DAY 421 OF THE WAR: Soldier Killed in Gaza, Assad Opponents Make Stunning Advances, Ceasefire Still Holding in Lebanon, Hamas Releases Hostage Video
Tel Aviv Diary, November 30, 2014
NEXT ZOOM BRIEFING: Sunday, Dec 1, 6 PM Israel, 4 PM GB, 11 AM EST, 8 AM PST. Invitations will go out in the morning.
I debated about sharing an update tonight. After all, I had said that I would stop posting Saturday night updates once the war was over. However, I quickly realized that believing the war has ended—despite its diminished intensity—is simply a fallacy. As long as hostages are still being held in Gaza, they remain a harrowing signal that this war is not over.
The most significant development is a continuation of the story I began writing about on Thursday night regarding the rebel advance in Syria—which today has escalated into a major story throughout the Middle East, catching all of the experts off guard. As one analyst noted, this is yet another “black swan event.”
Last night, the rebels swiftly seized Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. The Syrian Army appears to be collapsing, having completely withdrawn from Aleppo entirely. The rebels have now taken control of the city, including its international airport, and they are pushing forward. They may now be poised to threaten Homs, which would represent a major reach for them
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This stunning progress by the Syrian rebels is partially attributable to Israel’s victory over Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s earlier involvement had been a key factor in enabling Assad to overpower and defeat the rebels during the initial phases of the civil war. Alongside Hezbollah’s intervention, Russians support played a pivotal role. However, Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has compelled them to withdraw much of their support from Syria.
This is what Abdullah Almousa, Editor-in-Chief of Syria TV (in exile), wrote:
I have pity for those busy with questions to where? Who supports the battle? What does Turkey want? What is Russia's position? What is the secret of rapid progress?
Very important points in the context of the battle: In short: It is a battle with an internal initiative preceded by a large and very professional equipment, and the battle takes into account Turkey's interests but not under the leadership of Ankara.
Preparation for the battle began two years ago when HTS began blitzkrieg operations on the front lines, and then all factions began training camps that the specialist and follower know are serious and not just for review, and military industrialization developed to the level of marches of at least 120 km, and the suicide marches used in the Ukrainian war, and the factions calmed down from their differences and expanded Tahrir al-Sham as the largest and most organized faction to accommodate everyone.
Russia is engaged in the battle with all its weight: but this complete decreased since 2022 when Russia withdrew 1,600 soldiers, all field experts and air defense systems and kept MiG air interceptors and 4 Sukhoi ground bombers. The four planes do not leave the battle sky, but previously there were 15 Russian Sukhoi aircraft in Syria, and the withdrawal of Russian Bantsir systems from the vicinity of Hmeimim leaves the base an easy target for marches, because this system is the best for intercepting marches
The Kremlin's statement today: “The Syrian authorities must impose their control and quickly restore security and order in this area.”
The statement is clear that the task of defending Aleppo is the responsibility of the Syrian regime and we cannot provide more than that.
As for Turkey, the Reuters security statement yesterday caused confusion. It is a diplomatic statement that says that the factions have the right to return to the lines of the 2019 agreement, but this does not mean that these are the limits of the battle.
The battle is an initiative of factions, an initiative that takes into account Turkey's interests. This general description of the decision to start the attack.
Turkey's position in short: It does not oppose the battle, but it does not support it at the same time, the Turkish artillery did not intervene, and there is no Turkish arming and ammunition for the factions as happened in the battle to lift the siege of Aleppo 2016.
The Iranians and their militias received large blows, and they have a limited number in Aleppo, specifically in its southern countryside, which is today the most advanced axes.
And the morale of the regime officers shocked me. I received the messages of the officers' conversations from their phones that the fighters found, some of which they recommend that they do not die in vain because Putin sold them and the army leadership did not send support.
When the swarms of Russian aircraft and tens of thousands of Iranian Revolutionary Guards are absent, there is very logical progress. We know the system and know the capabilities of its elements.
Where to? There is no need to stop the battle at some border. The advance can only be stopped if the regime gathers its forces, sends its reinforcements and ranks, and this is excluded according to what we see.
What does Aleppo mean? Taking control of the city of Aleppo turned the battle and blood into a political gain, Bashar al-Assad described it as the mother of battles, and after Aleppo, the regime regained its control over the pockets of the opposition in 4 Syrian areas, and stopped Arab and Western support for military factions, and the printers printed with Assad.
Many of our people are not preoccupied with this strategic definition of Aleppo. It is enough for him that he can visit the graves of the martyrs and return to his home, even if it is ruined.
What does the recent success of the anti-Assad forces mean for Israel? That's the million-dollar question, and I've encountered a wide range of opinions in the past day. Some argue that it could be worse for Israel to replace Iranian-backed Hezbollah supporters with jihadists on our border. I disagree. If our primary concern has been Iran and the “ring of fire” they’ve built around us, this development may help bring that to a final end.
One of the rebels was recorded yesterday saying: “The road to Jerusalem has changed. It no longer goes through Syria—Syria is for Syrians.” He made this statement while tearing down a poster of Iranian leader Khamenei. Iran has been a pernicious influence in the region since the fall of the Shah. I believe the continued weakening of Iranian influence will only work to Israel’s advantage.
LEBANON
The Israeli Army continues to act decisively against any perceived Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire. Today alone, they intercepted Hezbollah operatives four times as they attempted to transport munitions and weapons, targeting them with airstrikes. By rigorously enforcing the ceasefire, we can enhance the long-term outcome of this conflict compared to previous engagements, like those in 2024.
Numerous comments circulating suggest that the Biden Administration pressured Israel into accepting the ceasefire, claiming that without this intervention, Israel would have completely defeated Hezbollah. This might be a nice theory, however, it does not reflect reality. The IDF has been explicit: now was the appropriate timing for a ceasefire. There was very little more Israel could achieve short of trying to occupy the entirety of Lebanon—an endeavor our Army, after a year of combat, was not prepared to undertake. The ceasefire was implemented because the Army had achieved its objectives: Hezbollah has been defanged, and it was in Israel's best interest to conclude the conflict.
The IDF summarized its actions in Lebanon throughout the course of the war, as follows:
More than 12,500 Hezbollah terror targets were attacked in the northern sector, including over 1,600 military headquarters and more than 1,000 weapons storage facilities.
Targets attacked deep in southern Lebanon as part of “Northern Arrows”:
In Beirut: 360
In the Bekaa Valley: Approximately 1,000
Air Force operations in Lebanon as part of “Northern Arrows”:
Flight hours of fighter jets: 14,000
Sorties for attacks in Lebanon: 11,000
Navy operations in Lebanon as part of “Northern Arrows”:
Operational sea hours: Approximately 25,000
Ground maneuver data in southern Lebanon:
Brigade combat teams: 14
Special operations: Over 100
Divisional raids: More than 24
Damage inflicted on Hezbollah’s Radwan Force:
Destroyed weapons depots: Approximately 150
Destroyed operational headquarters: Over 160
Destroyed offensive terror infrastructure: More than 1,500
Eliminated Hezbollah operatives and senior officials:
Eliminated operatives: At least 2,500 with a high degree of certainty
Hassan Nasrallah and 13 members of Hezbollah’s senior forum targeted
Eliminated at the division commander level: 4
Eliminated at the brigade commander level: 24
Eliminated at the battalion commander level: 27
Eliminated at the platoon commander level: 22
Hezbollah’s capabilities significantly reduced:
It is estimated that Hezbollah retains less than 30% of the UAVs it possessed before the war.
Seized items by IDF fighters and the Loot Clearance Unit of the Technology and Logistics Directorate:
Approximately 12,000 explosive devices, UAVs, and explosive weapons were seized.
More than 13,000 anti-tank launchers and missiles, rockets, and anti-aircraft missiles were confiscated.
Over 121,000 communication devices, computers, electronic equipment, and documents were captured.
A total of over 155,000 items were confiscated.
GAZA
Fighting continues in Gaza. On Friday, Staff Sergeant Zamir Burke (20), from Beit Shemesh, was killed in combat in northern Gaza, and another soldier was critically wounded. Two additional soldiers were critically injured in separate incidents, one in northern Gaza and one in southern Gaza.
The IDF killed one of the participants in the October 7th massacre. Here is how the IDF Spokesman described the attack:
Earlier today (Saturday), the IDF conducted a precise strike, guided by the Gaza Division Fire Center (Division 143), on a vehicle carrying a terrorist involved in the brutal massacre on October 7.
The terrorist had been under intelligence surveillance for a significant period and was targeted based on reliable real-time information about his location.
The terrorist, Ahed Azmi Kadih, infiltrated Israeli territory and participated in the massacre on October 7 at Kibbutz Nir Oz.
The terrorist was employed by the global humanitarian organization World Central Kitchen (WCK). Following this incident, representatives of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) demanded clarifications and an urgent investigation from senior officials in the international community and leaders of WCK regarding the employment of organization workers who participated in the October 7 massacre and other terrorist activities against Israel.
DRONES FROM THE EAST
The IDF also reported that today it intercepted two drones originating from the east.
WEST BANK
On Friday, a terror attack occurred near Ariel, wounding eight people, three of them seriously. A Hamas terrorist, armed with an M-16 rifle, opened fire on a civilian bus near the West Bank city of Ariel. The incident ended when security forces shot and killed the assailant
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Among the wounded, the IDF reported that four were soldiers, all of whom sustained minor injuries. One of the most seriously injured victims was the bus driver, Hassan Elsachen, who suffered critical injuries while operating the vehicle targeted in the attack.
UAE OFFICIAL DELIVERS CONDOLENCES
Dr. Ali Rashid Al Nuaimi, a high-ranking official from the UAE, visited the shiva of a murdered Chabad emissary to personally offer condolences and reaffirm the UAE's commitment to coexistence. “UAE will never allow extremists to divide us. Today, more than ever, our country is committed to openness and peace,” Dr. Al Nuaimi said, vowing to honor the emissary’s legacy by fostering harmony among all communities.
TRAVEL ADVISORY TO THAILAND
In a related development, Israel's National Security Council has issued an urgent warning to travelers heading to Thailand. It stated that the same terrorist groups responsible for the killing of the Chadian emissary are planning an attack in Thailand.
EDAN ALEXANDER, PROOF OF LIFE
Hamas has released a video showing hostage Edan Alexander, as both proof of life and as a poignant plea for a hostage deal. A recent poll by Israel’s Channel 13 indicates that 71% of Israelis support an agreement with Hamas to release the hostages and end the war. This sentiment is even shared by 56% of Likud voters. Despite this fact, Prime Minister Netanyahu, dependent on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, continues to delay action, contrary to the desires of the vast majority of Israelis, including those from his own political base.
In response to the video, Ben-Gvir stated that releasing Alexander would necessitate freeing 1,000 Palestinian terrorist prisoners akin to Sinwar, a proposition he opposes. Conversely, there are reports that President-elect Trump has conveyed his desire to see the hostages freed before he takes office, offering a glimmer of hope.
“SHABBATARBUT”
This morning, I attended a “Shabbat Tarbut” event, a cultural/political gathering, in Yaffo. The panel featured three speakers: Mansour Abbas, head of the Ra’am party; Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon, former Defense Minister; and Hilla Alroy, Channel 13’s Health correspondent. The discussion was moderated by veteran journalist and social activist Lucy Aharish.
During the event, Aharish asked Abbas, a former member of the Bennett-Lapid government, about his when he last spoke with Netanyahu. Abbas replied that their last conversation occurred just before he signed an agreement with Bennett. Both Abbas and Aharish reminded the audience that prior to his joining the Bennett government, the Likud had publicly advocated for greater Arab inclusion in governance. However, once Abbas joined the Bennett government, the Likud suddenly denounced Abbas’s party as part of a “terrorist government.” Despite this unwarranted vilification, Abbas affirmed his continued commitment to wo
rk toward his party’s inclusion in future coalitions.
When asked whether he could envision joining a government that sidesteps the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Abbas noted that the government has neglected the issue for the past decade and posed the rhetorical question— "How has that worked out?" Addressing concerns that, following the events of October 7th, Israelis are disinterested in the topic and certainly not supportive of a Palestinian state, Abbas clarified that he was not advocating for any specific solution. Instead, Abbas argued that the government must at least acknowledge and address the issue, suggesting that initiating discussions could potentially improve the situation and open up opportunities. Abbas also pointed out that, of the 45 civilians killed by Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, 22 were Arab-Israelis.
Ya’alon, who spoke next, delivered one of his increasingly militant speeches. He opened by asserting that Israel is currently in the worst state it has ever been. He accused the current government of leading the country towards ruin, stating emphatically, “I am not exaggerating; this decline is happening without us even noticing.” Ya’alon stressed that this situation can only be saved by new governance to lead the country. "We must have new elections”.
Furthermore, Ya’alon called for the next government to finally draft a constitution for Israel, which he considers crucial for bridging divides and stabilizing the country. He criticized Netanyahu for being under the influence of Ben Gvir and Smotrich, arguing that their pressure has prolonged the conflict in Gaza because of their ambitions to settle there.
In a highly quoted remark, Ya’alon accused Israel of engaging in ethnic cleansing in northeastern Gaza, alleging that the population was being forcibly displaced. (It should be noted that such actions are only classified as ethnic cleansing if the displaced population is permanently removed and replaced by others, which as of now, is not the government's policy.)
Ya’alon’s speech offered little optimism. Once a Likud member with right-wing views, he now offers a sharp critique of the current government, warning of the dire consequences of its policies and actions.
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A PIECE OF HISTORY
Netanyahu Speaks to Congress—The Iran Nuclear Agreement
Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons was a top priority for Prime Minister Netanyahu during every visit to the United States and every meeting with President Obama. Obama had pledged to do everything in his power to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The United States, along with other major economies, had imposed crippling sanctions on Iran. However, China and Russia, two of the countries enforcing these sanctions, indicated to the United States in 2014 that they would not extend the sanctions into 2015.
Faced with this challenge, Obama became convinced that negotiations were the only viable way to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The strategy was to reach an agreement with Iran that would halt its nuclear ambitions in exchange for easing sanctions. By late fall, the P5+1—the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China) plus Germany—had reached an interim agreement with Iran and were committed to finalizing a comprehensive agreement by the following spring.
Prime Minister Netanyahu opposed the plan, claiming it would provide Iran with a path to nuclear weapons—an assertion that Obama and the American administration firmly rejected as inaccurate. Determined to stop the deal, Netanyahu launched a campaign against it, despite facing slim chances of success. By the end of 2014, Netanyahu was also deeply engaged in an election campaign.
During this period, Israel’s Ambassador to the U.S., Ron Dermer—who had previously worked as a Republican political strategist—contacted Netanyahu. In his book, Netanyahu wrote:
On Friday, January 8, 2015, I received a fateful call from Ron Dermer from our embassy in Washington. He told me that Speaker of the House John Boehner had called him asking whether I would be willing to address a joint meeting of Congress on the dangers of the impending nuclear deal.
It was a monumental decision. This would not just be another speech. I would be going into the lion’s den in Washington to challenge a sitting American president. Stirring up such a hornets’ nest on the eve of an Israeli election could have devastating political consequences.
The nuclear deal was Obama’s top priority. Blocking it was my top priority.
Bibi’s decision faced significant criticism. Many argued that opposing a sitting President was a grave error. Others voiced related worries, concerned that challenging the President could politicize support for Israel, transforming it into a divisive partisan issue. Netanyahu later wrote that one respected Democratic congresswoman called him and said: “Prime Minister, I strongly urge you not to come. But if you do, at least speak in a closed session.”
Netanyahu remained resolute and insisted on proceeding with his plans to address Congress. With Presidential election approaching, some of his ministers pleaded with him to wait until after the election so that his trip would not appear as a political act. However, Netanyahu stood firm. Reflecting on the situation, Netanyahu wrote in his book that he believed, “If I don’t take a stand on a nuclear deal that could threaten Israel’s survival, what the hell am I doing here [as Prime Minister]?”
Mort Zuckerman, publisher of U.S. News & World Report at the time, called Netanyahu before his trip to Washington, warning him: “You’re going into a political tinderbox. Democratic sensibilities are at their height. I tell you, Bibi, I’ve known Washington for many years, and I’ve never seen anything like this tension.” Zuckerman added, “So I have one suggestion for you: Be as respectful as possible to Obama.”
On March 3, 2015, Netanyahu delivered his controversial speech to a joint session of Congress. Fifty Democratic legislators boycotted the address. After thanking President Obama and the United States for the support they had given Israel, Netanyahu began the core of his speech with—
I’ve come here today because as the prime minister of Israel I feel a profound obligation to speak to you about an issue that could well threaten the survival of my country and the future of my people: Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons.
We’re an ancient people. In our nearly four thousand years of history many have tried repeatedly to destroy the Jewish people. Tomorrow night, on the Jewish holiday of Purim, we’ll read in the Book of Esther of a powerful Persian viceroy named Haman who plotted to destroy the Jewish people some 2,500 years ago. But a courageous Jewish woman, Queen Esther, exposed the plot and secured for the Jewish people the right to defend themselves against their enemies. The plot was foiled. Our people were saved.
You can read Netanyahu’s entire March 2015 address to the Joint Session of Congress here.
The audience in the hall received the speech itself well, but for reasons beyond my understanding, Netanyahu seemed to think that his rhetoric could sway opinions. Ultimately, his speech had no impact other than to foster animosity towards him within the Democratic Party, and the U.S. proceeded to sign an agreement with Iran. I will share more details on that in the coming days.