DAY 337 OF THE WAR: Optimism of Chance of Hostage Deal Fades, West Bank Clashes, Rocket Fire From Lebanon
Tel Aviv Diary, September 7, 2024
DAY 337 OF THE WAR
The mood in Israel remains grim, as any previous optimism regarding a potential hostage deal dissipated over the past week. This shift in sentiment is largely attributed to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statements concerning the Philadelphi corridor, a policy stance that most Israelis do not support. (Refer to the chart below for more details.)
However, another aspect of the issue lies in the growing awareness that Hamas may not agree to any plan that does not end the war. The majority of Israelis are ready to make significant concessions to bring some hostages back alive, yet the government is unable to do so.
Disregarding all the strategic implications of withdrawing from Gaza—which I believe are manageable, though open to debate—the reality is stark. The fact is that the current government cannot abandon its declared war goal of dismantling Hamas; a goal that has eluded them after 11 months of combat. Admitting defeat now would be to concede failure. The problem is that our country did not psychologically acknowledge the defeat on October 8th. Our leadership should have resigned immediately, paving the way for new leaders to take charge of rebuilding. Instead, all the leaders who failed us on October 7th remain in power, desperately seeking to achieve redemption.
So now, Jews who have suffered more than any Jew since the Holocaust will remain captive while Israel pursues strategic objectives that are unknown to most of us. Following the attack, we were fully justified to initiate the war as we did— nearly all our actions over the course of this lengthy war can be defended. However, as the well known Israeli adage asserts—“sometimes it’s better to be wise than correct”. Now, 11 months in, with no clear strategy for moving forward and no plan on how to end the war (beyond a hopeful, lucky strike on Yahya Sinwar), it is time to end the war and bring our hostages home, accept the consequences, replace our military and civilian leadership, and begin to rebuild our country.
The Americans remain optimistic about the prospects of reaching an agreement, with the latest expression of hope coming from CIA Chief Burns at a European security conference. I hope he is correct and that a deal is possible, although this contradicts conventional wisdom.
WEST BANK
On Friday, Israeli troops pulled out of Jenin. The Army Spokesman issued the following report on its operation over the last ten days:
In ten days of operational activity in the Jenin area: The commander of Hamas’ terrorist organization in the region was eliminated, terrorists and terror infrastructures were attacked from the air, and dozens of explosives were destroyed.
In the last week and a half, IDF forces, Shin Bet, and Border Police have been operating in the Jenin area within the Menashe Brigade. So far, 14 terrorists have been killed in Jenin, over 30 suspects have been arrested, around 30 explosives planted on roads have been destroyed, and four airstrikes have been carried out in the area. Additionally, many terror infrastructures were destroyed, including an underground weapons cache found beneath a mosque and an explosive-making lab.
The forces have located and confiscated numerous weapons and additional armaments. During the operation, the commander of Hamas’ terrorist organization in Jenin, Wasem Hazem, was eliminated. He directed shooting and explosive attacks in the Jenin area and was responsible for advancing terrorist activities in Judea and Samaria.
The forces will continue the operation until its objectives are achieved.
On Friday, Israeli troops appear to have accidentally shot an American protester in the West Bank. Additionally, in another tragic incident, a 14-year-old was shot in her home by a stray bullet. It is alleged that Israeli troops fired the shot, although this has not been confirmed.
IN THE NORTH
After a particularly combative week in the North, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi HaLevi inspected the troops on the Northern border. During his visit, HaLevi addressed some of the soldiers stationed there, saying:
The IDF is very focused on fighting Hezbollah. I believe the number of strikes over the course of the last month, the operatives killed, the rockets destroyed, and the infrastructure eliminated, is significant. The Northern Command, with all the capabilities of the IDF, is striking many of Hezbollah’s capabilities inside Lebanon before they can attack us, and at the same time, we are preparing for offensive actions inside the territory. I think this combination of very significant strikes on Hezbollah, aimed at reducing the threats to the residents in the North, including the Golan Heights, is extremely important, along with the readiness for a forward offensive in which we are heavily engaged.
On Saturday, there were ten different barrages on the North, including one targeting Safed. In an earlier barrage, a home in Shlomi was damaged. Hezbollah launched three suicide drones to the area of Ayelet Hashachar. Fortunately, no injuries were reported.
GAZA
The IDF Spokesman issued the following report on recent operations in Gaza:
On Saturday night, the IDF announced that Air Force attack helicopters, guided by the Shin Bet, Military Intelligence, and Southern Command, carried out an attack the day before yesterday (Thursday) to neutralize an immediate threat. The attack targeted a command and control center hidden within the humanitarian complex in Deir al-Balah, which was being used by terrorists from both Hamas and PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) organizations.
During the attack, several terrorists from these organizations were eliminated, including Abdullah Khatab, commander of the southern Deir al-Balah battalion of the PIJ, who led the PIJ militants from his battalion in the deadly massacre on October 7 in the Gaza envelope area.
Khatab promoted and executed terror activities against Israeli territory and IDF forces, including anti-tank fire and mortar shell launches. Also eliminated was Hathem Abu Aljadayan, commander of the eastern Deir al-Balah battalion of PIJ, who advanced and executed terror activities against IDF forces during the war.
DEMONSTRATIONS ADVOCATING TO BRING OUR HOME HOSTAGES
Today, for the first time, the demonstration orchestrated by the hostage families and the Kaplan protest calling for the removal of the current coalition, combined into one demonstration at the main entrance to the Ministry of Defense, on Begin Street.
CANDIDATES FROM BOTH PARTIES MAKE STATEMENTS RE: CURRENT WAR
This week, both major presidential candidates issued statements regarding the war. At a speech Thursday night to Jewish Republicans in Las Vegas, Donald Trump issued stark warnings, claiming that if he is not re-elected, neither the United States nor Israel would survive under the leadership of Kamala Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz. Trump criticized, “You’ll never survive” and added that Israel “will no longer exist” if Democrats win the 2024 election.
Trump referred to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, claiming that such an event “would never have happened had he been in office”, as "America, Israel, and the Jewish people were safe" during his tenure.
Former President Trump criticized Jewish Americans who support Democrats, remarking,
If you have them to support and you are Jewish, you have to have your head examined.” He reaffirmed his commitment to protecting "Western civilization and Israel" and promised to ban refugee settlements from "terror-infested areas, like the Gaza Strip.
Additionally, Trump highlighted his past travel ban, which targeted several Muslim-majority countries, claiming it successfully kept out radical Islamic terrorists.
In response to Trump’s comments, Governor Josh Shapiro stated:
I'm a proud American Jew, and I care about Israel. I also care about health care…I care about a whole host of issues. Going with this notion of dual loyalty, that Jews only have to care about Israel.. I think it's deeply offensive and deeply troublesome.
Governor Tim Walz shared the following remarks in an interview:
Well, I think first and foremost, what we saw on October 7 was a horrific act of violence against the people of Israel. They have certainly, and the vice president said it, I’ve said it, have the right to defend themselves, and the United States will always stand by that.
But we can’t allow what’s happened in Gaza to happen. The Palestinian people have every right to life and liberty themselves. We need to continue, I think, to put the leverage on to make sure we move towards a two-state solution. I think we’re at a critical point right now. We need the Netanyahu government to start moving in that direction. But I think those folks who are speaking out loudly in Michigan are speaking out for all the right reasons.
Reading both sets of two statements, it should be clear who is more pro-Israel—and in terms of rhetoric, there is no question. Walz’s statement closely reflects the traditional Democratic position and, for that matter, the longstanding U.S. stance over the last 50 years, supporting a two-state solution. The U.S. advocated for a two-state resolution, even during the Second Intifada. Americans tend to believe there is a solution to every problem; in this case, they see the two-state solution as the only viable path forward. However, many Americans often fail to fully understand the historical context and fail to recognize that only one of the two sides has consistently endorsed a two-state solution. It’s our responsibility to educate them on these nuances. Conversely, vice-presidential candidate Vance advocates cutting off all foreign aid. Vance may claim that Israel would be exempt, but it's questionable how sustainable that exemption would be.
BEN-GVIR ON TEL AVIV BEACH
On Friday, Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir decided to take his children to the beach in Tel Aviv. While there, a young woman reportedly threw sand at him. She was pursued by the police, arrested, and brought before a judge, who refused to release her for Shabbat. Despite suffering from epilepsy, the young woman was held in jail until Saturday night when she was released to house arrest for two days.
SATURDAY NIGHT ARRESTS
During the week of demonstrations demanding the government secure a deal to release hostages, 58 protestors were arrested, often for minor reasons. All were released once their cases reached a judge. There is increasing concern about the police's handling of recent protests.
IRAN
An interesting essay in Haaretz by Zvi Bar’el examines the situation in Iran. In the article titled “Facing Dire Domestic Woes, Gaza and Lebanon Fighting Have Become an Increasing Burden for Iran”, Bar’el states:
As Iran faces a deepening economic crisis, its support for the ongoing war in Gaza is increasingly viewed as a financial burden. Tehran, already struggling with high inflation and sanctions, sees the conflict’s costs rising, forcing the regime to weigh the strain on its economy against its strategic goals. Despite public rhetoric backing Palestinian groups, there is growing internal debate over the sustainability of such support.
To read more, visit Haaretz.
Terror and Antisemitism
A Pakistani man was arrested in Canada and charged with plotting a mass shooting at a Jewish center in Brooklyn, New York, on the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel. The man, believed to have been inspired by ISIS, allegedly intended to "slaughter" as many Jews as possible during the planned attack. The arrest came as part of a U.S. Department of Justice investigation, with the suspect communicating his plans to undercover agents, outlining his intent to carry out the attack in the name of ISIS. His goal was to kill numerous people in a coordinated attack on Jewish targets in New York.
The 20 year old suspect was intercepted en route to New York, with authorities stopping him in Canada before he could reach his destination. U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the charges, emphasizing the seriousness of the threat and the ongoing efforts to combat terrorism. The plot highlighted the risks of terrorist attacks timed around significant anniversaries, in this case, the first anniversary of Hamas’s deadly assault on Israel, which has continued to evoke global reactions.
A Jewish barber in Yonkers, New York, was stabbed, in what police have charged as an antisemitic hate crime. The incident occurred when Ahmed Al Jabali, a 34-year-old man, entered the barbershop on August 29 for a shave. During a conversation, Al Jabali allegedly became agitated, threatening the barber, Slava Shushakov, saying, “I want to kill you, you [expletive] Jew.” Al Jabali then attacked Shushakov with a pair of scissors, stabbing him multiple times in the arms and hands. Shushakov managed to defend himself and scare off the attacker with a knife. Al Jabali was arrested and charged with second-degree attempted murder as a hate crime and is currently being held without bail.
BUSINESS
Salesforce buys Israeli unicorn Own (formerly OwnBackup), specializing in cloud system backups, for $1.9 billion. This is a cash transaction, effectively valuing the company at $2.1 billion when including the 10% stake that Salesforce already holds. The Israeli company was founded in 2015 by Ariel Berkman, Ori Yankelev, Sam Gutmann, and Eran Cohen. To date, the company has raised approximately half a billion dollars and was valued at $3.3 billion in its last funding round at the height of the bubble in 2021. About two years ago, the company announced the layoff of 150 employees, roughly 10% of its workforce.
In addition to the founders, the major beneficiaries of the deal include the Israeli Vertex Fund and the American funds Insight, BlackRock, and Tiger Global. The Israeli fund Innovation Endeavors was one of the company's early investors.
Salesforce specializes in the development of enterprise information systems and is currently traded with a market capitalization of $235 billion. This is the largest acquisition for Salesforce since Slack in 2021, which was for $28 billion.
Own's solutions enable the secure management, storage, and backup of data, primarily for Salesforce applications and operations.
∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞–––––∞
A PIECE OF HISTORY
Sharon Reelected
In January 2003, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his right-wing Likud party achieved a resounding victory in parliamentary elections, dealing a crushing blow to the rival Labor Party. The election results reflected Israeli voters' deep skepticism about the prospects for a secure and prompt resolution to the ongoing conflict with Palestinians. Likud secured 38 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Labor, led by Amram Mitzna, suffered its worst-ever showing with only 19 seats. This outcome signaled a stark shift in Israeli politics, as voters rejected Labor's approach to peace negotiations and embraced Sharon's tougher stance on security issues.
A notable development in the election was the surprising success of Shinui, a secular anti-religious party led by Tommy Lapid. Shinui surged from 6 to 15 seats, becoming the third-largest party in the Knesset. This rise was interpreted as a sign of growing frustration among Israelis with the status quo, particularly regarding state benefits and privileges granted to highly observant Orthodox Jews. Lapid vowed that his party would "change the face of Israeli society," reflecting a desire for reform among a significant portion of the electorate.
Despite Likud's convincing win, forming a stable coalition government proved challenging for Sharon. The prime minister aimed to create a coalition that would be politically tougher than Labor's policies but softer than those of Israel's religious right. Sharon called for unity and stability in the face of ongoing crises, including the fight against terrorism and economic challenges. However, Labor leader Mitzna maintained his pre-election pledge not to join a unity government with Likud, complicating Sharon's efforts to build a broad coalition.
The election results had significant implications for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Sharon, who had vowed not to negotiate with Palestinians until terror attacks against Israelis ceased, expressed willingness to cooperate with the United States on a conditional road map for peace. In contrast, Mitzna had campaigned on a platform of renewed negotiations with Palestinians. The day after the election, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat stated that Palestinians were ready for peace negotiations with the newly elected Israeli government, setting the stage for a complex and uncertain political landscape in the region.