DAY 397 OF THE WAR: The Firing of Defense Minister Gallant: The Day After; Trump Wins Presidential Election: What That Might Mean for Israel; Hezbollah Missile Lands Near Ben Gurion Airport

Tel Aviv Diary, November 6, 2024

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NOTE: Tomorrow, I will be attending a wedding in Negev. As a result, the next Tel Aviv Diary will probably be released during the day on Friday.

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TERMINATION OF DEFENSE MINISTER GALLANT— WHY NOW?

Today has been an exceedingly long day, beginning unexpectedly last night with the announcement of Defense Minister Gallant’s termination. As I wrote last night, while everyone anticipated that Netanyahu might eventually dismiss Gallant, the actual timing of his firing came as a total shock. However, in hindsight it perhaps shouldn’t have been. Currently, Netanyahu's office is entangled in two significant criminal investigations of events that have taken place during the war, which are likely to involve him directly, in one way or another. Netanyahu has always been adept at shifting media narratives, and he effectively shifted the focus this time as well. The media quickly moved away from recent scandals to concentrate on the implications of Gallant's dismissal and the resulting protests.

Additionally, the timing of the firing was strategically chosen to coincide with Election Day in the United States. Israeli media had planned a special night of election coverage, including segments broadcast directly from the U.S. with key reporters on location. However, instead, for the early part of the night, media focus redirected their coverage to report developments unfolding in Israel from New York.

Another factor in the timing of Gallant’s termination concerns Netanyahu’s inability to pass the “Daycare Subsidies Law,” due to opposition within his government—even within his own party. The Daycare Subsidies Law was designed to serve as a bandage to temporarily provide funding to Yeshiva students whose subsidies were cut off by the Supreme Court (because there is currently no law exempting them from military service). In the absence of a military exemption law, the court ruled that those who did not serve were ineligible for government financial aid.

Setting aside considerations of social equality and despite the military's desperate need for more recruits, Gallant refused to back down on drafting ultra-Orthodox men. This impasse led Netanyahu to dismiss him, opting to appease the ultra-Orthodox factions by removing Gallant from his position.

With Gallant out of the way, Netanyahu aims to push forward a new draft law to exempt the ultra-Orthodox from military service, thereby gaining some leeway with his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners. It must be noted that the overwhelming majority of Israelis, across all non-ultra-Orthodox sectors fervently believe that “the burden” of defending the country must be shared more equitably. Given that Netanyahu is more focused on surviving until the next election rather than winning it, he appears willing to take actions that are deeply unpopular, even among his own base—not to mention with the rest of country, most whom believe he should resign.

A sense of resignation has settled over many people one day after the dismissal, which won’t officially take effect until 7:59 PM tomorrow—48 hours after Gallant received his termination letter. There's a pervasive feeling that little can be done. While the leaders of the opposition parties held a joint press conference today, their realistic options are limited. Now that Gideon Sa’ar is part of the coalition, the government holds a sufficient majority, rendering the possibility of early elections virtually non-existent—and everyone knows it. The likelihood that demonstrations will sway the government's stance is also slim. While protesting offers a sense of engagement and a way for people to feel active, it is unlikely to result in significant change.

One of the hardest parts of this excruciating time is walking through what has become known as Hostage Square, knowing that the concerted efforts to pressure the government have ultimately been in vain. Gallant publicly reiterated what he has long stated privately: there is a viable agreement to be reached—the very deal proposed by Netanyahu—which would necessitate a withdrawal from Gaza. Yet, it’s evident that this government has no intention of following through on that course.

2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

This morning, after catching a few hours of sleep, I got up to follow the election results. It quickly became clear that it had not been Kamala Harris’s night, soon after, it was evident that Trump was the victor. As a trained political scientist who authors and updates a book on American Presidential Elections every four years, I am still grappling to fully understand the implications of this election—not only what it means for America and the world, but also what it reveals about the electorate.

Perhaps over the coming weeks, I will prepare and send a special off-topic edition for you, my subscribers, once I have had more time to reflect on the results. In the meantime, the response here in Israel to Trump’s victory has been largely positive. However, among those with a deeper understanding of American politics, there is concern over the uncertainty Trump brings and about the many isolationist tendencies within his circle. We will undoubtedly learn more over time. One surprising detail to remember is Trump’s unexpected win of the Muslim vote.

NETANYAHU CALLS TRUMP

This afternoon, Prime Minister Netanyahu promptly reached out to President Trump, and they engaged in a twenty-minute conversation. During his acceptance speech, Trump spoke about his intention to end wars, while Netanyahu hopes Trump will green light continued military actions, particularly in Gaza. It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out.

HEZBOLLAH MISSLES ON TEL AVIV

Shortly after we finished watching the election returns this morning,  my phone began to light up with notifications about rockets striking nearby areas; I could hear sirens echoing in the distance. I had a feeling it wouldn't be long before the rockets reached us, and indeed, within a minute, our notification arrived and the sirens began to blare. By the time we headed downstairs to the shelter, we could hear interceptor fire. We spent about ten minutes in the shelter, where we met some new employees from the volunteer non-profit headquartered in our building.

Reports indicated that Hezbollah had launched ten ballistic missiles at the Tel Aviv metro area, marking the most substantial barrage from Lebanon since the ground war there began. One missile broke through and landed quite close to Ben Gurion Airport, while debris from intercepted rockets fell in Ra’anana and Petah Tikva, damaging vehicles.

Later in the afternoon, as I was heading home from i24 News and just about to ride a scooter out of Jaffa, my phone lit up with a missile alert for that general area. I paused to ensure I wasn’t in immediate danger. It turned out Hezbollah had fired a single missile, triggering alerts throughout central Israel.

ROCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH

A severe barrage of rockets struck the North. A particularly intense strike hit Moshav Avivim, causing significant damage and injuring two people. This evening, the body of 18-year old Sivan Sadeh, a local resident was found near Kfar Masaryk. The young man was killed in one of today’s rocket assaults.

Today, Israel launched attacks today in both Northern Lebanon and the Dachia district of Beirut, following warnings issued to residents to evacuate the area.

NEW PUBLIC OPINON POLL

An interesting set of polls was released tonight by Israel Channel 13