DAY 33 OF THE GAZA WAR: Tel Aviv- A New Normal?Hostage Release? Rocket Attacks Dwindle
Tel Aviv Diary, November 8, 2023
When encountering someone in Israel, a typical greeting in Hebrew is “Mah nishmah?" which translates to “What’s up? or “How are you doing?”. Generally, the expected response is ״B’Seder״— “Ok”, (i.e., all's good). These days that instinctive expression of salutation does not seem appropriate. I’ve come up with a new reply that people seem to relate to and also adopt —“K’mo etmol” meaning, “Like yesterday”.
There's a semblance of normalcy returning in Israel, though it's different from what used to be. In Tel Aviv, traffic has picked up again. Many stores and restaurants, including HaAchim, which initially dedicated its services solely to preparation of meals for soldiers, has reopened to the public. However, the city has not completely returned to its former self. Bars, while open, see fewer patrons, and close noticeably earlier than before. Once buzzing with activity, the high-tech towers are quieter now as many employees are serving in the military reserves. Tourist buses at the Israeli museum, previously filled with sightseers eager to see its artworks, now mainly carry Federation missions visiting the families of our Hamas-held hostages (whose encampment fills the museum’s outdoor plaza).
The future remains uncertain, but there is hope that life in the city will soon return to normal, with bustling bars, overflowing restaurants, and throngs of tourists visiting the museum for its art — and not just to stand in support of hostage families.
Recently, there's been significant discussion about a potential limited ceasefire. One report suggests Hamas has requested a three-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of 20 hostages — Hamas terrorists have been holding 239 individuals in captivity for 32 days and counting! It seems highly unlikely that Israel would agree to any ceasefire agreement without assurances for the release of a significantly larger number of hostages. However, there’s deep-seated skepticism in Israel about the existence of any concrete deal. Moreover, given Hamas's history of violating ceasefires, any such agreement poses notable risks for Israeli forces.
Hamas appears to have lost complete control over the Gaza population. Today, 70,000 Gazans disregarded Hamas's directives and began to move South, as Israel advised, with Hamas unable to prevent their departure. The progression of the battle in the next few days remains uncertain. Each morning, I wake up hoping to hear news of a bold commando raid liberating a large number of hostages, but that outcome may not materialize.
A conceivable option for securing the hostages’ return could mirror the 1983 Beirut scenario —i.e., allowing Hamas leaders to escape abroad in exchange for the release of all the hostages. This scenario remains possible. So far, predictions of high operational costs (IDF soldiers lost) have been proven wrong. This strategic advantage is partly due to Israel's methodology of collapsing tunnels from above and, as I've noted before, deployment of new technology in Israeli armored vehicles that protects against assaults from RPGs and missiles.
.
Rocket attacks from Gaza have been minimal today. Hamas’s rocket supply is dwindling and being destroyed. Furthermore, their command-and-control system/structure/hierarchy is barely functioning.
Tonight, just now (midnight), there was a terror attack in the West Bank, in which two people were wounded from gunfire.
The northern border also remained relatively quiet today, with the exception of one Hezbollah anti-tank missile that wounded two people. Israel responded with an airstrike. During my appearance on i24News today, another panelist with a background in Israeli intelligence advocated for a preemptive Israeli strike against Hezbollah in the north. I disagreed. I believe it would be unwise for Israel to strike in the north while still engaged in the south — especially without U.S. approval.
Eventually, addressing Hezbollah may become necessary. However, any action in Lebanon should only be considered once Israel's supply of Tamir interceptor missiles has been replenished (and ideally, not until our laser defense system is fully operational.) The notion that a first strike against Hezbollah's missiles would be decisive is misguided. Our war plans with Hezbollah involve a rapid armored advance near Beirut to reach Hezbollah's launch pads. Until then, we would have to endure a heavy barrage of missiles. Yet, reality often diverges significantly from well-calculated plans. I strongly believe every other option should be thoroughly evaluated before engaging in a war with Hezbollah.
I briefly addressed the censure resolution against Representative Rashida Tlaib during my other TV appearance today. As I stated on air, I don't take issue with Tlaib being pro-Palestinian, and not aligning with our narrative — especially considering her Palestinian heritage. If I were Palestinian, I might not support us either. However, her use of the phrase “From the River to the Sea,” in both her video and subsequent tweet is genuinely concerning. While a US college student might misunderstand that term, her assertion that the phrase only signifies a quest for freedom between the sea and the river — rather advocate for the elimination of Israel and, by extension, my people — is patently ludicrous. She's too intelligent actually to believe that the phrase is merely a metaphor. Notably, Tlaib has become the 25th member of the House ever to be censured.
Today, the Mossad, in cooperation with Brazilian police, thwarted a planned terrorist attack targeting the Jewish community in Brazil. One terrorist was apprehended upon arrival from Lebanon.
Tonight, the war cabinet is convening at Central Command. There is growing concern that the situation in the West Bank is escalating dangerously. Just yesterday, a Palestinian Authority force was obstructed by local armed gangs from arresting a drug dealer. This month, nearly 105 Palestinians have been killed, mostly by the IDF, with five fatalities caused by settlers. At the start of tonight's meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “A group of extremists in the West Bank who take the law into their own hands can do tremendous damage to us on the international stage.”
While Israel has yet to present a post-conflict plan for Gaza, Secretary of State Blinken asserted tonight that a future Gaza would have no blockade, no buffer zone, and the Palestinian Authority would be responsible for security. It should be noted that Blinken also said that in an interim period, Israel will be responsible for security. The current government will have a hard time even discussing such a plan.
BUSINESS
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, one of Israel’s leading companies and the world's leading generic drugmaker, reported a modest increase in its third-quarter profit, largely driven by sales of its Huntington's Disease treatment, Austedo. The company saw its profits rise to 60 cents per share, excluding one-time items, up from 59 cents a year earlier. Revenue increased by 7% to $3.9 billion. In North America, Austedo sales jumped by 30%, reaching $339 million, while the migraine medication Ajovy saw an 8% rise in sales, and generic medication sales climbed by 15%.
https://x.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1722193738175336633?s=20
I watched your appearances, Marc, and you clearly have your finger on the pulse of the American citizenry. Very good analyses as well RE Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Thanks for linking the spots here.