DAY 428 OF THE WAR: Hamas Releases Video of Hostage Matan Zangauker; Soldier Killed in Gaza; Syrian Government Forces Close to Collapse; Opportunities and Dangers for Israel
The horrific October 7th massacre occurred on Shabbat, and since then, Saturdays remain a day when significant news unfolds in our region.
The first, and most heart-wrenching event of the day in Israel was Hamas’s release of a video showing Matan Zangauker alive and speaking in captivity. His mother, Einav, one of the most vocal advocates for the hostages, had waited 428 days for a sign of life. It is difficult to say which is more emotionally harrowing: watching the video of Matan, or seeing his mother plead for an end to the war that would bring the hostages home.
We can keep eliminating Hamas leaders week after week, but doing so will not fundamentally change the situation in Gaza. Perhaps Netanyahu will consider making a deal, though public opinion in the country remains divided. Even some right-leaning individuals I know believe there is little left for us to accomplish militarily. Israel's geopolitical position has significantly improved due to developments in Lebanon, Iran, and Syria. This shift in our strategic standing might allow us to take the calculated risk of withdrawing from Gaza, even if Hamas remains in control due to the lack of an alternative. However, if the Iranian-backed regional threat, or “ring-of-fire,” is indeed unraveling, as it appears to be, we could leverage this opportunity to keep Hamas weakened and prevent it from becoming a significant threat again.
HOSTAGES
Earlier in the war, one might have argued that negotiating with Hamas and releasing imprisoned terrorists in exchange for hostages would project weakness and harm Israel’s deterrence. However, now, that no longer seems to be the case. Today, after the miraculous military achievements of the past several months, Israel’s perceived strength is perhaps greater than at any time since the Six-Day War. While there are never any guarantees, risks must be taken to recover those left behind on in Gaza.
It appears that hostage negotiations may resume this week, and we can only hope for the best. Reports indicate that Israel is pursuing a partial deal while continuing the war. However, I believe that only a comprehensive agreement—one that secures the release of all the hostages and brings an end to the conflict—truly aligns with our long-term interests.
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WEST BANK
This evening, a terror attack occurred outside Hebron, where a soldier was seriously injured in a ramming incident, and a civilian sustained minor injuries.
SYRIA
Events in Syria are unfolding rapidly. Rebel forces have achieved significant advances along the main road traversing the spine of Syria, capturing both Hama and Homs. Their next target appears to be Damascus. However, the rebels seem to have bypassed certain areas, leading to groups near Damascus beginning to seize government positions, with the Syrian Army disbanding in some places.
One of the most pivotal developments is the decision by Syria's Druze community—previously neutral or passive supporters of Assad—to openly back the rebels. This shift has likely sealed the fate of Assad and his regime. Events are progressing so rapidly that by the time you read this, the situation may have evolved further. There is a genuine possibility that the Assad regime could collapse within the next 24 hours.
Notably, the experts who just last week asserted that Assad held an overwhelming advantage and the rebels would be defeated have been proven wrong, though they are unlikely to admit it. As of now, it is evident that Iran and Russia are abandoning Assad. For Russia, losing its bases in Syria would represent a substantial strategic defeat.
COMPLEX IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL, AMID SYRIAN REBEL UPRISING
The ramifications for Israel are multifaceted, and it is premature to predict the outcome with any certainty. The nature of the government that will emerge in Syria remains unclear. However, there are potential opportunities. This development could deliver another, possibly fatal, blow to the Iranian axis of evil, leaving only the Houthis as its significant proxy. Without Syria as a transit hub, it will be nearly impossible for Iran to resupply Hezbollah.
Additionally, a new Sunni-led Syria will likely require substantial aid from the Gulf States to rebuild its economy. These Gulf States, which already have covert or overt relations with Israel, could foster closer ties. With astute diplomatic initiatives, Israel might find an opportunity to engage with a transformed Syria, potentially paving the way for future relations. From this position of strategic strength, Israel might work toward building a new Middle East—though it must proceed cautiously and carefully.
IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENTS FOR ISRAEL, as Rebels Advance
Currently, Israel is reinforcing its positions on the Golan Heights due to concern that some rebel groups may not stop at the border. Rebels now control the entire area adjacent to the Israeli border. Additionally, the Israeli Army has provided assistance to the UN force stationed at a nearby base.
Tonight, the IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi met with the Northern Command and provided an update on the situation in Syria:
We need to conduct a situational assessment every few hours. With such a pace, every event here sets a standard and drives changes moving forward. Therefore, we are monitoring very closely with all available intelligence-gathering capabilities to keep track of what’s happening. The main focuses are, first, observing the Iranian involvement and their interests, which is our primary concern, and second, keeping an eye on the local actors here who are gaining control of the area—what they are doing, how they are behaving, and how they are deterred, ensuring they don’t make the mistake of turning against us. If there is such confusion, there is an offensive response, backed by a very, very strong defensive response. The aim is to be prepared both offensively and defensively.
Fighting continued over the weekend in Gaza. Tonight, it was announced that Captain Avraham Ben Pinchas (24) from Mahrasha was killed in fighting in Southern Gaza. Pinchas commanded a tank that was hit by a RPG.
Here is the report issued by the Army on the recent fighting in Gaza:
Combat troops from the Nahal Brigade Combat Team have been fighting in Rafah under the command of the Gaza Division (143) in recent months.
In recent days, as part of brigade-level raids conducted by the forces in the area, a booby-trapped tunnel shaft intended to harm our forces was discovered. The shaft and all related findings were destroyed.
During searches, the forces uncovered numerous enemy weapons and equipment, including a mortar launcher, explosive devices, hideouts used by militants, weapons stockpiles, and more.
In targeted strikes led by the brigade’s fire coordination unit, a mortar-launching militant cell was neutralized.
ANTISEMITISM IN AUSTRALIA
The escalating attacks on Jews in Australia reached a new level on Thursday night when two people firebombed a synagogue in Melbourne, causing significant damage. Alex Ryvchin, a leader within the Australian Jewish community, wrote the following:
The firebombing of a synagogue in Melbourne early this morning has brought our community to new depths of sorrow. It is also an entirely predictable development. For over a year we have seen racist mobs impeding on the rights and freedoms of ordinary Australians. We have been locked out of parts of our cities because the police could not ensure our safety. Students have been told to stay away from campuses.
We have been locked down in synagogues. Our security and place in society has been eroded. No more. I urge every Jewish Australian to do something today to deepen their connection to their community and their people. Light Shabbat candles. Put on tefillin. Put on a kippah. Give to charity. Put on a Star of David necklace. Do not be afraid. You belong to an extraordinary nation. And I urge our Prime Minister and our government to contemplate and reflect on how it has come to this. How under their leadership a house of prayer has been burned. How decent Australians now question whether they have a place in this country. We have been led into a period of darkness. It is time to bring the light and clarity to guide us out.
Cyprus has acquired the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Barak-MX advanced air defense system, capable of intercepting aircraft, UAVs, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles within a 150 km range. Previously used by Israel to defend against Hezbollah missiles targeting the Karish Gas Field, the system has also been sold to India, Azerbaijan (used against Armenian ballistic missiles), Morocco, and recently Slovakia. Additionally, the United Arab Emirates reportedly deployed the system in 2022 to counter Iranian threats.
The hate to us grows & the world seems to standby & do nothing. Am I living in Germany 1939? 🇮🇱🇮🇱