DAY 335 OF THE WAR: Additional Barrages From North, Army Acts in West Bank, Hostage Negotiations In Doubt, Terror in Germany
Tel Aviv Diary, Septebmer 5, 2024
Today saw another series of significant attacks from Lebanon, with six separate rocket barrages, including one involving five suicide drones. Two of the drones were intercepted and brought down while still over Lebanon.
August has been the most heavily targeted month in the north since the war began, with 1,307 projectiles launched toward Israel, averaging over 40 per day, according to Shin Bet data.
Below are the launch figures from Lebanon to Israel over the past few months:
Launches have increased by 20% over the past month and fourfold since January. The upward trend of rocket attacks is evident.
WEST BANK
This past week, the West Bank has emerged as a central front in the war on terror. Today, the Army described its efforts to combat terror in the West Bank as follows:
IDF forces from the Valley and Emek Brigade, Kfir Brigade, and Masada Unit of the Israel Prison Service, under the guidance of the Shin Bet, began an anti-terror operation night in the areas of Far'a and Tubas, as well as a separate operation in the city of Jericho in the Valley and Emek Brigade's area.
As part of the forces' activities in the Tubas area, an aircraft struck an armed terrorist cell operating in the region.
Among those killed in the Tubas strike was Muhammad Zakaria Zubeidi, a key terrorist from the Jenin area who had participated in a shooting attack in the Seam Zone and in numerous other terror activities against IDF forces in Judea and Samaria. He was the son of Zakaria Zubeidi. Several other terrorists involved in terror activities and shooting attacks against security forces were also killed in the strike.
During the forces' activities in the Far'a area, an aircraft struck armed terrorists who were throwing explosives and shooting at the forces. Masada Unit fighters eliminated a terrorist armed with an explosive device in a gunfight. Additionally, the forces uncovered roads where explosives had been planted to harm IDF forces.
Today, IDF forces detonated and destroyed an underground weapons cache near the ‘Ansar’ mosque in the Jenin refugee camp. This weapons cache was located by IDF forces a few days ago and was destroyed today by forces of the IDF Engineering Corps.
Army Radio correspondent Yanir Kozin and veteran journalist Yaron Avraham broke this story:
Exclusive Report — The clause that ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir demanded not to vote on in the cabinet – supporting the negotiating team’s efforts to reach a hostage deal:
In the heated cabinet meeting on Thursday, from which we revealed quotes on Friday night, something went unnoticed that demonstrates how much political pressure from within the government is present on the Prime Minister.
We are reporting tonight that the draft read by the government secretary in the cabinet and presented for a vote did not only include a clause anchoring the continued presence of the IDF on the Philadelphi Corridor, but also an additional clause. This clause required the ministers to decide that "the negotiating team would intensify efforts to promote a deal for the release of the hostages, while providing flexibility and room for negotiations."
Three different sources tell us that ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir opposed this wording, which implied a willingness for concessions in other areas of the negotiations, and therefore requested to vote on each clause separately or to remove the clause regarding the mandate of the negotiating team from the agenda.
In the end – based on the advice of Minister Ron Dermer – the ministers only voted on the maps concerning control of the Philadelphi Route, but not on the clause that granted flexibility to the negotiating teams, essentially allowing compromises and room for maneuver on the various issues at stake.
Bottom line: The pressure from ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir played a role in the decision on what to bring for approval and what not to, and both – separately – held meetings with Netanyahu this week. They backed his insistence on the Philadelphi Corridor, but drew stricter lines regarding other elements of the deal.
In response to Kozin and Avraham’s exclusive report:
Finance Minister Smotrich’s office stated:
As is his custom, Minister Smotrich treats cabinet discussions with great reverence and does not comment on sensitive security discussions. The Minister of Finance regrets the false and biased leaks.
National Security Minister Ben-Gvir refused to respond to their inquiry.
Moreover, Kozin and Avraham have received no response from the Prime Minister's Office at this time.
NETANYAHU’S PRESS CONFERENCE FOR ENGLISH-SPEAKING PRESS
Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference for the English-speaking media yesterday evening. Netanyahu appears concerned that growing domestic criticism from the families of hostages regarding his handling of the negotiations is beginning to gain traction abroad. The press conference did not go as well as he had hoped, with the foreign press based in the country posing challenging questions similar to those from the Israeli press.
Today, Netanyahu gave an interview on Fox News, stating that the war could end if Hamas returned all Israeli hostages. This stance marks a significant shift from his previous positions. As I shared a few days ago, according to Gershon Baskin, there is already such a deal on the table.
SPECULATION REGARDING US HOSTAGE DEAL
Reports have surfaced about the U.S. negotiating a separate deal for American citizens held hostage. I find this unlikely. Below is the report I submitted to i24News on the topic earlier today.
DESTROY HAMAS vs. SAVE HOSTAGES
My longtime friend, Yossi Klein Halevi, has an excellent Op-Ed piece today, titled: “Crush Hamas or free hostages? I choose the hostages.”
In the article, Klein Halevi states:
Prioritizing the hostages will have consequences for restoring our deterrence; prioritizing victory will have consequences for restoring our solidarity. Proponents of either position need to acknowledge the brutal price their choice entails.
Klein Halevi goes on to say,
What’s changed for me is the realization that allowing the hostages to die in captivity will also have fateful security consequences for Israel, perhaps even more devastating than not destroying Hamas.
If the hostages are left to die, large numbers of Israelis will believe they were sacrificed not for a higher security purpose like retaining the Philadephi Corridor on the border between Gaza and Egypt, but for the political “needs of an endlessly cynical prime minister seeking to hold his coalition together.”
During a visit to the Givatayim municipality, Interior Minister Moshe Arbel (Shas) made the following statement regarding the release of hostages:
The struggle to bring the hostages back home is a struggle for the Jewish identity of the state. There is no greater mitzvah than the redemption of captives. A fight for a Jewish State is not just about grocery stores; it is also about the most fundamental values of Judaism. We have a wonderful opportunity to fight together for the Jewish identity of the state—Haredim and members of the kibbutz movement alike. We all must act together and raise the voice that calls for their speedy return, alive.
RECENT PUBLIC OPINION POLLS
Here are some intriguing results from yesterday's public opinion poll conducted by Channel 11:
How much do you trust Prime Minister Netanyahu to manage the
32%: Trust 61%: Don't trust 7%: Don't know
Should we stay in Philadelphi corridor even at the cost of destroying the prisoner exchange deal, or should we leave in favor of a deal?
29%: Stay 53%: Leave 18%: Don't know
TERROR ATTACK IN GERMANY
There was an attack today on the Israeli Consulate in Munich, Germany. The attacker, a known Islamist, was neutralized. The Israeli consulate in Munich was closed for the day to commemorate the anniversary of the Munich Massacre at the Olympics.
BUSINESS
According to a Reuters report, Ilya Sutskever’s artificial intelligence company, which he founded in May after leaving OpenAI, has raised one billion dollars, according to a Reuters report. Safe Superintelligence (SSI), is focused on developing AI systems with superhuman capabilities that are also ‘safe’.
SSI currently employs 10 workers. The funds raised will be used to acquire powerful computing equipment and hire field talent. The company operates in both Tel Aviv and Palo Alto, California. Reuters noted that SSI declined to disclose the valuation at which the fundraising took place, but according to sources, it is around 5 billion dollars.
SSI investors include leading venture capital firms such as Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, DST Global, and SV Angel. NFDG, an investment partnership managed by Nat Friedman and SSI’s CEO, Daniel Gross, also participated in the round.
AI safety is a central issue that has come to the forefront with concerns that the evolving technology may be used by criminal elements or even as a 'weapon' against humanity.
SSI’s founders have deep ties to Israel. Sutskever (37) is an Israeli born in the USSR who moved to Jerusalem at the age of 5. Sutskever began his academic studies at the Open University of Israel. However, he completed all of his degrees at the University of Toronto, where he earned a PhD in machine learning under the supervision of Professor Geoffrey Hinton, one of the early groundbreaking researchers in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).
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A PIECE OF HISTORY
SHARON RE-ELECTED TO LEAD LIKUD ON A DAY MARRED BY TERROR
November 28, 2002 was an unusual day in Israel. On the one hand, the country was focused on the Likud primaries, where then Foreign Minister and Former Prime Minister Netanyahu was trying to unseat Prime Minister Ariel Sharon; on the other hand, the day was marred by several terrorist attacks.
Palestinian gunmen launched a deadly attack on the local Likud Party headquarters in Beit She’an, killing at least six people and injuring around 20 others. The attack occurred as voters participated in a nationwide primary, where incumbent Ariel Sharon was selected as Likud's candidate for Prime Minister in the upcoming January general election. Witnesses described a chaotic scene as two gunmen opened fire with automatic weapons and tossed a grenade, causing panic among voters and party workers.
The incident in Beit She’an was part of a series of attacks targeting Israelis on that day. Early that day, three Israelis were among those killed in a suicide bombing at an Israeli-owned beach hotel near Mombasa, Kenya. In a separate but related attack, assailants fired two shoulder-launched missiles at a Tel Aviv-bound airplane departing from Mombasa airport, which was carrying 261 passengers, most of whom were Israeli. Fortunately, the missiles missed their target, and none of the plane’s passengers were injured.
Ariel Sharon decisively won the Likud party leadership race, securing 59% of the vote against his main challenger, Benjamin Netanyahu, who earned 36%, with Moshe Feiglin trailing at 5%. The results were based on early returns from 20% of polling stations, solidifying Sharon’s dominance within the party. Netanyahu, the current Foreign minister, conceded defeat, calling Sharon to congratulate him shortly after the results were clear. Despite his loss, Netanyahu remained a significant figure in the Likud party, having secured over 30% of the vote, guaranteeing him the number two spot on the Likud list for the Israeli parliament.
In his concession speech, Netanyahu highlighted the importance of forming a government capable of defeating terrorism, a key issue during the campaign. Sharon, who had taken a hardline stance on security, would lead the Likud party in the coming election against the Labour party, headed by Amram Mitzna, a dovish former general. The ongoing violence between Israelis and Palestinians played a central role in shaping public opinion, with polls suggesting that Sharon’s approach to the conflict gave him a strong advantage. Sharon’s view that Israel’s struggle against the Palestinians was part of a larger global “war against terror” resonated with many Israelis who had shifted towards more hardline positions as violence persisted.
My radio show from earlier in the week.