DAY 326 OF THE WAR: Hostage Rescued From Gaza, Commemoration of Oct 7, Quiet Day on Northern Border

Tel Aviv Diary, August 27, 2024

In a country starved for good news, we finally received some today. Amid the terrible, unrelenting news we’ve faced so far in this war—and with no doubt more challenged ahead— today we had a reason to take a deep breath and smile.

One hostage, Farhan al-Qadi, a Bedouin and former security guard at Kibbutz Magen, was rescued from Hamas captivity. Al-Qadi, 54 years old and a father of 11, was abducted by Hamas on October 7. Today's hospital photos show Al-Qadi with his year-old son, who was only one month old at the time of his father’s capture. Although he has lost considerable weight, Al-Qadi is in reasonably good health. According to reports, he was discovered in a tunnel that was not guarded.

Al-Qadi reported that when Israeli troops entered the tunnel system, Hamas terrorists fled. It seems Al-Qadi was left in a blocked tunnel, potentially left to die, but Israeli forces managed to breach the tunnel and rescue him. A cabinet minister, who previously served as the chief military censor, disclosed some details of the rescue location, although as of this writing, the leaked details of the rescue’s location remain censored as operations continue in that area.

What we do know is that an elite Commando Unit has been operating underground in Southern Gaza for several days. While navigating a vast network of tunnels, the unit became aware of the potential presence of hostages in the vicinity. After a few days of searching, they found al-Qadi in a sealed room. This rescue represents the eighth hostage that Israel has successfully liberated in the past nearly eleven months.

Al-Qadi revealed that he survived on a mere slice of bread per day, and even that was not consistently provided. The sight of his clearly religious Muslim family beaming with joy as they saw their family member immediately after being rescued is a testament to Israel’s commitment to all of its citizens.

The fact that al-Qadi was not slated for release in the initial phase of a potential hostage release agreement makes his rescue all the more gratifying. Prime Minister Netanyahu was quick to call al-Qadi, who expressed his immense relief and gratitude for the rescue and thanked Netanyahu. Al-Qadi also highlighted that there are still other hostages waiting to be freed.

SO, WHAT NOW?

So, we’ve had one rare day of happiness, but questions about the future remain, particularly regarding a possible hostage deal. The professional team that was in Cairo for negotiations returned last night for consultations and is going to Doha tomorrow for further talks. A significant sticking point in these negotiations is Israel's presence in the Philadelphi corridor. Israeli negotiators have indicated that without a shift in Netanyahu's stance on the corridor, the negotiations are likely to fail. Today, Orit Strook from the Religious Zionist stated that if Israel withdraws from the Philadelphi corridor, her party will exit the government and potentially bring the government down. So, do we expect Netanyahu to agree to make this concession? So far, he has not deviated from expectations. Perhaps this time might be different.

COMMEMORATION OF 7 OCTOBER 2023

Miri Regev, chosen by Netanyahu to design and orchestrate the national ceremony for the commemoration for October 7th—stated firmly today that she will not alter her plans, despite significant criticism. Although President Herzog proposed an alternative plan, momentarily raising hopes of a possible reconsideration by Regev and the government, she remains steadfast in her decision to continue with her initial plans. The event will be filmed in Ofakim, a town that has struggled significantly to secure government aid. Meanwhile, many survivors of the October 7th attack, along with families of victims and current hostages, are planning a separate commemorative service.

MEANWHILE, IN THE NORTH…

Today has been another particularly quiet day in the North, with only two incidents of drone infiltrations. Although I can't say this with absolute certainty, I suspect that the Air Force was very successful in their attacks on Sunday morning, and Hezbollah may have responded by firing all their available munitions. This doesn't imply they have exhausted their missile stockpile; however, they would need to transport any remaining missiles to their launchers, making them vulnerable to our attacks. I hope my assessment is correct.

TRAVEL

Some airlines have resumed service to Israel. Today, Air France, which had suspended flights for only two days, and Aegean Airlines resumed operations to Tel Aviv.

BUSINESS

Cyberint

CheckPoint announces its 22nd acquisition just a month after the appointment of its new CEO, Nadav Zafrir. The Israeli cybersecurity company is acquiring Cyberint, which specializes in external risk assessment and management.

The field of external risk assessment and management has been thriving recently due to the increase in extortion and ransomware attacks on companies. The acquisition of Cyberint is estimated at around $200 million, providing a reasonable return on an investment of approximately $65 million from investors such as Viola Ventures and StageOne and private investors like former Amdocs CEO Dov Baharav and Mario Segal.

Cisco

Cisco announced yesterday (Monday) the acquisition of the AI security startup Robust Intelligence, founded by Israeli Yaron Singer, based in San Francisco. Singer established the company along with Kojin Oshiba and served as its CEO. He is a renowned researcher in the field of artificial intelligence, previously serving as a professor of computer science and applied mathematics at Harvard, where he conducted research in machine learning and algorithms.

Before that, Singer worked in the research teams of Microsoft and Google and completed a Ph.D. in computer science from Berkeley. He earned his bachelor’s degree from Tel Aviv University and served in Unit 8200. Robust Intelligence was founded based on Singer’s research. Cisco operates in the field of AI security and has developed a platform that provides protection for AI models from the development stage through deployment, including identifying and correcting errors in models. According to PitchBook, Robust raised $44 million, including from Sequoia and Tiger Global funds. Cisco (+0.1% 50.79) was one of the investors. Another early investor was Yoav Shoham, an Israeli AI scientist from Stanford, who currently heads the Israeli company AI21.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

End of Hope For Peace

After the terror attacks at the beginning of December 2001 (one in Jerusalem and one in Haifa, killing 30 people), the United States reduced its pressure on Israel to abstain from retaliatory actions and to engage in negotiations with Arafat. Sharon met with President Bush in the US during the attacks. After the meeting, William Safire interviewed Sharon. Safire asked Sharon if he was depressed by the bombings. Prime Minister Sharon replied:

Not depressed but determined. We are in a war. It is a war. Our casualties in the past week, in proportion to the population of the U.S.— it is as if 2,000 Americans were killed. It all comes down to this: Israel or Arafat.

What happens next? Monday night we will have a meeting of the whole cabinet. We will take the necessary steps to make secure the lives of our people. In the past," he admitted, "because we wanted peace, we did not do enough. I will urge the cabinet to take wider, harder steps to arrest the terrorists, to cause them casualties.

What about the idea of building a wall separating Israelis from Palestinians? "No. You can cross a wall. And we are not going to capture Zone A, the land Palestinians now control. Can Israel make peace with Yasir Arafat? "Arafat has a strategy of terror. He has assembled a coalition of terror—the Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Palestinian police, his own presidential guard." Sharon does not see Arafat as the peace partner harassed by radical elements he cannot control. "They are all together now, acting to carry out the strategy of terror. Arafat provides them all the help and support and cover and money."

On January 5th, the Israeli Army seized a ship carrying 50 tons of rockets, mines, anti-tank missiles, and other munitions. The ship was called the Karine A and carried a Palestinian crew. Arafat tried to claim it was not his ship, but Israel was able to prove otherwise. The U.S. began to understand who it was dealing with.

On January 18th, a Palestinian gunman affiliated with Fatah walked into a reception hall in Hadera and killed six people, and wounded 25. After the attack, the IDF rolled into Ramallah and confined Yasser Arafat to his headquarters.

On January 30th, 2002, Thomas Friedman published a column titled: “Dead Man Walking,” which I highly recommend reading:

Yasir Arafat is a dead man walking. Few American, Israeli or Arab leaders, not to mention Palestinians, really believe anymore that he will ever lead his people into a peace deal with Israel. The only thing keeping Mr. Arafat afloat today is that no one wants to own his demise — neither Israel nor America nor the Arabs nor his own aides wants responsibility for finishing him off. That's why this conflict has left the realm of diplomacy and entered the realm of biology — everyone is just waiting for Mr. Arafat to pass away. Too bad he eats yogurt and takes regular naps.

Mr. Arafat is a dead man walking because he shot himself — three times. First he spurned Bill Clinton's peace offer, which would have given the Palestinians a state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. And he spurned it primarily because he not only wanted a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank but he also wanted the right of return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees to pre-1967 Israel.

“It turns out Arafat wanted two Palestinian states,” notes the Middle East expert Stephen P. Cohen. “He wanted a Palestinian state for the West Bank and Gaza to be negotiated with Israel today. And he wanted a Palestinian state inside Israel that would be brought about by a return of Palestinian refugees and their soaring birth rate tomorrow. Israel was ready to give him one Palestinian state, but not two. And Arafat didn't have the courage to tell his people that.”

Second, when Mr. Arafat couldn't get his two states at Camp David, he decided to give up the monopoly of force within the Palestinian areas. A monopoly of force is the definition of a state, or a “Palestinian Authority.” Mr. Arafat gave up that monopoly so Hamas and Islamic Jihad could carry out suicide attacks against Israel to pressure Israel into accepting his terms — but in a way that he wouldn't have to take responsibility for. In doing so, Mr. Arafat undercut any notion that he could be a responsible sovereign for a Palestinian state. Who would trust a leader who gives up his authority whenever it suits him?

And finally, by importing the Ship of Fools — a boatload of advanced weapons from Iran — while he was insisting that he was abiding by a cease-fire, Mr. Arafat destroyed a central argument of Israeli doves: that Israel could accept a Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza, because it would be “demilitarized” and unable to threaten either Israel or Jordan. Says the Middle East writer David Makovsky, “Everyone hoped Arafat would be Nelson Mandela, but he turns out to be Robert Mugabe.”

This leaves us with five options. Option one: The Arab leaders will get together and try to replace Mr. Arafat as the relevant negotiating partner with Israel and offer Israelis a pan-Arab comprehensive peace in return for total withdrawal. Option two: Palestine is Jordan — Israel will invite Jordan to replace Mr. Arafat and re-assume its sovereignty in the West Bank, as the only Arab party Israel could trust there. Option three: Jordan is Palestine — Ariel Sharon will reoccupy the West Bank and drive Palestinians into Jordan. Option four: The Palestinians will oust Mr. Arafat and replace him with a new leadership that will restore Palestinian credibility with Israel as a responsible peace partner and authority. Option five: NATO takes over the West Bank and Gaza.

In the meantime, Israeli and American Jews would be well advised not to get too smug. Yes, Mr. Arafat is now discredited and isolated. But let that not obscure the fact that he isn't the only one who wanted more than one state. Because what Mr. Sharon and the Jewish right have been doing by building so many settlements in the territories is saying to the Arabs: We also want two states -- a Jewish state in Israel and a Jewish state in the West Bank and Gaza.