DAY 409 OF THE WAR: Missile Strikes Tel Aviv Metro Area Wounding Five, One Killed and Forty Wounded in Shefaram, Coordinated Attack Against Attorney General, Defense Budget—Part II

Tel Aviv Diary, November 18, 2024

I had just finished tonight’s update, when I heard the sound of the air raid siren. We hurried down the stairs to the bomb shelter as quickly as possible. By the time we reached the lobby, it was crowded with people from the popular hamburger restaurant on the corner of our block. Moments after we reached the shelter, we could hear explosions.

It was just confirmed that a single ballistic missile was launched from Lebanon. Although the missile was intercepted at high altitude over the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, it was not completely destroyed. A substantial portion of the missile landed in Ramat Gan, igniting fires and causing substantial damage to homes, businesses, an electric line, and a parked bus. Glass and debris from nearby skyscrapers rained down, adding to the chaos. Five people were injured, one seriously.

Immediately afterwards, a drone was shot down near Haifa.

It was hoped that the situation in the North was drawing to a close. However, as of this evening, it remains uncertain. The US State Department announced tonight that progress toward a ceasefire had been made. There are reports that Amos Hochstein, the American negotiator, is returning to the region. While earlier reports suggested Hochstein would arrive on Wednesday, as of tonight, his exact arrival time is unclear. Furthermore, even if Hochstein does arrive, an agreement is not guaranteed. A critical issue remains whether Lebanon’s “conditional yes" will poses a significant obstacle to reaching a final agreement.

Earlier today, the situation in the North escalated as Lebanon launched a deadly attack. Over 80 rockets were fired into the Northern and Central Galilee. A rocket directly struck a residence in Shfaram, tragically killing Saffaa Awad, a 50-year-old teacher, who was in her apartment’s safe room when part of the building collapsed. Additionally, forty others were injured in the attack.

The IDF remains active in Southern Lebanon. Below is a report from Brigade 226 detailing their operations conducted from an underground facility:

During an operation by the brigade’s forces, they conducted scans of urban, dense, and mountainous areas where the enemy had concealed dozens of surface and underground hideouts, multi-barrel rocket launchers, mortars, stockpiles of rockets, and extensive military equipment. This arsenal was used by the enemy to carry out hundreds of terrorist plots against Israel in the past year.

In one of the searches, the soldiers located and destroyed an underground terror infrastructure stretching tens of meters within the area. The site contained living quarters, food supplies, a kitchen, and a significant quantity of weapons.

We’re in a hideout position with a mortar,” said Major (Res.) Daniel, Company Commander in Brigade 266. “Here we can see an 81mm mortar along with a large number of items—each crate contains four shells, hidden under a terrain fold. There’s also an arms depot with at least 56 more items. Combined, this is a hideout for an operative who can stay here and operate. We found combat equipment and numerous operational maps detailing all the Israeli settlements, ranges, and everything prepared for action.

IMPENDING NETANYAHU TRIAL, COALITION MEMBERS ATTACK A.G.

With a date set by the Supreme Court for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s testimony, Israeli Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara faced a coordinated verbal attack. Baharav-Miara first appeared at a Knesset committee meeting intended to address violence in the Arab sector. Strangely, both the Police Commissioner and Minister of National Security were absent. During the meeting, members of the Likud party launched a targeted attack on Baharav-Miara, blaming her for various issues, although they stopped short of accusing her of involvement in the historic sinking of the Altalena.

Later, Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, publicly accused her of trying to frame him. Baharav-Miara responded by issuing a statement denying these allegations, explicitly saying that Ben-Gvir’s claim was invented. Shortly thereafter, Finance Minister Smotritch delivered a speech suggesting that the Attorney General should resign if she had any self-respect.

Meanwhile, the extremist right-wing Noam party escalated the situation by displaying a large billboard on the Ayalon highway, asserting that “Baharav-Miara’s actions could (Heaven forbid) lead to the assassination of Netanyahu.”

To provide some context, the Attorney General has been a persistent thorn in the government’s side, due to her insistence on strict adherence to the law. Theoretically, the AG could dismiss the cases against Netanyahu. It is important to note that Netanyahu is legally prohibited from participating in any decisions to dismiss the AG. Consequently, efforts to remove Baharav-Miara appear to be part of a coordinated campaign aimed at pressuring her to resign.

At the same time, there are indications that Netanyahu is considering replacing the Head of Shabak (General Security Services) with someone he trusts. It is worth noting that the Shabak has played a role in the investigation and arrest of one of Netanyahu’s confidants in connection with the classified document case.

Today, a special meeting was convened to discuss the hostage situation. However, when Netanyahu spoke, instead of focusing on the hostages, he diverted much of his focus from the hostages to air grievances about the investigation into his office, resorting to “Whataboutism” regarding other unrelated leaks. His speech was notably self-centered, as he took the opportunity to assert his defiance against the United States and to criticize President Biden, whom he labeled as "evil". Netanyahu claimed personal responsibility for various military achievements, including operations in Iran and the Beeper attack—operations that Israel had not previously acknowledged. It was one of the most self-aggrandizing speeches I have ever heard, filled with a continuous stream of self-praise and claims of personal accomplishments.

THE DEFENSE BUDGET— PART II

Yesterday morning, Sharon Kidon conducted a fascinating interview on Ynet's daily podcast, focusing on the Defense budget with Brigadier General (Res.) Re’em Aminoach, former head of the IDF budget department. I shared the initial portion of the interview yesterday. Here is the second of the three segments—

Sharon Kidon with Brigadier General (Res.) Re’em Aminoach:

The estimated total cost of this war exceeds 300 billion shekels, and when considering all damages and expenses, it easily surpasses half a trillion shekels. The 2024-2025 budget, yet to be finalized and expected to be approved in January, is intended to address these financial needs.

Let’s differentiate between the defense budget and other expenses.

Currently, the proposed defense budget allocates about 100 billion shekels net, approximately 120 billion gross. However, my estimation is that it will require closer to 160–170 billion shekels. There’s almost no chance it will stay within the proposed limits. By the end of the year, they will need to allocate additional funds, likely exceeding 140–150 billion shekels, due to the complexity of the situation.

Breaking the expenditure ceiling, as seen recently, has significant implications. For the first time in Israel’s history, during 2024, the expenditure ceiling law was violated. This damages Israel’s credibility with lenders and credit rating agencies. Unlike deviations in other areas, breaching the expenditure ceiling reflects intentional budgetary decisions rather than external factors, severely undermining trust.

If the 2025 budget is inadequate for actual needs, there will likely be two outcomes: adjustments before final approval to add at least 15–20 billion shekels, or cuts in other areas, creating additional chaos. The financial burden of the war will stretch over years. For instance, rehabilitation costs for affected families could reach 7 billion shekels annually from 2024 to 2026 and gradually decrease over decades as needs decline.