DAY 375 OF THE WAR: Terror Attack Kills Policeman; US THADD Deployed; US Warns Israel Regarding Food Shortage Levels in Gaza; Deri Expounds on War, Miracles, and Ultra-Orthodox Draft

Tel Aviv Diary, October 15, 2024

NOTE: There will be no TEL AVIV DIARY POST tomorrow night, October 16th, due to the Sukkot holiday. Depending on what news develops, a new Diary entry may appear on October 17th.

ALSO, please JOIN ME on Sunday, October 20th, for the next bi-weekly Zoom briefing:

6 PM Israel time • 4 PM GB •  11AM EDT • 8 AM PDT

∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞

As I wrote recently, every day brings its own share of sad, disheartening news. Today, a terrorist attack occurred along Highway 4, on the main north-south route, near Yavneh in the South. A terrorist emerged from the sand dunes armed with a pistol. He spotted a police car stopped on the side of the road, approached the vehicle, and shot the officer seated inside. Although critically wounded, the officer managed to report the incident before losing consciousness.

The terrorist then opened fire on passing vehicles, injuring three other Israelis. The rampage ended when a passing truck driver, an armed civilian, intervened, ultimately confronting and fatally shooting the terrorist. The terrorist, originally from Gaza, had been residing legally in the West Bank since 2021.

The wounded policeman, Adir Kadosh, 34, from Tel Aviv, succumbed to his injuries while en route to the hospital.

Additionally, it was revealed today that the bomb which detonated in Tel Aviv, killing only the bomber last august, was part of a broader conspiracy. The Shin Bet Security Services and the police arrested an additional eight people and seized two additional bombs. This terrorist operation was orchestrated by Hamas's branch in Turkey.

ON THE WAR FRONTS: GAZA & LEBANON

Combat persists in both Lebanon and Gaza. The Air Force continued its strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, although Beirut has not been targeted since last Thursday. The Army advanced into the mountainous area of Har Dov, with the Alpine Unit spearheading this operation.

Additionally, the IDF disclosed today that, several days ago, fighter jets successfully targeted and eliminated Khader Al-Abd Bahja, the commander of the northern Litani sector in Hezbollah’s air unit, in the Nabatiya area. The sector under Bahja’s command was responsible for carrying out operations involving unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including reconnaissance and explosive devices, targeting the Israeli home front and IDF forces.

In a speech delivered today, Naim Qassem, the deputy of the late Hassan Nasrallah, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Concurrently, Qassem emphasized that developments in Lebanon are tied to the situation in Gaza. Qassem vowed that Israel would face consequences for its actions in Lebanon and Gaza

.

This evening, the Air Force reported that it had intercepted a drone approaching Israel from the east, as well as another drone near the Kinneret that had been launched from Lebanon.

US THAAD SYSTEM ARRIVES IN ISRAEL

Overnight, the American THAAD system was delivered to Israel from the United States, one of only seven such systems in the US arsenal. Israeli media have referenced reports from the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post, indicating that Israel has committed to refrain from targeting nuclear or oil sites. In response, the Prime Minister's Office issued a statement in the early hours, acknowledging the seriousness of American concerns but affirming that Israel will act according to its own national interests.

A report in the Financial Times suggested that both Israel and the US might be experiencing a shortage of missile interceptors, which could be one of the reasons for the deployment of the THAAD system. I also believe this shortage may also account for the delay in any potential strike on Iran. While I do not have specific details on the production rate of our Arrow missiles, I am confident that we are manufacturing more interceptors each day.

BLINKEN AND AUSTIN’S LETTER TO GALLANT AND DERMER

This afternoon, another significant development was the disclosure of a letter sent by Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin to Defense Minister Gallant and Ron Dermer. The letter cautioned that unless more aid is allowed into Gaza within the next month, the US may be compelled to suspend arms transfers. Although the letter was initially private, Israel chose to make it public.

The impetus for the letter stems from pressure by some Congress members, who months ago, called for the cessation of American aid to Israel, arguing that it contravened U.S. law which prohibits supplying arms to countries that obstruct humanitarian aid. In response, Israel assured the U.S. through a letter that it would not hinder aid deliveries.

However, Israel’s re-entry into Jabalya in September, while not a complete adherence to the so-called “Generals' Plan" to withhold aid from the North, appears to have disrupted aid distribution— a development that has largely been overlooked. This disruption has certainly reignited discussions around the issue of aid.

I believe the letter represented an attempt by the US to strictly adhere to the “letter of the law,” (Leahy Act) by cautioning Israel against implementing the “Generals’ Plan,” while addressing the overall adequacy of aid provided. The issue is not that Israel has completely halted aid. Rather, there is a lack of personnel on the other side of the border to receive the aid.

Today, 150 trucks entered Gaza, which is only about half of what Gaza needs. Meanwhile, 500 trucks are queued to cross the border. On one side, Israel contends that this bottleneck is not its responsibility, while the U.S. argues that the lack of a means of distributing the aid is Israel’s problem, invoking the well-known adage from a former U.S. Secretary of Defense: "You broke it, you have to fix it.” Like everything else, without a clear strategy, all that remains is trouble.

AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN CONTINUES TO TALK TOUGH

In a radio interview this morning, former Defense Minister and leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, Avigdor Lieberman asserted that Israel needs to strike Iran so hard that no one will ever dare attack us again. Lieberman went on to say that that if such a forceful response could guarantee no challenges for the next 70 years, then it should be pursued. I'm curious what he’s smoking…because I’d like some too! However, realistically, such rhetoric is quite dangerous. It's unrealistic to believe that any action could provide deterrence for 70 years. Personally, I would be content with 15 years of peace.

BEN-GVIR SPEAKS OUT REGARDING HOSTAGES

In an interview today, National Security Minister Ben-Gvir stated that he had blocked what he called “a dangerous hostage deal,” confirming that he forced Netanyahu to back out of an agreement that was about to be made. Ben-Gvir’s objection to the proposal was the stipulated release of Palestinian terrorists from prison. This means that there can be no ceasefire/hostage release deal, since any significant agreement will include the release of Palestinian prisoners— unless Netanyahu is willing to forego support from Ben-Gvir and possibly Smotrich

.

ARYEH DERI AND THE DRAFT OF YOUNG HAREDI MEN

Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri gave a rare interview yesterday that sparked a minor storm. During the interview, Deri said the following:

These days, we are beginning to understand the magnitude of the miracles and wonders that God has done for us. When we stand in these days and reflect, after this difficult and long year, we are beginning to understand the magnitude of the miracles and wonders that God has done for us. If at first we had faith that everything is for the best, today we are starting to understand that as well.

Today we see what the Iranians built under the guise of their plan to destroy Israel, a plan they worked very hard on and built over many years with unimaginable investments—billions. They thought they would carry it out in the near future, in full coordination with all the terror organizations, God save us.

In the end, [Yahya] Sinwar decided on his own to launch the attack without coordination. I won’t delve into the considerations that led him to do so. He was convinced that others would immediately join him in any case, and thank God, that didn’t happen.

We are currently seeing what’s been exposed on the Lebanese border and beginning to get a clearer picture of what they had planned, Deri continued. The Radwan Force was positioned along the entire border, equipped and trained. If they had carried out the plan and broken through, how could we have stopped them? We saw what Hamas did with much fewer means and capabilities. They would have surged forward to Kiryat Shmona, Metula, Shlomi, and from there to the entire northern region, as they call it, to conquer the Galilee.

As we stand at the beginning of the year, during the holiday season, we must know how to give thanks and praise for these miracles. There is no doubt that we have taken a hard and painful blow, a terrible blow. We have walked for many long months with a feeling of divine concealment, of great humiliation, with the sense that Israeli blood is cheap. Indeed, it was a very harsh blow, but we must also recognize the light and the divine providence within the concealment, and appreciate the magnitude of the miracle.

We must know how to give thanks and praise for the miracles. We are still in the midst of the war. These days, especially in Lebanon, and also in Gaza, there is still much to be done, and we have many more challenges ahead.

First and foremost, we must bring our hostages back, our brothers and sisters who have been in captivity for an entire year. It’s incomprehensible—they’ve been held in tunnels for a full year, under harsh, unimaginable conditions. Their families have no day or night, just pain and worry. It’s terrifying. We must pray for them without cease and show our mutual responsibility toward them.

Deri clarified: We will, of course, support any action that leads to the release of the hostages. Everyone knows the halachic ruling regarding deals for the release of hostages, and these are the instructions we have received. Our brothers and sisters have been in captivity for over a year – it’s incomprehensible.

There are now many opportunities opening up, and we must ensure that nothing moves forward in any arena without linking it to the release of the hostages, he added. A new window of opportunity has opened in the last month, given all the events, to bring them home, and I won’t elaborate beyond that. We are committed to this with a level of commitment like no other—this is the mitzvah of redeeming captives, the greatest mitzvah. We must pray with all our strength that in this matter too, God will show us great miracles, and we will soon see the hostages return home.

Then, Deri went on to make comments that angered the overwhelming majority of Israelis:

We also faced many challenges this year regarding the Torah world and the yeshiva students. We believe, as believers, that the holy Torah is our shield and protector, that it is the defense of the Jewish people, our merit for existence, and it’s what gives us strength.

Regarding Torah study, Deri said: “It is our merit for existence.”

On the draft, Deri said: “Of course, we are doing everything, even now, to find a legal and agreed-upon solution, even though it’s not simple during this time,” he explained. “I am very hopeful that we have made progress on this, and I hope that in the coming weeks we will be able to resolve it, so that the yeshiva students can sit and learn without interruption.”

Deri argued: “We must understand, from a budgetary perspective, every day of combat costs us more than the entire annual budget for the Torah world. This is just to give us a sense of proportion, and we believe that every day of Torah study prevents more days of combat.”

Deri, who has been a kingmaker in Israeli politics for decades, has stirred controversy with his latest remarks. Initially, he described the events October 7th as a miracle. How so? Deri claimed that in the absence of a miracle, Israel could have faced even graver circumstances. However, for all those (thousands of Israelis) who lost loved ones so far in this war, labeling such a colossal tragedy as a miracle is inconceivable— not to mention, the overall anxiety of the country as a whole, which has endured what is arguably the most difficult year in our state’s history. While true believers might accept this interpretation of these events as miraculous, the average Israeli finds it excruciatingly difficult to see this year in such a light.

However, what ultimately caused an outcry were Deri’s comments regarding the draft of Haredim. The primary concern is his apparent confidence in securing a draft bill that Shas will endorse. Yet, even more problematic, was Deri’s assertion he will see to it that “yeshiva students can sit and learn without interruption.” Deri’s underlying message being that while the rest of society is expected to send their children to fight, the Haredi yeshiva students should are not even to be disturbed by draft notices. (For those unfamiliar, Shas, is an ultra-Orthodox political party primarily composed of Sephardic Jews. (Historically, Shas was regarded as more moderate compared to other ultra-Orthodox parties, though this is less the case today).

HEAD OF THE SHLOMI COUNCIL SPEAKS OUT

Shlomi is a town located a few Kilometers to the east of the Mediterranean on the Lebanese border. In response to revelations about the extent of Hezbollah’s massive arsenals, terror tunnels, and plans to conquer northern Israel, Gabi Naaman, head of the Shlomi Council, wrote to his residents:

Dear Residents,

I would like to inform you that numerous findings have been discovered along the Lebanese border, right across from the town of Shlomi, including a large tunnel filled with equipment and ammunition, dug into the ground. It is very close to the border, beyond the mountain in Lebanese territory, but very close to the Israeli border and overlooks the town of Shlomi.

We were all right!

The complaints about the noises, digging, and drilling—we were all right! We passed it on to the IDF for investigation, and all the responses were the same: there is no evidence of tunnels!

There is no danger to the residents of Shlomi!

Unfortunately, they were all wrong! And it turns out we were all right!

I am horrified by the thought of what could have happened if, God forbid, Hezbollah had attacked us on 10/7/23. Everyone is asking the question: what would have happened?

To think that there were, and still are, former generals and senior public figures, some of whom held security roles in the past, who pushed for some sort of arrangement with Lebanon without the IDF entering and scanning the area, when the horrifying reality is right beyond the border!

I never wanted to say the words: ‘I told you so!’

But indeed, I did say it, I warned and alerted from day one, through every possible channel. I spoke of the obligation to defeat Hezbollah, disarm them, and push them back beyond the Litani River, and this can only be achieved by sending IDF forces into Lebanon.

Today, we all understand the magnitude of the miracle that happened for the residents of the northern border and the residents of Shlomi.

Despite everything that has been revealed and uncovered by the IDF forces, these same officials continue to ask the IDF to stop the war. They are literally asking to perpetuate the failure! I have no doubt—there must be a demand for a commission of inquiry into the failure of turning a blind eye and abandoning the residents of the North!”

AIR HAIFA TAKES TO THE AIR

The new Israeli low-cost airline, Air Haifa, took off Monday on its inaugural flight from Tel Aviv to Larnaca. Surprisingly, when the plane returned from Larnaca, passengers found it nearly empty. An empty aircraft during what is typically the peak season in the aviation industry is highly unusual. This is particularly striking given the recent security escalation that has caused widespread flight cancellations, funneling demand to a few airlines still operating in Israel.

It’s worth noting that less than a week ago, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) lifted its recommendation against flying over Israeli airspace. Despite the removal of the recommendation, on Monday, three airlines, Air France, Neos, and Aegean Airlines, announced that they would extend the suspension of their flights to Israel. They join Wizz Air and LOT, which announced flight suspensions in the last two days. Today, Wizz Air extended its cancellation period until at least January.

The tickets for Air Haifa’s first return flight from Larnaca, some of which were sold for as low as $60, according to passengers, made the flight especially appealing for Israelis stranded abroad due to the extensive wave of cancellations.

ECONOMY

There was both good news and bad news regarding the economy today. The good news is that prices actually decreased by 0.2% in September, marking the first drop in 2024. However, the bad news is that the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.3% in the last quarter. This is below previous projections and, when adjusted for population growth, essentially reflects negative growth.

BUSINESS

The startup company Ubeya, which developed a platform for finding gig jobs, has raised $10 million. The American fund EGP led the funding round, marking its first investment in an Israeli company. Other investors in this round include the venture capital funds MoreVC and Magma, which led the company’s previous funding rounds. Until now, Ubeya had raised only $5 million in two initial rounds.

The company was founded in 2017 by Omri Dekalo, who serves as CEO, and Yuval Weinbaum, the CTO. It currently employs 25 workers and is in the process of recruiting additional staff. Ubeya’s platform connects employers looking for temporary or shift workers with young people who are interested in working without committing to a single employer. For example, today the workforce management systems of stadiums across Europe, including Wembley, and the stadiums of Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Ajax, and others, are managed on Ubeya’s platform. Over the past year, Ubeya has managed workforces for major events like the UEFA Champions League Final, the Wimbledon tennis tournament, and concerts featuring artists such as Taylor Swift and the Foo Fighters.

∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞

A PIECE OF HISTORY

The Abduction of Gilad Shalit

On June 25, 2006, a group of terrorists from Hamas and the “Committee for National Uprising” infiltrated Israel through a tunnel near Kibbutz Kerem Shalom, supported by covering fire, including anti-tank missiles and mortar fire from Gaza. A Merkava tank positioned along the border was unexpectedly attacked. Lieutenant Hanan Barak and Sergeant Pavel Slotzker were killed instantly. Another crew member was wounded but managed to stay inside the tank. Corporal Gilad Shalit was injured and subsequently captured by the attackers, who then took him into the Gaza Strip.

Initially, there was confusion and by the time it was confirmed that Shalit had been abducted, it was too late to pursue the attackers. In response, Israel initiated a military campaign called “Operation Summer Rains”. This operation mainly consisted of airstrikes, but also included a ground assault on the Beit Hanoun area.

Consequently, 450 Palestinians were killed, including 100 civilians, and one Israeli soldier died from friendly fire. Gilad Shalit remained captive for five years, during which a public campaign orchestrated by his parents ultimately persuaded Prime Minister Netanyahu to enter negotiations for his release. In 2011, Israel consented to a prisoner exchange, freeing 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, including Yahya Sinwar, in exchange for Shalit's release.