We do not know whether or not Hamas is committed to reaching an agreement, but if they are, the decision ultimately rests with one man: Prime Minister Netanyahu. This evening, a day after his statements regarding our minimum demands, all observers have concluded that his remarks were likely intended to decrease the chances of reaching an agreement, a tactic he has employed many times in the past.
Today, Finance Minister Smotrich publicly declared that the agreement currently under negotiation is a victory for Hamas and Sinwar. Smotrich has unequivocally stated that he will leave the government if this agreement goes forward. Conversely, opposition leader Yair Lapid stated today that if Netanyahu reaches a hostage agreement and ceasefire deal, his party will support the government and even consider joining it should Smotrich and Ben-Gvir withdraw and try to bring down the government. Lapid tentatively offered Netanyahu a full year of support for his government if he secured the hostages’ return. Netanyahu may be tempted to accept Lapid's offer now, as it seems clear that the ultra-Orthodox might bring down the government, in any case, in the fall.
I am not optimistic that Netanyahu will take Lapid’s offer. Netanyahu does not like to take political risks, and giving up his “natural” partners in order to return the hostages and bring this war to an end may be too much for him.
Smotritch, Ben-Gvir, and others from their party want the war to continue, which is wholly unrealistic. Leaving aside the hostages—which, as a country, we absolutely cannot—after nine long months, our Army needs to rest. Our reservists have been called up for nearly 200 days this year, with the average being at least 100. This country and the Army, as I have said before, do not have the capacity to sustain this war indefinitely. Nine months of combat is stretching everything beyond its limits.
Tonight, Ben-Gvir attacked Netanyahu and made the following statement:
The absurd reality in which we are floundering in Gaza and on the northern border, tying the hands of the IDF, negotiating with reckless opening conditions, on the way to a political settlement that is a complete surrender to terror on all fronts, while the Prime Minister operates as a “one-man government”—making decisions alone and sidelining his natural coalition partners, including holding cabinet meetings devoid of significant content—is unbearable. The Prime Minister must understand that a “right-wing government” is not an empty phrase, and the opinions of the government members also carry weight. We did not come to be cheerleaders in the stands. We came to make an impact. Therefore, our demand to be included in the war management cabinet, which currently stands firm and operates like a forum fixed on the outdated “conception”.
After Ben-Gvir made these statements in an attempt to become part of the kitchen cabinet (a request that Netanyahu refused), Shas Head Arye Deri is said to have told Netanyahu that the coalition would fall apart if Ben-Gvir’s actions continued. Netanyahu tried meeting with Ben-Givr this evening, but that meeting was canceled. Netanyahu’s coalition is in greater chaos than ever before tonight, and the situation remains highly unpredictable.
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THE NORTH
Today was a “routine” day in the North, with three separate rocket barrages over the course of the day.
GAZA
The IDF has expanded its operations in Gaza, reentering central Gaza City for the third time. Here is the statement released today by the IDF Spokesman:
During the night, IDF and Shin Bet forces under the command of Division 99 began counter-terrorism operations in the Gaza city area, including at the UNRWA headquarters located in the area.
The operation began following intelligence information about the presence of terrorist infrastructure belonging to Hamas and PIJ, including militants, weapons, and detention and interrogation rooms.
IDF forces have previously operated in the area, eliminating and arresting numerous Hamas militants and destroying an extensive underground tunnel network that ran beneath the compound.
At the start of the operation, the IDF announced and warned civilians about the activity in the area and established an orderly passage for the exit of uninvolved civilians.
The IDF will continue to operate in accordance with international law and against the Hamas and PIJ terrorist organizations, which systematically and cynically operate from civilian infrastructures, including UNRWA compounds, using them to plan and execute terrorist activities against the State of Israel.
BROTHER OF HOSTAGE ATTACKED IN THE KNESSET
Today in the Knesset, during a meeting of the Knesset’s Law Committee led by MK Simcha Rothman, Daniel Elgarat, brother of hostage Itzik Elgarat, interrupted the brother of another hostage who Rothman had invited to speak out against the hostage deal. Rothman, a member of the Religious Zionist Party (a person whom I personally dislike and have debated many times before his tenure as an MK), immediately called for Elgarat to be forcibly removed from the committee meeting. The video of the incident is difficult to watch:
GOVERNMENT FOMENTS INTERNAL DIVISION
Nadav Eyal, one of Israel’s most astute political analysts, posted the following tweet along with the video (see below):
In my opinion, the greatest rupture [of the social contract between the country and its citizens] is not the surprise of October 7th during the initial attack. An equally significant rupture is what happened in the first hours when people cried out to us from their shelters and the forces failed to reach them. But the most poisonous rupture is the hostility, hatred, and sometimes violence against the families of the abducted. This is the result of a continuous machine of poison and incitement, of political hatred so intense that it managed to neutralize the most basic empathy – for people who just want to see their father, their daughter, their grandfather, at home.
The families of the hostages are going through this hell; not only the endless anxiety for their loved ones but also the feeling that some of their fellow citizens, with the backing or tacit approval of the current political leadership, have turned them – the families – into the enemies of the people. The truth is that the families of the hostages have become scapegoats. They are a constant reminder of the sin that the State of Israel has committed against its citizens. They have become the lightning rods of the extreme nationalism simmering here. No eliminated terrorist or destroyed building can erase this evidence of our collective failure. A strong state and a strong society need to take the families and hold them tightly, be willing to absorb all pain and all criticism, and understand that from the recognition of failure can grow a new, better reality.
But from the denial of the disaster and from hatred towards those who suffer most from the disaster, nothing will grow – except for another, greater failure.
This afternoon, the Commander of Central Command, Major General Yehudah Fox, completed his service. During the change of command ceremony, Fox made the following remarks:
Since October 7th, the challenges have become more complex, and together with the residents and councils, through strong and serious leadership, we have worked to address them. I have said before and I stand by my words: the vast majority of the area’s settlers are law-abiding, ethical citizens who seek to live their lives and raise their families and deserve all the respect. They do this alongside constant threats of terrorism hovering over them. We saw this especially strongly in the fighting and sacrifice starting from October 7th during the “Iron Swords” war. In volunteering, running to the sound of cannons, dedication, long fighting, and paying very heavy prices everywhere.
Unfortunately, in recent months, as well as in the last week, [Jewish] nationalist crime has raised its head, and under the cover of war and the drive for revenge, it has spread chaos and fear among Palestinian residents who posed no threat. Unfortunately, the local and spiritual leadership, for the most part, did not see the threat as we did. They are deterred and do not find the strength to openly act according to the values of Judaism by which they educate their children. Even if the rioters are a minority, those who remain silent in the face of their crimes do not exclude them and their actions from the community and thus bring criticism upon everyone. This is not Judaism in my eyes, at least not the one I was raised on in my parents' home. This is not the way of the Torah. It is about adopting the enemy's ways and walking in his statutes. It was my responsibility to act. And even here, unfortunately, I did not always succeed.
AN INTERESTING POST BY THE PALESTINIAN-AMERICAN AHMED FOUAD ALKHATIB
In a recorded video speech, Hamas’s “Abu Obaidah,” the spokesman for the group’s militant wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, stated that the group’s capabilities were “in good shape” and they were “able to recruit thousands of new Mujahideen [fighters] from support ranks.” His choice to make the distinction clear about the type of new recruits, in addition to his whole address, has several implications:
“Esnaad” is the Arabic word he used for “support” to describe the recruits, which either means new fighters who are going to be involved in logistics or fighters who will form the second line in the frontline formations of the group.
This message, being the first of its kind, is a direct admission by Hamas that it has lost a significant number of its combatants during the war. While Abu Obaidah meant his statement to brag about the group’s ability to keep fighting, it is an acknowledgment that despite having an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 fighters, Hamas has to recruit new personnel to make up for losses, which must be significant enough to require thousands of new cadets. In fact, the spokesman specifically mentioned losses from “all levels” of the group’s ranks.
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