DAY 401 OF THE WAR: Hostage Deal Stalled, Government Indifference a Major Cause; While Prospects of an Agreement in the North Remain Unclear

Tel Aviv Diary, November 10, 2024

Today is the 401st day of the war, marking 400 days since our citizens were kidnapped into Gaza. For 401 days, those who are still alive have been living in darkness, near starvation, with no idea if they will ever return home.

Last night, as we have done most weeks, our family attended the weekly vigil at Hostage Square to support the families of the hostages. The atmosphere, always somber, felt particularly heart-wrenching this time. Earlier in the war, there was a palpable sense of hope—a belief that a deal might be in the works, optimism that progress was being made, and the trust that tireless efforts were being made on behalf the hostages’ behalf. However, by last night, it had become evident that such optimism and trust were misplaced. There has been no advancement in negotiations, and it appears that the current Israeli government is prepared to let the hostages perish. Adding to the despair, last night, Qatar announced it was withdrawing as a mediator in the hostage negotiations, declaring it would only return if both sides showed a genuine desire for resolution.

Former Defense Minister Gallant has openly asserted that a feasible deal exists, but the political leadership is opposed to the proposed agreement. That deal involves ending the war in exchange for releasing all of the hostages. However, the government shows no interest in pursuing this option, indicating their complete lack of intention to conclude the war. If such an inclination existed, a plan might already be in place.

Ending the war appears to be a step that Netanyahu is unable to take for two reasons. First, any agreement involving the release of the hostages would likely necessitate freeing Palestinian prisoners—a move that Ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich repeatedly insist would lead them to withdraw from the government, potentially collapsing the coalition. Equally significant is Netanyahu’s scheduled upcoming testimony in his corruption trial, an event he desperately wants to avoid.

Over time, the Prime Minister has made so many conflicting statements that managing his testimony without severe consequences seems nearly impossible. Within the convoluted Israeli legal framework, Netanyahu’s testimony could span months. Although originally set for September, the Prime Minister’s testimony has been postponed to early December. It is anticipated that his lawyers will seek another delay, contending that a Prime Minister engaged in war cannot afford to “waste time” testifying.

As long as the war continues, Netanyahu may succeed in postponing the trial further. Due to these factors, there appears to be no Israeli strategy in place to end the war. Furthermore, with President-elect Trump emerging on the horizon and President Biden now a lame duck, the one leader who appeared genuinely committed to freeing the hostages is leaving the world stage. The families of the hostages continue their efforts to free their loved ones, yet it’s challenging to overcome the mounting pessimism.

GAZA

Meanwhile, in Gaza, Israel’s actions have evolved into what is essentially a war of attrition. Israeli troops are stationed in three specific areas across Gaza. The first is the Netzarim corridor, which has gradually widened as adjacent buildings have been demolished. Soldiers positioned along the route are relatively relaxed, with control maintained by two reserve battalions. To ensure robust cellular connectivity, Cellcom has installed a cell tower in the area. This corridor bisects Gaza, effectively splitting it into two parts.

The second area of ongoing combat is Jabalya, where the fighting has now persisted for over six weeks. The prolonged duration of this third round of conflict in Jabalya can reasonably be attributed to a shift in objectives. Unlike the last two times the IDF entered, which aimed simply to establish operational control, the current goal appears to be the identification and neutralization or capture of every Hamas operative in the area. The challenge this strategy faces is that, by the time the IDF finishes in Jabalya, Hamas will have successfully regrouped in other parts of Gaza.  Today in Northern Gaza two tank officers were seriously wounded.

The third significant area of IDF activity is along the Philadelphia Corridor and the outskirts of Rafah, where Israeli forces maintain control in the area, and conduct sporadic raids. We are engaged in a long-term war of attrition, seemingly without a definite conclusion or a path to an “absolute victory”.

IN THE NORTH

The situation in the North remains mostly static. As I previously wrote, Israel has successfully completed the capture and removal of weapons and emplacements from all frontline villages, many of which have been destroyed. The Army is prepared to advance into villages deeper within Lebanon, but has not yet received orders to do so. There is a general expectation that an agreement may soon be reached.

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, who is probably the only cabinet member whom Netanyahu truly trusts, made a clandestine visit to Russia last week. Reports suggest that Israel wants to involve Russia in any potential settlement in Lebanon. I am skeptical of this; it seems more plausible that Dermer's visit was to discuss Iran. Nonetheless, an agreement in Lebanon appears to be within reach at this time.

Interestingly, the leader of the Democrats in Israel, retired General Yair Golan, has expressed opposition to reaching an agreement with Lebanon prior to securing a settlement in Gaza. Golan tweeted today:

Hezbollah, which is much stronger than Hamas, has not been completely eliminated, yet the Israeli government is trying to reach an agreement in the North.

That same government refuses to reach a hostage release deal, which would include an arrangement in the south, claiming that Hamas has not been fully eliminated.

This is illogical, unprofessional, and unnecessarily endangers the lives of the hostages and our soldiers. Let every Israeli mother know that the Israeli government prioritizes its political survival over the security of her children.

The IDF estimates that 80% of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal, capable of ranges up to 40 kilometers, has been destroyed. At the outset of the conflict, Hezbollah was estimated to possess 5,000 medium-range rockets, of which fewer than 1,000 now remain. Additionally, Hezbollah began the war with over 44,000 short-range rockets, a number that has reduced to fewer than 10,000. Security officials also report that at the start of the war, Hezbollah possessed hundreds of precision missiles, with now fewer than 100 remaining, including several coastal defense missiles.

Despite this seemingly positive assessment, Hezbollah has persistently launched successive barrages at targets in northern Israel. Over the past two days, residents from Haifa northward have repeatedly been compelled to seek shelter. Today, a barrage caused significant damage to a dining room in Tel Chai, and three agricultural workers were wounded near Nahariya.

On Saturday, a false alert of a drone targeting the Tel Aviv area prompted hundreds of thousands to rush to their secure locations in the middle of the afternoon.

This afternoon, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that he has spoken to President-Elect Donald Trump three times since the election, and they are in agreement regarding the threat posed by Iran.

In the course of the day the Air Force intercepted four drones arriving from the East before they crossed into Israel.

The US attacked the Houthis in Yemen in three strikes overnight between Saturday and Sunday.

SCANDALS CONTINUE IN NETANYAHU’S OFFICE

In the latest development regarding scandals in the Prime Minister’s office, reports today allege Tzachi Braverman, the head of Netanyahu’s staff, is accused of blackmailing an IDF officer to gain access and possibly alter records documenting events in the Prime Minister’s office on the night of the 6th and the day of the 7th of October. Additionally, in the first reported scandal involving the misuse or theft of IDF intelligence documents, police and security services have requested an extension of the prime suspect's detention by another five days.

400 DAYS

Veteran Israeli journalist, Ben Caspit reposted:

The Writer: A Reservist in the Air Force, 400 Days.

A Teacher and Educator in a Previous Life:

Operation Iron Swords, 9/11/24. 400 Days.

400 days that I’ve been a mother in the reserves.

400 days with no routine at home.

400 days I haven’t been at work.

400 days, out of which 300, Asaf has also been in the reserves.

And soon, another round.

400 days that the grandparents have been raising our children.

And the family supports us.

And friends. What would we do without friends?

400 days that people have stayed in our house to take care of the dogs.

And the house. And the garden.

400 days in which we planted vegetables in between,

because maybe it would feel normal for just a moment.

400 days that the school staff and kindergarten team have been an anchor for our children. Embracing them. Seeing them.

400 days of existential anxiety, because Asaf is in Gaza.

And I’m evacuating wounded from there. Every day. Sometimes all day.

400 days of emotional eating. And guilt.

400 days of birthdays that were missed. Celebrated early or late,

just so we could celebrate with the kids.

It’s a grandmother sending a cake to kindergarten. A white shirt.

An apple cut with honey.

It’s anger, regressions, compassion, and despair.

400 days of an emotional whirlwind.

400 days of transitions. Between emergencies, strikes, rescues, assisting forces, laundry, cooking, orders from Wolt, and stepping on Lego at night – arriving home late after a week and just wanting to hold the kids who’ve been asleep for a while.

400 days where even when there’s time at home,

there’s a bag packed in the trunk.

400 days of feeling like the biggest sucker,

yet at the same time feeling the greatest pride imaginable.

400 days surrounded by people who are the salt of the earth.

I wish the entire country were like them.

400 days of madness.

400 days of togetherness and loneliness.

400 days of Iron Swords.

400 days.

1,163 murdered.

782 fallen.

5,299 wounded.

101 hostages still in captivity.

One government.

Zero investigative committees.

EL AL COMES TO THE RESCUE IN AMSTERDAM

Yesterday marked the successful evacuation of the final group of 2,000 Israelis from Amsterdam. EL Al was the main carrier to take up this operation. Here is the official statement from El Al regarding the evacuation mission:

During the weekend, we contributed to helping the Israeli public and the state, and we will continue to act so whenever needed.

We operated a total of 8 flights from Amsterdam to Tel Aviv—6 flights during Friday, and two more flights on Saturday, when all the rescue flights were operated in full-body planes. We flew a total of 2,000 passengers back to Israel. It is important for us to note that the rescue flights were fully funded by El Al, and were free of cost to the passengers. Operating the flights would cost millions of shekels.

In addition, we responded to more than 10,000 inquiries received in our Customer Service Center. We are proud to be an anchor for Israelis even in difficult times.

Interestingly, given their substantial profits, amplified by criticism over high prices, El Al chose to fund this rescue initiative entirely at its own expense.

One of the most disturbing elements of the Amsterdam incident is the persistent claim from left-leaning websites and individuals claiming that the Israelis provoked the attacks and that it was not a coordinated assault—a claim that is patently false. Even the “mainstream” media seem to be buying into this utterly baseless narrative.

Eylon Levy, who has created a full-fledged citizen spokesman organization (no longer a one-man operation), issued the following statement on the events:

Hamas supporters in Amsterdam planned an attack on Israelis in Amsterdam. This was a premeditated assault. It did not get "out of control." It was not sparked by any perceived offense. It was a planned pogrom.

The Israeli government sent warnings to Dutch authorities that went unheeded. Hamas supporters in Amsterdam filmed themselves attacking Israelis, asking passersby if they were Jewish, and demanding to see IDs. Sound familiar?

The October 7 Massacre inspired millions of Hamas sympathizers living in Western countries to try to do the same thing to local Jews and visiting Israelis, and on the anniversary of the infamous Kristallnacht pogrom of 1938, history is repeating itself.

We warned: Chanting “Globalize the intifada” is a call for attacking Jews everywhere.

We warned: The campaign, supported by many European elites, accusing Israel of “genocide” puts all Jews at risk.

We warned: “The West is next.” It's not next. It's now.

The October 7 War is an EIGHT front war. It's not just the seven fronts around us. The fate of Jews worldwide is linked to our ability to defend ourselves here in Israel. We are fighting for our lives. If we lose the October 7 War with Hamas still in power in Gaza, with the 101 hostages still in Gaza, with Hezbollah still in a position to attack us whenever it wants the level of enthusiasm for mass violence against Jews will soar.

Jews in Israel will defend themselves — and Jews around the world must exercise extreme caution and be prepared to defend themselves, too.

We are a global Jewish family and we will look out for each other.

This is how an ABC News producer responded:

FACT CHECKING THE U.N.

The UN released a ridiculous report claiming that 70% of the fatalities in Gaza were women and children, a contention that has been widely criticized as absurd. In response, Mark Zlochin, a statistician know and respected for his analysis of such events, posted the following:

It looks like it’s time for another installment in our regular segment, “How to Lie with Statistics about Fatalities in Gaza,” because a new “analysis” from @UNHumanRights has just dropped and all the mass media outlets are ecstatic.

Let's start with the headline (I take BBC as an example, but their framing is pretty typical):

"Nearly 70% of Gaza war dead are women and children, UN says”

You may ask yourself how this could be possible, given that even the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health (MoH) has stopped making this outrageous claim, and their current estimate is that about 55% of fatalities are women and children.

So what's going on here? Well, first of all, if we keep reading, it turns out that the 70% figure does not refer to all fatalities, but only to 8,119 deaths "verified" by the UN's Human Rights Office.

Why would UN want to look at just a small subsample—8k out of the 43k claimed fatalities—if the MoH reports are supposedly reliable, as the common narrative goes?

Excellent question—and I'll leave it to the reader to make an educated guess as to UN's motivation to do something like that. But let's get back to this 8k-sized sample. Supposedly, it contains “killings verified by OHCHR”, and here the things become really interesting.

This is what @UNHumanRights themselves say about their “verification methodology”:

That a large proportion of the fatalities verified by OHCHR were killed in residential buildings or similar housing is also partly explained by OHCHR’s verification methodology, which requires at least three independent sources, and the challenges in collecting and verifying information of killings in other circumstances.

In other words, their “methodology” makes it much more likely to leave out fatalities that were not killed “in residential buildings or similar housing” and/or those that could not be confirmed by at least three independent sources. You know, like those that were killed in face-to-face combat with IDF, for example.

It also makes their analysis heavily biased towards the relatively rare mass-casualties events that are much more likely to be witnessed by several independent witnesses and leaves out many of the precision strikes with low or no collateral damage. As a result, according to their “data”, only 12% of those “verified fatalities” were killed in incidents with at most 4 fatalities, while 64%—in incident with at least 10 fatalities.

I mean, who could have guessed that if your “verification” mechanism makes you focus on highly visible mass-casualties events in residential buildings, then your “analysis” will show that most of the deaths you looked at happened in mass-casualties events in residential buildings, right?

And before we wrap up, here is another “interesting” quote from the report:

OHCHR monitoring indicates that the high number of fatalities per attack was due to the IDF’s use of weapons with wide area effects in densely-populated areas, although some of the fatalities may have been the result of errant projectiles from PAGs dropping short.

In other words, their “verification” didn't even establish whether the deaths were caused by IDF's attacks or by misfired rockets from Palestinian armed groups (PAGs).

In any other conflict this level of “verification” would have caused anyone involved in this to be fired on the spot. But when Israel is one of the belligerent parties, even the most basic professional standards are thrown out the window.

A WORTHWHILE READ …

An interesting article in the Atlantic by Palestinian Samer Sinijlawi, who suggests a potential path forward for peace. While I agree with much of the points Sinijlawi raises, but I believe the fear and anger on both sides are too intense to allow progress at this time. However, it's worth reading for a more optimistic perspective.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/12/israel-palestine-conflict-resolution-future/680389/

BUSINESS

Israeli cybersecurity startup *Upwind* is reportedly raising $100 million in Series-B funding at a valuation of $850-900 million, according to *TechCrunch*. The round includes investors Craft Ventures, Greylock, Cyberstarts, Leaders Fund, and athlete-led funds from Omri Casspi and Steph Curry. Founded in 2022 by former *Spot.io* executives (which sold to *NetApp* for $450M), *Upwind* specializes in runtime protection for cloud-based applications. The company, which previously raised $80 million at a $300 million valuation, now employs 160 people across Israel, the U.S., and Iceland. The substantial funding and valuation reflect both the cybersecurity industry's current strength and investors' preference for experienced founders with successful exits.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Bibi vs. Obama

President Obama continued to advocate for progress toward a two-state solution. In early November 2009, he met with Netanyahu in Washington, where he urged a complete halt to construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Netanyahu responded that Jerusalem was non-negotiable, but agreed to secure a 10-month construction freeze. Subsequently, on November 25, 2009, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his intention to halt new residential construction in West Bank settlements for 10 months, aiming to reinvigorate the stalled Middle East peace talks.

As has often been the case, a top Palestinian official responded that the plan was inadequate, and the United States, which had sought a complete cessation of settlement building, offered a mixed response. Although the Obama administration commended Netanyahu’s decision, it leveraged the much-anticipated announcement to intensify pressure on him concerning the terms of future negotiations with the Palestinians aimed at establishing an independent state.

Israel’s security cabinet approved the freeze, which was limited to the West Bank and excluded Jerusalem. The freeze only pertained to new residential construction, allowing ongoing projects—including nearly 3,000 housing units—and public facilities such as schools and community centers to proceed unaffected.

At a news conference in Jerusalem shortly after the security cabinet’s vote, Netanyahu described Israel's decision to freeze construction as a "difficult" and "painful" step. described Israel's decision to freeze construction as a “difficult” and “painful” step. He expressed hope that the Palestinians and the Arab world would “seize this opportunity” to advance peace efforts.

Unfortunately, it took the Palestinians nine months to respond. In the meantime, the U.S. continued to pressure Israel over building in Jerusalem. Vice President Biden’s visit to Israel in early March was warm and cordial, except for a controversial moment. During Biden’s visit, the Ministry of Interior announced the approval of 1,300 building units in a Charedi community beyond the green line in Jerusalem. According to reports, Prime Minister Netanyahu was just as surprised as everyone else by this move from the Shas Minister of Interior Eli Yishai, which sparked a minor diplomatic crisis.

Two weeks later, Netanyahu met again with Obama at the White House. Their discussion centered on construction in Jerusalem and the ongoing Iranian threat. This meeting did not go well.

I noted the following in my Tel Aviv Diary update on the day of the meeting:

It’s very clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu has seriously misjudged President Obama and the state of American politics. His failure to understand the U.S. is surprising to many. Netanyahu is often seen as an Israeli politician who understands the United States, having spent many years living there, with some even speculating that he once considered moving there permanently. Yet, he has completely misread the current situation. The reasons for this, however, are not difficult to see. Netanyahu has always been more closely aligned with Republicans, specifically with Neo-Conservatives. If you listened to any of them in recent weeks, you would think that the Obama presidency was essentially over. Unfortunately, Netanyahu arrived in Washington a day after Obama’s greatest triumph, at a time that clearly marked a transition in his presidency.

In the first year of his presidency, Obama reached out and tried to work in a bi-partisan manner. However, when Senator Scott Brown won his upset victory in Massachusetts, it became evident that Obama’s strategy was not working. In response, Obama adopted a more assertive, uncompromising approach to health care reform—and it worked. Prime Minister Netanyahu expected to meet a diminished President. Instead, he encountered a reinvigorated leader, one who was intent on getting his way.

The exact points of contention between Obama and Netanyahu are unclear, but it seems the argument boils down to this: the U.S. administration is telling Netanyahu that he can’t have it both ways. Either Israel and the U.S. are strategic allies, in which case allies make concessions for one another, or they are not. If Israel wants American support, it must also be willing to reciprocate. What the U.S. needs from Israel is two-fold: no provocative actions in Jerusalem, and a commitment to make whatever concessions are necessary to achieve peace.

The Obama administration is not under the illusion that if Israel were simply to stop settlement activity, peace would magically follow. However, it believes that it is beneficial for both the United States and Israel if Israel consistently appears to be the party pushing for peace. The impression is that Netanyahu is unwilling to play that role.

Additionally, the U.S. believes that whatever the final status of Jerusalem will be, it remains the most contentious issue in the dispute, and any “provocations” related to Jerusalem can inflame passions more than anything else. The Obama administration is undoubtedly aware of ongoing efforts by certain right-wing groups to settle Jews in Arab areas of East Jerusalem—an action that is certainly not designed to ease tensions.