DAY 353 OF THE WAR: Israel Destroys Thousands of Rockets, Hezbollah Launches 200 Rockets to Additional Areas Across Israel, Palestinian Public Opinion on War Sours.

Tel Aviv Diary, September 22, 2024

IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari made special announcements on TV three times today. When I first heard there would be a special announcement just before 8 AM, my immediate concern was that it might involve an expansion of the area under threat of rocket attacks. However, that was not the case. Instead, the Army Spokesman urged residents of Southern Lebanon to evacuate homes that stored rockets, missiles, and other armaments as the IDF was about to target those locations

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When Hagari addressed the public again at 3 PM, I was apprehensive that he might announce changes to the regions expected to face rocket fire. Yet, it was another warning, this time directed at residents further north in Lebanon, where Hezbollah stores its medium-range rockets. Finally, at 8:45 PM, the Army spokesman returned to summarize the day’s events.

Beyond the televised warnings, the Israeli military sent text messages to Lebanese residents living near weapon stockpiles. Additionally, Israeli intelligence commandeered a Lebanese radio station to broadcast warnings to the local population. These warnings proved effective, prompting tens of thousands of Lebanese to flee their homes, heading primarily to Beirut.

Schools in Beirut are now being repurposed to accommodate the influx of new refugees. Despite the majority of civilians heeding Israel’s warnings, the Lebanese Health Ministry reported tonight that 492 people were killed in Lebanon today. However, it remains unclear how many of the dead were Hezbollah militants versus civilians.

Hezbollah managed to launch several significant rocket barrages beyond the confrontation line. The initial barrage targeted the central and southern parts of the Galilee, reaching as far south as the Golani Junction. The second barrage struck the area around Yokneam and the Carmel region, although Haifa was not affected. In both instances, approximately 30 rockets were fired, and the Iron Dome system successfully intercepted a number of them, significantly reducing the impact of the attacks.

The situation remains tense, with both sides engaged in intense military activity. While Hezbollah's rocket attacks have been limited, the risk of escalation persists. In response, the IDF is implementing extensive measures to mitigate the threat while attempting to minimize all civilian casualties.

Around 5 PM, a barrage of rockets targeted the Haifa area, which the Iron Dome system successfully intercepted once again. At 5:15 PM, an unusual attack in the West Bank, with about 10 rockets fired. The intended target remains unclear, as one rocket landed in a Palestinian village, and others fell in open fields across the West Bank. Subsequently, another barrage struck the area around Haifa. In total, 200 rockets were launched at Israel throughout the day. Despite the large volume of rockets, the Iron Dome effectively mitigated the damage.

After 6 PM, Israeli forces conducted strikes in Beirut, reportedly targeting Ali Karki, one of the few remaining leaders of Hezbollah's military wing. The success of this mission remains uncertain at this time.

Currently, it appears that the Israeli government has resolved to intensify its efforts, potentially aiming to dismantle Hezbollah’s military capabilities entirely. Although there are concerns that the Air Force alone may not suffice to achieve this objective, it has performed admirably so far. Starting with the targeted elimination of Faud Shukr at the end of July, through the beeper explosions and last Friday’s assassination of numerous Hezbollah military leaders, Israel’s air campaign has been extensive and seemingly effective. Current estimates today suggest that up to 50% of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities have been neutralized, with the Israeli Air Force having flown 650 sorties and hitting 1,100 targets with 1,200 munitions. Each target contained large numbers of rockets and launchers. If these figures are accurate, the Air Force’s achievements represent a phenomenal success. However, reports of this level of success could also an exaggeration.

Nasrallah’s recent speech, in which he acknowledged that Israel’s initial actions had severely weakened Hezbollah, suggests there may be potential to shift the strategic balance. Tonight, many in Israel are likely feeling a mix of cautious optimism—hopeful that the Air Force might be turning the tide—alongside concern that the situation could still deteriorate.

GAZA

One of the rumors circulating is the possibility that Sinwar was killed in one of our attacks on Gaza. There is no definitive proof of his death, but there has been no recent evidence that Sinwar is still alive. Israel went as far as to bring remains back from Gaza, believed to possibly be Sinwar’s body, to conduct DNA testing. The results confirmed that it was not him. Consequently, the question of whether he is alive remains unresolved.

A TROUBLING STATISTIC

One of the more disturbing statistics released yesterday indicated that 50,000 Israelis left the country in 2023, marking a 50% increase from the previous year. The majority of these emigrants were young people. While emigration is not new for Israelis, the significant rise during a year of judicial reform is particularly troubling.

NEW SURVEY BY the Palestinian Center for Policy & Survey Research (PCPSR)

An interesting chart reveals a continued decline of support for the actions on October 7th, particularly in Gaza.

Support for Hamas' decision to launch the October the 7th offensive drops in the West Bank and Gaza Strip:

For the fourth time since October 7, we asked respondents from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip what they thought of Hamas' decision to launch the October 7 attack, whether it was correct or incorrect: 54%, compared to 67% three months ago, in June 2024, and 71% six months ago, in March 2024, said it was the right decision. The decrease in this percentage came from the West Bank and Gaza Strip, where it stands today at 64% in the West Bank, a decrease of nine percentage points, and 39% in the Gaza Strip, compared to 57% three months ago, a decrease of 18 percentage points. Six months ago, 71% of Gazans said that Hamas' decision was “correct."