DAY 419 OF THE WAR: Ceasefire in Lebanon Mostly Holding— Now, What About The Hostages? Soldier Indicted for Manslaughter, Syrian Rebels Advance

Tel Aviv Diary, November 28, 2024

NEXT ZOOM BRIEFING: Sunday, Dec 1, 6 PM Israel, 4 PM GB, 11 AM EST, 8 AM PST

It’s a very strange and somewhat unsettling feeling—the sun is shining, the air raid sirens are silent, yet intense combat continues in Gaza. A stark reminder emerged around noon, as I was walking Milo, and a military helicopter, flew overhead. Its destination was unmistakable: it was bound for the nearby Ichilov Hospital, carrying a critically injured soldier. Beyond that, a grim truth weighs heavily on our minds—101 hostages remain trapped in Gaza’s tunnels, with only about half believed to still be alive.

The pressing question remains: if we were able to negotiate a deal with a still-powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon, why not with Hamas, which, though still functioning, has been severely weakened? Why does Netanyahu claim that Israel can retaliate if Hezbollah breaches the ceasefire and re-arms, yet suggests that if we withdraw from Gaza, a return would be off-limits? The silent screams of the hostages that echo in the consciousness of many of us, tragically, do not seem to influence those shaping policy… Meanwhile, the fighting in Gaza shows no signs of abating, particularly in the Jabaliya area.

CEASEFIRE WITH HEZBOLLAH

The ceasefire in Lebanon has largely held, albeit with some exceptions. Israel has adopted a very aggressive stance toward any breaches of the agreement. Any unauthorized movement by Hezbollah forces has been met with immediate gunfire. For instance, Israel used a drone to target Hezbollah fighters on one occasion and deployed aircraft to strike Hezbollah members attempting to install a rocket launcher on another

.

Israel’s strategy is to respond decisively to any infractions. The contrast between now and 2006 is striking. Back then, both an agreement and a ceasefire were necessary. Today, while we still pursue an agreement, we are unafraid to take bold actions that might risk the ceasefire’s collapse. Whether this deal succeeds hinges entirely on our own actions, or lack thereof.

YUVAL KASTELMAN

It has been a year since the terror attack at the Ramot Junction in Jerusalem, which tragically claimed four lives. The attack bore an additional layer of tragedy beyond the typical horrors of such incidents. During the attack, Yuval Kastelman, a former security official, stopped his car opposite the scene and engaged the terrorists with his handgun, killing at least one. An off-duty soldier neutralized the second terrorist.

However, as another soldier arrived, the first soldier called out to cease fire. Realizing he could be mistaken for a terrorist, Kastelman quickly dropped his gun and shed his jacket to prove he was not carrying a bomb. Despite these precautions, Kestelman was shot by the second approaching reserve duty soldier. Kastelman fell but managed to raise his hands, holding his National Identity card to affirm his Israeli citizenship. Nevertheless, Staff Sergeant (Res.) Aviad Frija continued firing, ultimately causing Kastelman’s death.

Here is the statement released by the IDF Spokesperson regarding the incident:

The Military Prosecution filed an indictment today (Thursday) against Staff Sergeant (Res.) Aviad Frija for the killing of Yuval Kastelman, of blessed memory, under the charge of manslaughter under circumstances of diminished responsibility. The indictment was submitted following a comprehensive investigation by the Military Police Criminal Investigation Division and after a hearing process.

According to the indictment, on November 30, 2023, during a deadly shooting attack at the Givat Shaul Junction at the entrance to Jerusalem, Yuval Kastelman, of blessed memory, arrived at the scene and acted to neutralize the attackers. Staff Sergeant (Res.) Aviad Frija was also present at the scene and engaged in neutralizing the attackers.

Immediately after the attackers were neutralized, Frija fired at Yuval Kastelman, of blessed memory, despite another soldier nearby calling on him to cease fire. Frija continued shooting at Yuval’s torso, even though Yuval had raised his hands, removed his coat, was unarmed, and posed no threat. This shooting caused Yuval’s death.

The IDF expresses its condolences to the Kastelman family. The Military Prosecution will continue to support the family and ensure they receive all the rights due to them by law.

SYRIAN REBELS ADVANCE

An interesting development has unfolded over the past few days in Syria. Syrian rebels have made a significant advance against government forces in the north, advancing to the outskirts of Aleppo. Reports suggest that the commander of all Iranian advisors in Syria was killed in yesterday’s clashes. Today, the rebels have extended their offensive, reaching their furthest position in five years. Why is this important to Israel? The Assad regime is a key component of the Iranian-Hezbollah alliance, and any weakening of Assad's position is strategically beneficial for Israel.

I have long believed that Israel's decision not to intervene in the Syrian war to halt the bloodshed was not only a moral error. However, Israel’s silence on the Syrian front has also proven to be a geopolitical misstep. Through its support for Assad, Iran managed to draw Russia into the conflict.

To briefly recap … The Syrian Civil War started in 2011, and by 2015, the Assad government was teetering on the edge of collapse. Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force, bolstered Assad with Hezbollah troops. When that support proved inadequate, Iran successfully urged Russia to launch a military intervention against the rebels. As a result, the combined forces of Assad, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia pushed most rebel forces into the Idlib region, over time.

The Syrian rebels are hardly allies of Israel. Their dominant faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is a rebranded version of Jabhat al-Nusra, an offshoot of al-Qaeda. Nonetheless, the rebel coalition also includes a significant number of moderate Sunni factions. Adding complexity to the situation, there are reports that Ukraine has been offering technical support to the rebels, particularly in drone operations. Ukraine regards Assad as an ally of Russia, which has been actively involved in the Syrian conflict.

This is the largest Syrian rebel offensive in a year, likely driven by the belief that Hezbollah, significantly weakened by its own casualties, is unable to reinforce Assad's troops. At the same time, Russia, heavily engaged in Ukraine, is unlikely to offer immediate support to Assad’s forces. Given Syria’s overwhelmingly Sunni population, the country has never been a natural ally for the Shiite coalition led by Iran.

While it is still too early to make firm predictions, this rebel resurgence is a significant development. The shifting dynamics in Syria could have major implications, and I will be monitoring the situation closely in the days and weeks ahead.

ANTISEMITISM IN NORTH LONDON

Jake Wallis Simons, the editor of the Jewish Chronicle, shared the following post on X (formally known as twitter). You can read the full story here.

Jewish pupils have spoken of their horror after their school bus was pelted with rocks and rubbish by teenagers from another school who shouted “f*ck Israel” at them, @JewishChron reports.

Two of the buses used by JFS, the largest Jewish school in Europe, were attacked by a group of around ten teenagers from another school as they made a stop in Edgware, north London.

Four teenagers also jumped onto one of the buses, swore at the JFS children and filmed them before getting out and throwing things at the bus.

“We heard what sounded like screaming from the bus behind us,” one 12-year-old boy, who only joined the school in September. "People in the back of the bus were screaming, “oh my God, they are throwing trash and rocks”.

“I was sitting at the front of the bus and everyone was completely terrified and hiding under our seats. It was really scary. They had big heavy rocks. There is a park nearby and they might have got the rocks from there.”

“They were also swearing at us, saying, ‘F*ck Israel, nobody likes you. F*ck off you b*tches.’ They were filming us like they were enjoying it. There were lots of people in the street and no one tried to stop them. I hope that something like that won’t happen again because it made me scared.”

JEWISH RESETTLEMENT OF GAZA?

The image below is causing a stir in Israel. It features Israeli settler leader Daniella Weiss who is spearheading efforts to resettle Gaza, alongside Israel’s Housing Minister, Yitzhak Goldknopf, at the entrance to Gaza near the Netazarim corridor.

TRAVEL NEWS

Several airlines have announced initial plans to resume flights to Israel:

Azerbaijan Airlines ……….…… November 30

Air France (France) ………... December 3

Air Seychelles ………………… January

LOT (Poland) ………..………… December 9

Aegean (Greece) ……………… December 10

Lufthansa Group (Germany) … December 15

(includes Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Swiss, Brussels Airlines, and Eurowings)

Air Europa (Spain) …………… December 17

Wizz Air ……………………….. December 20 (Tel Aviv-Larnaca route)

What is notably absent are any U.S. airlines. However, at the moment, plans are still progressing for Tech Air—established by high-tech companies in Israel—to begin operations in January, with three weekly flights to JFK.

ECONOMY

The credit rating agency Fitch released an update today on Israel’s credit rating profile, stating that “the ceasefire with Hezbollah may reduce pressure on Israel’s credit rating.” Last August, Fitch downgraded Israel’s credit rating from A+ to A, with a negative outlook. Compared to the other two major rating agencies, Fitch’s rating is similar to that of S&P but one level above Moody’s, which currently rates Israel at Baa1.

“A significant de-escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, potentially resulting from the 60-day ceasefire, could reduce the burden on Israel’s government spending,” the agency noted. However, Fitch emphasized that “the ceasefire in Lebanon is fragile, and the likelihood of a ceasefire in Gaza remains low.”

The statement added: “A ceasefire with Hezbollah, if maintained, would reduce fiscal risks, but developments in Gaza and Iran will continue to play a significant role in shaping Israel’s fiscal and economic trajectory. The agency believes the war in Gaza will extend into 2025, albeit at varying levels of intensity. This implies continued high expenditures on immediate military needs, disruptions to production in border regions, and impacts on tourism and construction.”

Moody’s on the other side was more cautious stating that after the ceasefire in the North the “internal political risks remain hight.”

BUSINESS

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is expanding its presence in India, inaugurating the HELA facility in Hyderabad this week. The new facility, staffed by 45 skilled technicians and 80 Indian engineers, will specialize in the maintenance and repair of radars, including energy systems, cooling systems, and IT infrastructure.

This move is part of IAI’s long-standing cooperation with India and its recent emphasis on aligning with the Indian government’s “Made in India” initiative, promoted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Eight months ago, IAI established the Indian subsidiary Aerospace Services India (ASI) as part of its collaboration with DRDO, India’s defense research and development agency (similar to Israel’s MAFAT and SIBAT).

ASI employs 50 workers, 97% of whom are Indian citizens. Based in New Delhi, the company operates branches across the subcontinent. It conducts transactions in the Indian rupee and is the only company involved in the Medium Range Surface-to-Air Missile (MRSAM) system—a cutting-edge defense system used by the Indian Army, Air Force, and Navy. The MRSAM system, jointly developed by IAI and DRDO, offers protection against a variety of aerial threats and includes a phased-array radar, a command-and-control system, mobile launchers, and interceptors with advanced radio frequency sensors.

∞––––––∞––––––∞––––––∞––––––∞––––––∞––––––∞––––––∞––––––∞––––––∞

A PIECE OF HISTORY

Islamic Terror Strikes France

The January 2015 Île-de-France attacks were a series of coordinated terrorist incidents in France, carried out by Islamist extremists over three days, resulting in 17 deaths. The violence began on January 7, 2015, when brothers Saïd and Chérif Kouachi stormed the offices of Charlie Hebdo, a satirical magazine in Paris, killing 12 people, including prominent cartoonists, journalists, and two police officers. The attackers, affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), claimed they were avenging the magazine’s controversial cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad. This attack was seen as a direct assault on freedom of expression, sparking global outrage.

On January 8, another attacker, Amedy Coulibaly, killed a policewoman in Montrouge and began planning the next phase of the coordinated assault. On January 9, Coulibaly carried out a deadly attack on the “Hypercacher” kosher supermarket in Porte de Vincennes, Paris, taking several hostages and murdering four Jewish customers. Coulibaly, who had pledged allegiance to ISIS, claimed the attack was coordinated with the Kouachi brothers and stated that he was targeting Jews as part of his extremist ideology. The timing of the attack, occurring during pre-Sabbath shopping hours, further underscored its explicitly antisemitic intent.

The siege at the kosher supermarket lasted for hours, with Coulibaly threatening to kill all the hostages if the Kouachi brothers were not allowed to escape their standoff with police. French security forces launched simultaneous operations to end both crises, killing the Kouachi brothers at a printing factory in Dammartin-en-Goële and Coulibaly at the supermarket. The violent assault on the Jewish community highlighted a rising wave of antisemitism in France and deeply traumatized the nation’s Jewish population, many of whom questioned their safety and future in the country.

The coordinated nature of the attacks revealed alarming vulnerabilities in France’s security systems and the growing threat of homegrown extremism. The attackers had been known to authorities for their radical views and previous criminal activities, yet they were able to execute a sophisticated series of assaults. The attack on the kosher supermarket, in particular, became a stark symbol of how extremists were targeting not only symbols of free expression like Charlie Hebdo but also minority communities. For France’s Jewish population, the attack reignited fears of being singled out for violence.

In the aftermath, millions of people across the world expressed solidarity with the victims, adopting the slogans “Je suis Charlie” and “Je suis Juif” to honor the dead and reject extremism. French President François Hollande declared a national day of mourning, and leaders from around the globe marched in Paris to show unity against terrorism. However, the attacks also led to debates about balancing security with civil liberties, addressing radicalization, and combating antisemitism. The events of January 2015 remain a turning point in France’s struggle with Islamist extremism and its impact on national unity and minority safety.