria.

“There should be no doubt—we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria," said General Michael Erik Kurilla, "All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way."

A Moment for Diplomatic Boldness

While Israel’s tactical responses are justified, the current situation demands a bold diplomatic initiative, particularly in collaboration with the incoming Trump administration. The moment is ripe. In less than a year, Israel has gone from being perceived as its weakest in three generations to being seen as its strongest in over 50 years.

This newfound strength should be leveraged to achieve broader strategic objectives, including securing the release of hostages and establishing a framework for lasting stability in the region. Now is the moment for boldness and vision—a unique opportunity to shape the future of the Middle East in ways that benefit both Israel and its neighbors.

TRUMP REMARKS ON ASSAD

This is an interesting post that Incoming President Trump wrote about the fall of Assad:

Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever. Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting.

President Biden’s Statement Regarding Events in Syria

NETANYAHU TRIAL

The calls to postpone Prime Minister Netanyahu’s testimony in his ongoing trial, scheduled to begin Tuesday, have increased both in number and in absurdity. The initial request came last Friday from the Speaker of the Knesset, who argued that, Netanyahu’s testimony dates should be coordinated due to his role as a Knesset member. The court promptly denied that request.

The pressure escalated during a security meeting last night, where members reportedly shouted at Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara for not delaying the trial in light of the current security situation. Today, Education Minister Yoav Kisch joined the chorus, citing recent developments in Syria as further justification for postponing the testimony.

Despite these appeals, the judges remain resolute in their opposition to further delays. It is important to note that much of the trial's progress has already been hindered by delays requested by Netanyahu’s own legal team. No one forced Netanyahu to seek re-election while on trial, and the judiciary appears determined to adhere to the trial’s scheduled timeline.

The court did consent to a minor modification, postponing Wednesday's testimony by a few hours to accommodate the visit of the President of Paraguay. This modest concession underscores the court’s effort to balance procedural fairness with respect for state events, even amid ongoing demands for more extensive delays.

ECONOMY

A new study by the RISE Research Institute reveals a concerning 45% decline in Israeli startup formations over the past decade, dropping from 1,432 new companies in 2014 to 788 in 2023. The research challenges the notion that while fewer startups are being created, they are of higher quality. After examining metrics such as team size, capital raised, IPOs, and significant acquisitions, the study found no evidence of improved success rates among newer companies.

The data shows that out of every 100 new startups, only about 15 employ more than 25 workers, and just 3-5 employ more than 100. In terms of funding, only 6-7 companies out of 100 raise $25 million or more, and 3-5 raise over $50 million. Major success stories are even rarer, with barely one company out of 100 being sold for $100 million or more, and IPOs being extremely uncommon.

The study, conducted by researchers Danny Biran and Almog Griseiro, identifies several factors contributing to this decline. Traditional startup sectors such as apps and digital commerce have undergone consolidation, while emerging fields like generative AI require substantially higher initial investments. Additionally, large tech companies and multinational corporations offer increasingly competitive compensation packages, making it more challenging for startups to attract talent.

The research points to recent challenges that have further impacted startup formation, including the global economic slowdown, political instability, and war, all of which have made fundraising more difficult. The rise of generative AI has also created additional hurdles, as large companies offering free services have undermined the economic viability of startups in this field. The study's findings were based on data from the IVC database and LinkedIn information collected by Initiative Bright. I believe that the single most significant factor contributing to the decline in the formation of new startups is the presence of numerous international companies that have established major research centers in Israel and have been offering extremely competitive pay packages.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

The Case of Elor Azaria

On March 24, 2016, the killing of a wounded Palestinian assailant by Israeli soldier Elor Azaria in Hebron’s Tel Rumeida neighborhood ignited one of the most profound public debates in Israel’s history. Captured on video by the human rights organization B’Tselem, Azaria’s fatal shot to Abdel Fattah al-Sharif, who lay incapacitated after stabbing an Israeli soldier, quickly spread across the globe.

Azaria was arrested shortly after the incident, leading to a high-profile trial. Initially charged with murder, his indictment was later reduced to manslaughter. In January 2017, an Israeli military court convicted him of manslaughter, sentencing him to 18 months in prison, 12 months’ probation, and a demotion in rank. Azaria served just nine months before being released in May 2018.

The trial’s legal proceedings, while significant, were overshadowed by the societal debate it triggered. The Israeli military’s ethos of “purity of arms”—a longstanding doctrine emphasizing the restrained and ethical use of force—came under intense scrutiny. Critics argued that Azaria’s actions violated this principle, while his supporters rallied behind him, labeling him a hero and “our boy.”

The case unfolded against a backdrop of heightened tensions, with Palestinian stabbing and vehicular attacks creating a palpable sense of vulnerability among Israelis. Public sentiment was further inflamed by political leaders like Education Minister Naftali Bennett, who accused the military and government of abandoning Azaria. Supporters flooded social media and signed petitions demanding leniency, portraying him as a victim of an unforgiving system.

Yet, military leaders like Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot held firm, emphasizing the importance of upholding ethical standards. In a letter to soldiers, Eisenkot wrote,

We will not hesitate to fully implement the law against soldiers and commanders if they deviate from the operational and moral standards according to which we work.

Eisenkot's steadfast stance underscored the military’s struggle to balance public sentiment with its professional and ethical obligations. Amid the fervor, figures like former Shin Bet director Ami Ayalon offered a sobering analysis. Ayalon framed the debate not as a question of Azaria’s guilt or innocence, but as a reflection of deeper societal trends. He argued that Israel’s fixation on “security” had become a mantra justifying actions that erode the nation’s moral compass.

Ayalon highlighted how this dynamic risks undermining the core values that have historically sustained Israeli society. “In a climate where ‘security’ is sacred, ‘democracy’ must retreat into a shell and stay quiet,” he observed. The fervent public support for Azaria, he warned, exemplified the blurring of lines between justified military action and moral erosion. When figures like Maj. Gen. (Res.) Uzi Dayan defended Azaria’s actions, even absent an immediate threat, it signaled a worrying shift in the national ethos.

The trial, Ayalon contended, revealed how the relentless pressure of terrorism and the advent of social media have distorted public discourse. Simplistic narratives of heroism clashed with nuanced debates about military ethics, and the IDF’s moral code of conduct was painted as naïve or even counterproductive.

The Azaria case illuminated the challenges Israel faces in navigating the ambiguities of modern warfare. As Ayalon pointed out, counterterrorism is not solely a military battle but a societal struggle. It requires a delicate balance between addressing immediate security needs and maintaining democratic and humanitarian principles over the long term. The case forced Israelis to grapple with difficult questions: Can a nation uphold its ethical standards in the face of relentless security threats? And what are the implications when the distinctions between right and wrong start to blur?