DAY 380 OF THE WAR: Continuous Rocket Fire on the North, Battalion Commander Killed in Gaza Fighting, Israel, US Intelligence Leak, IDF Attacks Hezbollah Financial Targets

Tel Aviv Diary, October 20, 2024

In a normal year, I would typically suspend publication during this week. Sukkot is usually a very quiet period, as many Israelis take vacation, and there are just three full workdays. However, that’s certainly not the case this week, in the midst of the ongoing war.

IN THE NORTH

Today was another day of heavy fire in the North, with the Haifa area facing multiple rocket barrages. By this afternoon, close to 200 rockets been fired at the North. Some of these attacks involved only one or two rockets, which the Iron Dome defense system typically intercepted with ease. Nevertheless, each barrage forced tens of thousands to seek refuge in bomb shelters, often for periods of 20 minutes.

Over the past month, there has been a significant increase in the number of rockets fired beyond the five-kilometer boundary. It is noteworthy that the communities within this five-kilometer radius have been evacuated.

LEBANON

Israel continues attacks on both the Dahiya district in Beirut and other targets across Lebanon

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Here is the statement issued by the IDF Spokesperson regarding the Army’s current operations in Lebanon:

IDF forces continue their focused operations in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure and operatives. Over the past 24 hours, Israeli Air Force fighter jets, directed by the Northern Command, attacked dozens of terrorist targets, including the launcher from which dozens of rockets were fired at the western Galilee earlier today.

During the last 24 hours, forces from Division 98 eliminated terrorists and located and destroyed significant weapons caches, including grenades, AK-47 rifles, magazines, combat equipment, and more. Additionally, the forces destroyed several rocket launchers that were prepared to be fired at Israel. During the operation, the forces identified a group of armed terrorists posing a threat, and in a swift response, aircraft attacked the group from the air.

Tonight, the IDF Spokesman announced that the Army will issue warnings to residents of various buildings in Beirut and other locations that serve as financial hubs for Hezbollah, including banks and other economic resources. Soon after the IAF began bombing various Hamas banks and other institutions.

THAAD NOW OPERATIONAL

Today, reports confirmed that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system, which was deployed to Israel by the United States military, including over a hundred soldiers to operate it, has become fully operational.

GAZA

Four days have passed since the elimination of Sinwar, and so far, there has been no noticeable impact. The offers to release hostages in exchange for a “get out of Gaza” card or the $100,000 reward offered by the founder of SodaStream remain unclaimed. Meanwhile, heavy fighting continued today in Gaza. Reports indicate that an increasing number of Gazans are fleeing Jabalya—with approximately 5,000 people having left over the past two days from a total population of 300,000 in the area.

It is worth noting that this is the third time the IDF has entered Jabalya. An entire division has been engaged in combat there for more than two weeks. However, each time we previously withdrew, Hamas quickly reoccupied and reorganized within the area. As a result, the Army is now encountering greater difficulties than in previous operations. This evening, it was reported that an IED explosion killed Colonel Ehsan Daxa (41) after he exited his tank. The blast also critically injured another high-ranking commander. Colonel Daxa, Commander of Tank Brigade 162 and a resident of Daliyat al-Karmel, was the highest-ranking Israeli officer to be killed since October 7th.

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Concurrently, discussions are underway on addressing humanitarian issues in Gaza. One proposal under consideration involves employing private American contractors, consisting of former military personnel, to establish humanitarian zones and distribute food and medicine to Gazans who have no affiliations with Hamas.

U.S. INTELLIGENCE LEAK

A recent purported leak of Pentagon documents, detailing Israeli preparations for a potential strike on Iran, has raised concerns in both the United States and Israel. The documents, which were shared by a pro-Iran Telegram account, allegedly depict U.S. observations of actions taken by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16 in readiness for a possible attack. Although news outlets have not verified the documents nor officially addressed by U.S. authorities, CNN has reported that an investigation into the leak of this highly sensitive information is underway. Both U.S. and Israeli officials have voiced their concerns, with a senior Israeli official taking the leak seriously and a U.S. official stating that, despite the concerns, it would not impact the contingency plans for a potential attack on Iran.

The leaked files allegedly show visual intelligence from the US Department of Defense’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), including details of Israeli Air Force exercises involving air-launched ballistic missiles, fighter jets, UAVs, and refueling tankers. The documents also suggest that the IAF has managed significant missile operations since early October. There are three potential explanations for this leak: it could have been the act of a low-level individual opting to leak the information, a deliberate move by someone within the government to signal Israel or the result of hackers breaching U.S. systems.

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AT NETANYAHU’S CAESAREA RESIDENCE

Today, the head of the Tax Authority, responsible for overseeing compensation, and the head of Netanyahu's office convened at Netanyahu’s residence. Without a doubt, the meeting was held to discuss the compensation Netanyahu is entitled to receive for yesterday’s drone attack on his home.

HOSTAGES
Today, Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet traveled to Egypt to meet with the newly appointed head of Egypt's Intelligence Services. This meeting primarily served as an initial opportunity to build rapport, they also explored ways to resume negotiations concerning the hostages.

A poll conducted today reveals: 52% of the population supports negotiating a deal for the hostages and ending the war, whereas 41% advocate for continuing the conflict. Notably, among Likud voters, 78% favor continuing the war, with only 17% supporting a deal to end it.

INITIAL WARNING

Suleiman Maswadeh of Kan (operated by the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation) reported tonight that at 2:58 AM on October 7th, 2023, the Shin Bet issued an emergency alert warning of an imminent attack by Hamas. The warning was disseminated to all relevant military and police units at that time.

Maswadeh added:

Senior Police officers who were on duty on October 7th told Kan: ‘For such a serious warning, you should have picked up the phones and not been satisfied with a report. We were called for less than that in the past, and we stepped up.

Until the government creates an official State Commission of Inquiry, the press will continue to report additional pieces of information that come to light.

POLITICS

The latest public opinion poll, conducted after the killing of Sinwar, indicates that Netanyahu's political standing has improved.

BUSINESS

Aerodrome’s stock soars by 56% after the company won the largest tender in its history, securing a deal to supply UAVs and related products worth 137 million shekels to a government client. Aerodrome, managed by Roy Degani, will deliver the products over the next year. According to the company’s estimates, the first deliveries are expected in the first quarter of 2025, pending purchase order expenditures from the client.

Aerodrome notes that, according to the agreement, the client has the option to extend the contract for an additional 12 months at the prices set in the tender and for a similar scope. However, the client is not obligated to utilize the full financial scope of the tender. The company also added that the prices paid will be linked to the Consumer Price Index and the dollar exchange rate.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Second Lebanon War — Part 2

Following the capture of the Israeli soldiers and the subsequent deaths of four additional soldiers, the discussion intensified regarding how Israel should respond. This urgency was compounded by the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit just two weeks earlier, underscoring the need for a decisive reaction. The Israeli military proposed several targets, including Lebanon’s electrical infrastructure and the international airport. Another potential target was Hezbollah’s medium-range missiles.

Defense Minister Amir Peretz, concerned about the implications of striking civilian sites, advocated for targeting the missile installations. Ultimately, Peretz authorized a airstrike on the airport but not on the power stations. The hope and rationale behind targeting the airport was to potentially thwart Hezbollah's ability to smuggle the captured soldiers out of the country.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who understood that Israel needed to respond strongly, but opposed any attack on civilian infrastructure, as the U.S. still had some hope for the Lebanese government. This left the option of striking Hezbollah’s medium-range missiles. The Israeli Air Force warned that such an attack could result in the deaths of several hundred civilians. The plan for an airstrike on Hezbollah’s Fajr missiles was presented to the government.

There was a discussion about the likelihood that an attack on these missiles would provoke Hezbollah into firing their short-range rockets at targets across northern Israel. While those living close to the border had access to bomb shelters and could likely withstand an attack for a week or two, there was concern that places like Haifa, which did not have enough bomb shelters, could also come under attack. The Air Force admitted that it did not have the capability to stop all short-range rockets.

Despite fear of the potential consequences, the government decided to proceed with the attack on the Fajr rockets. However, there was no discussion about what would happen next. The Air Force claimed it could quickly neutralize all the medium-range missiles and, once that was achieved, Hezbollah would be willing to negotiate an end to the conflict.

There was no consideration of what would happen if Hezbollah refused to end the fighting or if they did not agree to return the captured soldiers. As was not unusual in Israeli decision-making at the time, alternative options were not thoroughly explored, including the possibility of waiting until reserve troops could be mobilized and trained for a broader operation.

The strike on the Fajr missiles, called “Operation Specific Weight”, was an impressive success. In the early hours of July 13, the Israeli Air Force attacked and destroyed 59 stationary rocket launchers. The attack lasted just 34 minutes and came as a complete surprise to Hezbollah, who had believed that Israel did not know the locations of their rockets. Israel successfully wiped out two-thirds of the rockets that posed a threat to areas south of Haifa.

Hezbollah’s response was swift. The next morning, they fired 125 Katyusha rockets at targets in Northern Galilee. Two people were killed: a woman in Nahariya and a man in Safed. Sixty-nine others were wounded. At this point, the war could have potentially ended, but despite calls from within the government and military to formulate an exit plan, Olmert and Chief of Staff Dan Halutz were not ready to halt the conflict.

Today’s Zoom Briefing