DAY 418 OF THE WAR: 24 Hours Without An Aerial Attack in Israel- Ceasefire Holds, IDF Destroys Hezbollah Underground Missile Factory in Last Minute Attack

Tel Aviv Diary, November 27, 2024

NEXT ZOOM BRIEFING: Sunday, Dec 1, 6 PM Israel, 4 PM GB, 11 AM EST, 8 AM PST

The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon began at 4 a.m. this morning, and so far, it is holding. After 13 months, it feels strange to finally not worry about my watch vibrating to signal that a rocket has been fired at some location in Israel. For the first time since October 7, 2023, there hasn’t been a single rocket warning today. The sense of liberation was palpable.

However, a few incidents did take place during the first day. Several Lebanese individuals ignored warnings from both the Israeli and Lebanese armies and approached Israeli soldiers in villages; some even had the audacity to venture up to the border. When Israeli soldiers fired into the air, some individuals fled, others were captured and interrogated, and a few were shot. Tonight, Israel has issued a warning to Lebanese civilians not to travel south of the Litani between 5 p.m. and 7 a.m.

Today, I participated in a Zoom briefing with US envoy Amos Hochstein, who shared some interesting insights. He opened by reflecting on the previous day, asking, “When was the last time President Biden could say, ‘I have good news from the Middle East’?” Hochstein spoke about the terms of the ceasefire, emphasizing that Israeli troops are required to stay in Lebanon for up to 60 days, at least for now. He acknowledged the challenges this presents, noting it is “a tall order for the Lebanese Army to send troops to Southern Lebanon,” and that it will take time for them to deploy.

Hochstein highlighted a major flaw in the 2006 agreement, i.e., the absence of a mechanism for its implementation. He stated clearly, “If there is a direct threat to Israel that is not addressed, Israel will take care of it on its own.” In addition, Hochstein stressed the importance of ensuring that reconstruction efforts are led by the international community, and not Iran or Hezbollah. Hochstein pointed out that another significant error following the 2006 war was that Hezbollah financed reconstruction, which helped them buy loyalty in the region.

Moreover, Hochstein made another insightful observation, describing the conflict in Lebanon as both “a war between Israel and Hezbollah, or Israel and Iran.” He subtly critiqued the policies of the incoming Trump administration, contrasting them with President Biden’s approach. Hochstein spoke about Biden’s unique connection to the Jewish people, saying, “As a Jew, I’ve never fully understood how Biden can care so deeply for the Jewish people and call himself a Zionist.” He elaborated that behind the scenes, Biden has played an instrumental role in influencing other countries’ actions toward Israel. Hochstein concluded by noting, “You can only do that for Israel when you have good standing with other countries.”

BEN-GVIR AND SMOTRICH VS. HOSTAGE FAMILIES

Today’s events in the Knesset reminded us once again of the toxic, divisive impact of appointing extreme far-right ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. In a heated exchange, Einav Zangauker, the mother of a hostage, asked Ben-Gvir about his opposition to a hostage deal. Ben-Gvir firmly declared that he would not allow the release of 1,000 terrorist prisoners, whom he characterized as posing a severe potential threat of future violence, in exchange for 101 hostages currently held by Hamas. Zangauker responded poignantly, albeit in anguish, “But right now they are raping people, and you don’t care—what sort of Jewish values do you have?”

Any agreement to release Hamas-held hostages would inevitably involve freeing numerous Palestinian terrorists—a point Ben-Gvir refuses to accept. This leaves Israel facing two bleak options: either attempt hostage rescues, an area where Israel has struggled with extremely little success in Gaza, or demand Hamas’s complete surrender, which is highly unlikely.

Meanwhile, the other far-right minister, Smotrich, has articulated a vision for Gaza’s future that raises further concerns. Smotrich suggested that within two years, 50% of Gaza’s population could be persuaded to leave, implying a long-term plan to maintain Israeli control over the territory, which precludes a deal to end the war in return for releasing the hostages.

Furthermore, Smotrich has not clarified where these people are expected to relocate. Wherever they migrate, they are likely to carry anti-Israel sentiment with them—a tragic irony, given that some on the political right-wing have historically encouraged Palestinian emigration, only to see the spread of antisemitism in other regions of the world.

AND… IN THE NORTH

As I wrote yesterday, residents of the North are afraid to return home. I don’t think people, even here in Israel, fully grasp the deep trauma caused by October 7th. Northern residents look across the border and can’t imagine returning if the Shiite residents of the nearby villages, just 200 meters away also return to their homes.

Why are the residents of the North so anxious and upset? Because after October 7th, anyone living near a border fears that what happened to the residents of Nir Oz—and especially to their children—could happen to them. This fear stems from several factors, First, most notably the Army's absence when the Gaza border communities were attacked. For those in the North, with Shiite villages even closer to their homes than Gaza’s were, the worry is that if such an event were to occur again, they would be left defenseless.

I think there’s a profound, deeper sentiment permeating throughout Israeli society today—something we didn’t feel before October 7th. We were aware that the Palestinians harbored no love for us, and many understood their reasons for anger and resentment. However, the sheer depth of their hatred revealed on October 7th was shocking. It's one thing to engage in acts of terrorism like bombings or suicide attacks, but to commit atrocities such as raping women, beheading individuals, murdering children, burning people alive, and then celebrating these acts reveals a level of virulent hatred that is nearly incomprehensible. This realization has shaken us all to the core, cutting across political lines. The violence and killings were so personal, so intimate, that it has left a uniquely deep scar on us. For parents, in particular, the thought of returning to live in a border community feels insurmountably risky. This pervasive fear complicates any prospects for political dialogue with the Palestinians—but that’s a conversation for another day.

FRANCE AND THE ICC

In other news, the French government announced today that, based on its interpretation of international law, it is not required to arrest Prime Minister Netanyahu should he visit the country. France has stated that a head of state who is not a signatory to the Rome Statute is immune from arrest. This stance appears to be a strategic decision, allowing France to continue its involvement in the diplomatic processes in Lebanon. This policy could potentially set a precedent for other nations seeking justification to preserve diplomatic relations with Israel and Netanyahu.