DAY 414 OF THE WAR: Israel Steps Up Attacks in Lebanon, Chabad UAE Emissary Missing, Katz Cancels Administrative Detention for Jews, ICC Fallout
Tel Aviv Diary, January 23, 2024
Despite Amos Hochstein’s visit to the region, it remains unclear how close Israel and Lebanon are to reaching an agreement. The prevailing assessment in Israel is that an agreement could be finalized within the next week. However, significant disagreements persist on key points, particularly regarding Israel’s freedom of action after a potential withdrawal.
In recent days, the Israeli military and Air Force appear to have intensified their operations to pressure Hezbollah and Lebanon. Over the past 48 hours, Israel has conducted repeated strikes on the Dahiya district and its surrounding areas. Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force launched a surprise attack on a building in central Beirut, targeting it with massive firepower in what was a clear attempt to eliminate specific individuals. As of this evening, reports indicate that one of the main targets of the operation survived
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Meanwhile, IDF ground forces have advanced further into Lebanon, confiscating large quantities of armaments, including Iranian and Soviet-made weapons, as they progress. These actions seem to be aimed at applying additional pressure on Hezbollah to agree to Israeli demands. Despite mounting Israeli military successes, any agreement reached is expected to face significant opposition in Israel. Critics from across the political spectrum, including voices on the left, argue that Israel should have demanded more fundamental changes in Lebanon.
MISSING CHABAD EMISSARY
Tonight, another major story in Israel concerns the apparent disappearance of Chabad emissary Tzvi Kogan in Dubai. Kogan has been out of contact with his family for three days, and the Israeli government has officially declared this incident a terror attack. Although Dubai is generally considered a highly controlled environment due to the UAE being a massive surveillance state, it is noteworthy that approximately 5% of its population is Iranian, and Iran can be seen from the tops of some of Dubai's tallest buildings. Reportedly, the Mossad is collaborating with UAE intelligence agencies to investigate the case. Nonetheless, there is widespread pessimism about the outcome, with a prevailing sense that Kogan may have been killed
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KATZ ELIMINATES OPTION OF ADMINISTRATIVE DETENTION FOR JEWS
Defense Minister Katz announced on Friday that Jews would no longer be held in administrative detention in the West Bank. Administrative detention allows authorities to imprison individuals for six months without trial, with the possibility of extensions. Presently, there are eight Jews and over 3,000 Palestinians detained under this policy.
Let me start by saying that I believe administrative detention is a deeply flawed practice. The Israeli legal system itself has significant shortcomings, such as the denial of bail as a means to pressure suspects or facilitate further interrogation. That said, at a time when violent acts perpetrated by some settlers toward Palestinians are escalating, removing one of the few mechanisms available to curb such violence seems ill-advised.
Compounding the issue, at a time when some international observers are accusing Israel of apartheid, publicly announcing a policy that differentiates between Jews and non-Jews in the West Bank appears all the more imprudent. Katz could have discreetly implemented this policy change by simply not approving administrative detention orders for Jews, but instead, he opted to make a public announcement for internal political reasons.
As a “thank you” to Katz a group of Jewish youth in Hebron attacked Major General Avi Bluth, the Commander of the Central Command, along with other officers last night. The attackers called Bluth a traitor, despite the fact that Bluth is religious and grew up in a West Bank settlement. Five of the attackers were arrested. Additionally, this afternoon, when the Army discovered a stolen Palestinian vehicle near Itamar in Samaria and attempted to return it, settlers assaulted the soldiers. Five settlers were arrested in this incident as well.
HAMAS' PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE CONTINUES
In a separate development, Hamas released a video this evening claiming it shows the body of a deceased Israeli hostage, allegedly killed in an Israeli airstrike. The Israeli Army has reviewed the video but has stated it cannot confirm or deny its authenticity. Viewers of the footage note it contains clear identifying marks, and the Army has reportedly been in contact with the family of the hostage. Tragically, this horrifying news has drawn renewed attention to the plight of the hostages, which has dragged on for 414 days (and counting…) without resolution. It is a heartbreaking reminder that we have yet to return these 101 individuals home.
TOP-SECRET DOCUMENTS CASE
Meanwhile, the ongoing documents case has introduced another layer of controversy. To recap, secret military intelligence documents were reportedly delivered to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office and later leaked, with details surfacing in the German media. These documents alleged that Hamas was exploiting the hostage situation primarily to undermine the Israeli government, rather than pursuing a genuine agreement. Following the killing of six hostages in Gaza, Netanyahu cited these reports to justify his inability to do more to secure their release.
On Friday, the prosecution disclosed the charges against Feldstein, an employee in Netanyahu's office, and an NCO from the intelligence corps. In response, Netanyahu issued a statement tonight, which reads:
Unfortunately, this current witch hunt is taking a heavy toll—not just on my office staff but on young individuals whose families are being destroyed, Netanyahu said.
Yesterday, an indictment was filed against Feldstein and against an IDF non-commissioned officer regarding the leak of that same Hamas document. The goal is clear: to harm me and to harm you—the citizens of Israel who support me.
Netanyahu went on to say he knows Feldstein well, and that Feldstein is a passionate Zionist and patriot and there is no chance in the world that he [Feldstein] would intentionally do anything to harm state security.
Netanyahu subsequently went on to attack the Security Services and then accused the Army for withholding intelligence from him. To put this into perspective, when the story initially broke, the Prime Minister's office claimed they were unaware of Feldstein and denied his employment there. However, now seeing a potential political benefit in attacking those accusing his close associates—and likely facing revelations of his awareness of the events—Netanyahu has adopted an offensive stance.
In response to Netanyahu’s attack, a senior Army official stated tonight that there is a well-established system for vetting intelligence and presenting it to the Prime Minister and other relevant authorities. According to the senior official, this particular report was not deemed reliable enough to be presented directly to Netanyahu as raw data.
EILAND CAUTIONS NETANYAHU
In a related matter concerning intelligence and Netanyahu, Giora Eiland, the former head of Israel’s National Security Council, expressed significant concerns about Israel’s security situation in August 2023. Eiland had requested and was granted an emergency meeting with Netanyahu. According to Eiland, at the meeting, he warned Netanyahu that conditions were ripe for a surprise attack, potentially from Gaza or Lebanon. Nevertheless, Eiland stated that Netanyahu listened but minimized the perceived threat.
CONTINUED COMBAT IN GAZA & LEBANON
As mentioned earlier, fighting has continued in both Gaza and southern Lebanon. Yesterday, an Israeli soldier was severely wounded in Gaza, and today, another was severely wounded in Lebanon. The IDF remains committed to eliminating what remains of significant Hamas commanders in Gaza.
Yesterday, the IDF Spokesman issued the following reported the following:
The IDF and Shin Bet eliminate the commander of the PIJ rocket unit.
An Israeli Air Force aircraft, guided by precise intelligence from Military Intelligence (Aman), the Shin Bet, and the Southern Command, targeted and eliminated Khaled Abu-Daqa, the commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) rocket unit, during an operation on Wednesday. The strike took place in the humanitarian zone of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza.
Abu-Daqa was a significant figure responsible for orchestrating numerous offensive terrorist activities. He managed and commanded PIJ operations that targeted Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers.
Since October 7, Abu-Daqa had been directing rocket fire at communities surrounding Gaza and overseeing operatives involved in launching rockets into Israeli territory.
Prior to the strike, extensive measures were taken to minimize the risk to civilians, including careful selection of munitions, precise intelligence, and aerial surveillance.
The IDF and Shin Bet remain committed to targeting anyone who promotes or engages in terrorism against Israeli civilians and will continue to pursue the objectives of the ongoing conflict.
IMPACT OF THE ICC ARREST ORDER
The repercussions of the ICC’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant continue to unfold. There is a concern that this could lead to arms embargoes as well as economic and scientific sanctions. Moreover, there is significant debate about whether anything could have prevented these indictments—although I am fairly certain that if the conflict had lasted only a few months, we might not have reached this point. Additionally, a major point of discussion in Israel centers on how the absence of a national commission may have contributed to the failure to prevent the arrest warrants.
Israeli experts in international law assert that the principle of self-review plays a pivotal role in mitigating the risk of international legal action, such as the issuance of arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Self-review refers to a nation’s capacity to internally investigate and evaluate the actions of its government officials, military, and other state actors in accordance with domestic and international legal standards. In Israel’s case, this principle is upheld through a robust justice system capable of independently scrutinizing decisions and actions taken during conflicts or military operations. These experts argue that had Israel adopted a more proactive and transparent approach to self-review, it might have significantly reduced the likelihood of the ICC issuing arrest warrants.
For instance, the system has investigated claims of excessive force, unlawful killings, and other allegations during past conflicts, sometimes resulting in disciplinary actions or legal proceedings. To date in this war, there has been little to no action taken even when there are videos of soldiers committing clear war crimes. While none of these crimes were serious, they were still crimes and have not been prosecuted. This lack of decisive response to alleged misconduct may have contributed to the ICC prosecutor's decision to seek arrest warrants.
Ultimately, the principle of self-review is not just a legal mechanism but a strategic imperative. By proactively addressing allegations and demonstrating accountability, Israel could have potentially preempted international interventions like those of the ICC, thus avoiding the resulting damage to its reputation and diplomatic relations. Reinforcing this principle remains critical for effectively navigating the complex interplay of law, politics, and international relations in the future.
BUSINESS
Innovid
MediaOcean, a private American company majority-owned by investment fund CVC, will acquire Innovid for $3.15 per share. This reflects a valuation of $500 million for the Israeli company. The offer represents a premium of over 100% on Innovid’s current value on Wall Street, though it is far below the $1.3 billion valuation at which it went public via a SPAC merger at the end of 2021. Innovid’s stock has surged by more than 80% in New York trading following the announcement.
Since its IPO, Innovid’s stock experienced a consistent decline, losing about 90% of its value. The primary beneficiaries of the deal are the Israeli investment company ION, which led the SPAC merger, and Innovid’s founders: Zvika Netter (CEO), Tal Chalozin, and Tsahi Zigdon. Registered as an American company, Innovid employs 470 people globally, including 100 in Israel. “This is a positive event for employees, but it reflects the realities of 2024, not the exuberance of 2021,” Netter commented in a statement.
Despite the lower valuation compared to its “unicorn” status at the time of its SPAC merger, Innovid’s outcome is significantly better than that of companies like Otonomo or Selina, which went public via SPAC and later disappeared.
Innovid was founded in 2008 and raised $100 million from investors such as Sequoia (US) and Genesis (Israel) before going public. During its SPAC merger, riding the wave of the digital advertising boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, Innovid raised $251 million. A large portion of that amount was used to acquire a British company for $160 million, including $100 million in cash.
Dazz
In a significant industry development, cybersecurity leader Wiz has acquired Israeli firm Dazz, which specializes in automated vulnerability remediation. While financial terms weren't officially disclosed, sources indicate the transaction is valued at approximately $450 million, structured primarily as cash with an equity component. This acquisition, first reported by Calcalist, represents Wiz's third strategic acquisition within the past twelve months, following its integration of Raftt and Gem Security.
The transaction's timeline proved notably efficient, according to Dazz co-founder and CEO Merav Bahat. In discussions with Calcalist, Bahat outlined a focused negotiation process that, despite a brief intermission, concluded decisively. The merger received substantial support from Dazz's existing client base, who recognized the strategic value of combining the two companies' capabilities and market reach.
The strategic rationale centers on integrating Dazz's platform with Wiz Code, Wiz's recently launched development security product. This integration addresses a critical market need by enabling teams to identify and remediate vulnerabilities during the early stages of development. Dazz's AI-driven platform, which has demonstrated considerable market traction with 500% year-over-year sales growth and the ability to reduce remediation cycles from weeks to hours, positions Wiz to enhance its market leadership in cloud security solutions. The combined entity presents a compelling value proposition for enterprises seeking comprehensive cloud security capabilities.
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A PIECE OF HISTORY
Kadima Joins Netanyahu Government
In early May 2014, the Knesset agreed to hold new elections while Netanyahu’s popularity was still high, leading him to believe that calling for elections was to his advantage. Despite some challenges, there was no reason to think that the government could not have endured. Nonetheless, Netanyahu was seemingly willing to dissolve the government while his approval ratings were high and before the potential re-election of President Obama. Then, on May 8th, 2014 Israelis awoke to the news that the largest opposition party was joining the government.
Here is what I wrote at the time:
Last night, I intended to write an update on how ridiculous it was to hold elections in Israel this September. How embarrassing it was to watch the rush to dissolve the Knesset quickly, before anything could be made on replacing the "Tal Law,” as promised. I had also wondered how Israeli leaders, especially the Prime Minister, could get away with so blatantly misleading the public. Initially, Netanyahu claimed he did not want elections. Then he called for elections and pledged to enact a new law to replace the Tal law, before the new election. Then, he expedited the closure of the Knesset before the new Tal Law could be enacted. As luck would have it, last night I was busy finishing a project and decided that I could wait to post an until the law to disband the Knesset was passed-- since nothing was going to change.
Imagine my surprise after opening my iPad in bed bright and early this morning and reading that Kadima had joined the coalition, effectively canceling the September election.
After I got over my shock, I came to two conclusions: First, that everything I was about to write about our lying politicians was true, on steroids. Their utter lack of shame is beyond any rational understanding. It is one thing to fudge the truth, or make promises that you are not going to keep. However, to listen to these politicians habitually lie, straight out, is a bit hard to take.
Even the most veteran political observers were shocked by the extent of this latest round of prevarications. Second, on the other hand, delaying the elections is not a bad thing. In that there was no need to have elections now, and there was no serious opponent to Netanyahu at this point … In a year from now, who knows.
However, the problem is two fold: We now have a coalition government made up of over 90 members, which in no way reflects the will of the people. Maybe 55% of the country (in broad strokes) supports the current government, but NOT 80% (as reflected in the Knesset seats held by the new coalition). Worse, this political move has only served to increase the already high level of cynicism people have towards politics and politicians.
Shaul Mofaz who publicly called Bibi a liar, and worse—just weeks ago–entered Netanyahu's government for only one reason, i.e., Kadima was going to be destroyed in the next election. I think the number of 10 Knesset seats for Kadima [as poll numbers show] was an optimistic guess. Were there to be elections this coming fall, I would not have been surprised if Kadima disappeared all together. So with this move, Mofaz ensured that his Knesset members kept their jobs for an extra year.
Why Netanyahu entered into this agreement with Kadima remains an enigma. It might just be his cautious nature to delay an election, in which, however good his chances look, might contain surprises. There might be another motive, but that remains unclear.
There is a slight chance we might see a very real change the laws dealing with the drafting of Haredim and changing our system of government will actually take place, since that is what the coalition deal with Kadima guaranteed. I do not actually believe that will come to pass, but one can hope.
One question asked repeatedly today was whether this sudden move to virtually eliminate opposition to the current government has anything to do with a possible attack on Iran. The simple answer seems to be--not directly. However, today's events probably increased the chance of an Israeli attack on Iran by some measure.
One final point. I could not help but be disgusted by the pictures of Natan Eshel, deeply engaged in the negotiations to bring about this deal. Eshel had been forced to resign from his position as the Director of Prime Minister's Bureau due to his “inappropriate actions toward a female employee”. At the time, many in Israel were surprised that Netanyahu exhibited his anger at the whistle blowers, and not at Eshel. Obviously, a little misbehavior on his part was not enough to move him from the center of power.