DAY 416 OF THE WAR: Ceasefire With Hezbollah Nears, Fears of Last-Minute Missile Barrage, Rabbi Kagan Buried in Jerusalem, Israel and Ukraine Strengthen Ties

Tel Aviv Diary, November 25, 2024

Tonight, it looks like an agreement for a ceasefire in the North has been reached. The Cabinet is scheduled for a special meeting tomorrow. Today saw a significant decrease in rocket fire. By 5 PM, only about 20 rockets had been fired, with none targeting Central Israel. However, late tonight, ten rockets were fired at Nahariya, severely injuring one person and lightly injuring another.

Key elements of the ceasefire arrangement stipulate that the Lebanese Army must fully deploy below the Litani River within two months after signing the agreement. During this period, the Israeli Army is required to withdraw from Southern Lebanon. One critical component of the agreement is the establishment of an international committee led by the United States, which will oversee compliance. This committee will be tasked with identifying any violations by Hezbollah, and should these not be rectified, Israel will retain the right to respond.

Many of the leaders of Israel’s Northern communities have come out against the forthcoming agreement, arguing that the arrangement does not correctly reflect the military gains that were achieved. In reality, the agreement's value hinges on how the first violation is handled. Israel must be prepared to risk war to enforce any violations. Another concern is that the government plans to vote on the agreement tomorrow without consulting the northern communities' leaders. There has been no effort to explain or discuss the agreement and the future plans for the North with them. This approach, which appears indifferent, is consistent with the government's previous actions, whether dealing with hostage families or refugees from the North or South, showing a reluctance or even a seeming non-willingness to demonstrate that they care.

The White House announced tonight that the parties are very close to reaching a deal, but that it’s not quite finalized yet, and cautioned that until an agreement is signed there is no agreement.

Meanwhile, the Army has issued warnings to expect a significant number of rocket attacks from Hezbollah tonight or tomorrow as a demonstration of their ongoing capabilities. Additionally, in-person schooling in the North has been canceled for tomorrow.

MURDERERS OF RABBI KAGAN APPREHENDED

The Security Services of the UAE have released the names and photos of the individuals responsible for the killing of Rabbi Kagan. It appears that they had initially fled to another country, likely Turkey.  However, somehow, by last night they were back in the UAE, under the custody of the UAE Security Services. The details of their return are unclear, but more information may emerge in the future. The UAE is expected to seek the death penalty for the killers. Rabbi Kagan was laid to rest on the Mt of Olives in Jerusalem this evening

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Netanyahu's Misinformation: A Barrier to Hostage Negotiations

Neria Krause of Channel 13 reported last night that the incoming Trump Administration had been told that most of the hostages are dead. Other sources indicated that when President Herzog congratulated Trump, he mentioned that Israeli intelligence believes 50% of the hostages are still alive, which surprised Trump. It is widely suspected that Netanyahu told Trump most were dead to dissuade him from engaging in negotiations to free the hostages—a scenario that would be a nightmare (at best) for Netanyahu. Once again, it seems the primary obstacle to the hostages' return is Netanyahu. Perhaps Trump will be able to influence Netanyahu on this issue, as other efforts have failed.

Rising Antisemitism in Canada's Previously Welcoming Streets

Reports of antisemitic demonstrations in Canada—particularly those in Toronto last weekend—are difficult to comprehend. Canada, historically known as a welcoming nation, has increasingly become a “no-go zone” for Jews over the past year. While similar occurrences have been noted around the globe, the shift in Canada is particularly disheartening.

IRANIAN ARMS SUPPLY ROUTES TO HEZBOLLAH

As a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with Hezbollah nears, the IDF has disclosed details about the Iranian supply train to Hezbollah through Syria. Below is the statement from the IDF Spokesman regarding this clandestine arms supply route:

For decades, the terror regime in Iran has extensively funded and supplied weaponry to its proxies across the Middle East, with Hezbollah being at the forefront.

In close cooperation with Hezbollah, Iran has established covert routes through Syrian territory to Lebanon. Over the years, these routes have facilitated the transfer of thousands of trucks and hundreds of aircraft carrying thousands of missiles and other weapon components.

These transfer routes are managed by Iran to arm Hezbollah, with the Syrian regime’s collaboration and tacit approval.

Senior Syrian officials play a significant role in this arms transfer effort through two primary methods: storing weapons in Syrian army warehouses before their transfer to Lebanon and granting significant logistical privileges at internal crossings in Syria, overseen by the Syrian Military Security Unit.

This operation is spearheaded by Unit 4400, Hezbollah’s armament unit. Established in 2000, Unit 4400 is responsible for smuggling weapons into Lebanon from Iran and its proxies, working to expand Hezbollah’s weapons stockpile as much as possible. Since its inception, the unit has built numerous strategic routes along the Syria-Lebanon border.

During the war and as part of Operation “Northern Arrows,” the Israeli Air Force, guided by precise intelligence from the IDF’s Intelligence Directorate, carried out extensive strikes and targeted assassinations to disrupt Unit 4400 and its various arms transfer routes.

These efforts included the elimination of Unit 4400’s commander, Mohammad Jafar Qasir, in early October in Beirut, as well as his intended successor, Ali Hassan Gharib, a few weeks later in Damascus. Several other senior commanders in the unit were also eliminated.

The arms transfer routes through Syria to Lebanon have been systematically targeted, not just in recent months but as part of a long-term campaign led by the IDF. For the first time, a series of strikes that disrupted attempts to transfer weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon can now be revealed.

These strikes, made possible by years of precise intelligence gathering, have significantly degraded Hezbollah’s ability to enhance its weapons stockpile and execute attacks against Israeli civilians.

The IDF will continue to identify and thwart any attempts by the Iranian regime to arm its proxies in the Middle East.

AirForce Debuts New Training Helicopter

Yesterday, the Air Force debuted a new training helicopter. During the unveiling ceremony, the flight school's emblem was showcased on the new aircraft.

The “Ofer” helicopter is set to replace the “Saifan” helicopter, which has been used by cadets in the initial stage of the flight course for the past 50 years. This transition is part of the broader effort to enhance the training framework of the Israeli Air Force and its flight school. The “Ofer” helicopter offers advanced flight and training capabilities, tailored to the latest technology and operational needs of today’s battlefield

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Throughout the ongoing war, the helicopter fleet has played a central role in supporting the maneuvering ground forces of the IDF. The induction of the “Ofer” represents a significant leap forward in the training of helicopter pilots, preparing them for future operational missions. It reflects the investment and recognition of the helicopter corps’ critical contribution to the strength of the IDF.

Additionally, the new helicopter is accompanied by an advanced training center, including an innovative simulator that accurately replicates real flight scenarios. This will enhance both the professional and safety standards of the training process.

By 2025, after the full integration of the new fleet, the veteran “Saifan” helicopter will complete its service at the flight school and will be placed on display at the Air Force Museum.

ISRAEL AND UKRAINE STRENGTHEN TIES

At last, a long-overdue initiative is taking shape—Israel and Ukraine are strengthening their cooperation in technology exchange. Given the similar threats both nations face from Iranian drones, this partnership is proving to be increasingly crucial. Having closely followed developments in both regions, it's clear that Israel is keen to benefit from Ukraine's substantial experience in countering Iranian drones employed by Russian forces.

Israel's ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, made a crucial point when he stated that Israel must learn from Ukraine's experience. What's particularly noteworthy is how the conflict in Ukraine has accelerated the development of military technologies that Israel now seeks to incorporate into their air defense systems.

The Ukrainian innovations are remarkable—they’ve developed AI-based acoustic detection systems that are revolutionizing the field. Take Zvook, for instance—their acoustic sensors can detect drones from kilometers away with impressive accuracy and minimal false positives. These systems are not only lightweight and cost-effective but also enable quick response times to minimize damage from drone attacks. The Ukrainians are making significant progress in developing interception drones and mobile anti-drone systems, forming what can be described as a highly adaptable defense network.