DAY 325 OF THE WAR The Day After Hezbollah’s Failed Attack, Ben-Gvir At It Again, Stalled Hostage Talks, Banned Palestinian Workers

Tel Aviv Diary, August 26, 2024

A day after Hezbollah's unsuccessful attack on Israel, several key insights have emerged. Firstly, it's clear that the attack was a significant failure for Hezbollah. Over the past few weeks, there has been considerable apprehension regarding a possible response from Hezbollah. Although concerns about Iran had diminished following the successful interception of nearly all their missiles in April and the subsequent deployment of U.S. forces, the potential threat from Hezbollah had remained a major concern.

Two points are clear: First, Hezbollah seems to be partially deterred from initiating a full-scale war. Hezbollah’s hesitance to provoke a wider conflict may stem from Nasrallah's apprehension of potential crippling repercussions against Lebanon, or from Iran's reluctance to deplete Hezbollah's missile arsenal, which they view as a safeguard against any attacks on their nuclear installations. Clearly, Hezbollah is not prepared to escalate to an all-out-war over Hamas and the conflict in Gaza.

THE NORTH, HEZBOLLAH & IRAN

Local communal leadership in the North immediately disparaged the preemptive operation yesterday morning in Lebanon, labeling it an attempt to “save Tel Aviv.” Hezbollah’s initial plan involved launching over 600 rockets at the North, while early reports mistakenly focused on a potential plan to target Tel Aviv with thousands of rockets, creating a false perception and sparking further criticism. Understandably, the residents of the North have legitimate grievances. While those in Tel Aviv and other central regions continue their lives with relative normalcy, nearly 100,000 people in the North have been displaced from their homes, and many more face the ongoing threat of rocket or drone attacks.

Yesterday’s preemptive attack demonstrated that while such strikes can indeed reduce the volume of rockets Hezbollah is able to launch, the group still succeeded in firing a substantial number of rockets despite the offensive. It seems possible that more targeted attacks on launch sites could further weaken Hezbollah's capabilities, and efforts to target these sites persist. Notably, attacks on the Galilee have been minimal since yesterday morning. Tonight, Hezbollah deployed several drones—some were intercepted, but at least one got through, though it caused no damage.

Meanwhile, the Iranian threat continues to be a concern. In response, the U.S. has decided to maintain the presence of two carrier groups, the Roosevelt and the Lincoln, stationed in the Middle East to assist in defending Israel if necessary

Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs with Israel Chief of Staff

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BEN-GVIR, AT IT AGAIN

Today, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, often dubbed the “National Arsonist,” stirred controversy again. Speaking on a radio show this morning, Ben-Gvir claimed to have altered the status quo on the Temple Mount, by stating that Jews would now be permitted to pray there—a change he had initiated during Tisha B’Av when he participated in prayers. He even suggested that, if it were up to him, a synagogue would be constructed on the Temple Mount. When the interviewer pointed out that Prime Minister Netanyahu had declared that the status quo remains unchanged, Ben-Gvir essentially dismissed the comment, asserting his authority as Minister of National Security to allow Jewish prayer on the site

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The Prime Minister’s office immediately released a statement reaffirming that the status quo on the Temple Mount has not changed. This incident is yet another instance of Ben-Gvir’s detrimental impact on Israel. It's important to remember that the current status quo arrangement has been in place since the Six-Day War—severe violence has often erupted following false claims by Arabs that Israel is attempting to change the status quo on the Temple Mount—under the rallying cry of “The Temple Mount is in danger.”

Ben-Gvir seems determined to incite further violence, seemingly as part of his strategy. He likely believes that escalating violence will justify a harsher crackdown on Arabs. Meanwhile, as in so many similar scenarios, Netanyahu has remained silent, opting not to take decisive actions like dismissing Ben-Gvir— a step that any responsible Prime Minister would do/consider. However, Netanyahu’s dependance on Ben-Gvir is evident, and they both know it.

GAZA

Fighting continues in Gaza, with Israel instructing residents in the Deir al-Balah area to relocate southward. The Army summarized the events of the past day in Gaza as follow:

Last night (Sunday), the terrorist organization Hamas launched a rocket from near a school area in Khan Younis toward Rishon LeTzion. Forces from Division 98 identified the source of the launch, directed an Air Force aircraft to the site, and precisely destroyed the launcher from which the rocket was fired, along with another terrorist infrastructure used by militants in the area. After the launcher was attacked, secondary explosions were observed, indicating the presence of additional rockets in the launcher that was targeted.

In the Khan Younis area and on the outskirts of Deir al-Balah, Division 98 fighters eliminated dozens of militants in the past 24 hours and discovered weapons. Additionally, in a rapid closure of the loop, the forces used a drone to eliminate a militant who had fired an anti-tank missile at our forces; there were no casualties.

In the past 24 hours, Division 162 fighters have killed dozens of militants, destroyed terrorist infrastructure, and discovered many weapons in the Tel Sultan area.

In the central part of the Gaza Strip, Division 252 forces continue to destroy terrorist infrastructure, eliminate militants, and locate underground facilities and weapons. In several different strikes, the fighters used tank fire to eliminate several militant squads operating nearby and posing a threat to them.

HOSTAGES
At the moment, the hostage negotiations are at a standstill. There was no progress in Cairo yesterday. Despite this, the Americans continue to be determined to reach an agreement and remain optimistic, claiming that both parties are more flexible in private discussions than their public stances suggest.