DAY 346 OF THE WAR: Defense Minister Gallant Likely to Be Replaced Amid War, Antisemitism on College Campuses, Economic Growth Slower Than Previously Reported

Tel Aviv Diary, September 16, 2024

I will be flying home to Israel tonight. Depending on how developments unfold and my capacity, there might not be a Diary entry tomorrow.

Today, all of Israel is abuzz with discussions about the likely imminent dismissal of Defense Minister Gallant. Over the past week, the Prime Minister has been crafting a narrative against Gallant by leaking claims that Netanyahu desires a more comprehensive war in the North and that Gallant is purportedly standing in his way. Like many of Netanyahu's assertions, this claim is unfounded, but it presents a compelling narrative. The real issue stems from Gallant's refusal to agree to a deal with the ultra-Orthodox that would exempt their youth from military service.

The ultra-Orthodox have stated unequivocally that they will bring down the government, unless they receive an acceptable agreement. Consequently, Netanyahu views dismissing Gallant as a strategic move. However, Gallant will likely have to resign eventually, as he holds ministerial accountability for the events of October 7th and the subsequent failures that occurred during the attack.

The absurdity of replacing an experienced Defense Minister in the middle of a war cannot be overstated. Netanyahu is expected to appoint former Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar, who previously left the Likud due to his disagreements with Netanyahu. At the time of this writing, it remains unclear whether this deal will go through. The notion of appointing Sa'ar, who lacks significant military or administrative experience, to manage Israel's foremost defense institution appears highly dubious.

As political correspondent Ron Ben Yishai remarked on television tonight,

Every time there's a plan to rescue hostages or execute dangerous missions, I, Ron Ben Yishai, would not feel comfortable with someone without military experience making decisions.

Former IDF Chief of Staff, MK Gadi Eizenkot echoed this sentiment, stating,

In a post Gideon Sa'ar wrote in the past regarding the talks about firing Gallant, he wrote that it was madness and that the Prime Minister was unfit and endangering the security of the State of Israel. I recommend he go back and read what he wrote.

Currently, reports indicate that Sara Netanyahu is one of the individuals delaying the agreement, a notion that may seem utterly absurd but reflects the prevailing circumstances. Additionally, there is concern within the U.S. administration, (should Gallant be replaced), as they view Gallant as their counterpart and main contact in the Israeli government. Last night, Gallant informed U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Israel might be compelled to undertake military action in the North. Gallant also met with U.S. representative Amos Hochstein, reiterating the likelihood of the need for military intervention. Hochstein responded that a large-scale military operation would not provide a means for the residents of the North to return home.

SA’AR’S POLITICAL ROULETTE

Sa’ar has repeatedly asserted that he would not be part of Netanyahu’s cabinet again. However, recent polls show that the Sa’ar party has failed to meet the minimum threshold required to enter into the Knesset. Sa’ar attempted to forge alliances with Avigdor Lieberman or with Naftali Bennett, but neither thought Sa'ar would provide them with an electoral boost. As a result, Sa’ar felt compelled to reconsider his options. As a career politician, he could not accept the idea of leaving politics.

Now, according to reports on the proposed deal with Netanyahu, Sa’ar and three others from his party will receive guaranteed places on the Likud list for the upcoming Knesset election (the date of which is still to be determined). All the top members of Sa’ar’s list were formerly members of Likud. It should be noted that Sa’ar opposed reaching a deal to secure the release of the hostages and believes in the importance of an immediate attack on the North.

Tonight, after nearly an entire year, the Security Cabinet is convening to add the safe return of residents to the North as one of the war's official objectives. While there is increasing discussion about taking action in the North, it remains highly unlikely to occur immediately.

ANTISEMITISM ON COLLEGE CAMPUSES

The ADL has released a report on campus antisemitism. It’s worth reading the whole report, however, here is a summary to provide you with an overview.

Since the Hamas terror attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, campus life across U.S. colleges and universities has been substantially altered. Jewish students, faculty and staff in particular, have faced a surge in both anti-Israel and antisemitic incidents. Beginning on October 7 itself, some anti-Israel groups on campus set the tone for the rest of the school year, issuing statements of praise for the attack and calling for Israel and Zionism to be eradicated. Such sentiment had profoundly adverse effects on campus Jewish communities.