For the first time in a long while, there is a sense of optimism that an agreement with Hamas, potentially leading to a ceasefire and the release of hostages, might be achievable. We’ve been here before … I vividly remember the hope the day after President Biden presented his revised ceasefire plan and hostage release proposal, essentially expressing Israel’s position. Back then, a month ago, I felt there was a chance that a breakthrough might be imminent—a sentiment shared by many others.
The optimism following Biden’s remarks was short-lived, lasting only a day or two. Prime Minister Netanyahu initially tried to distance himself from his own proposal. Subsequently, Hamas raised so many additional conditions that it effectively amounted to a rejection of the Israel/U.S. framework.
The reasons that prompted Hamas to offer concessions now, making negotiations possible, remain unclear. Some analysts attribute Hamas’s shift to Israel’s tactical successes in Rafah, while others point to U.S. pressure on Qatar. Nevertheless, Hamas’s specific motives are largely unknown. Regardless of the reasons, it appears Hamas is now open to negotiations. Hamas’s major concession, which they have publicly confirmed, is that they will not insist in ending the war as a precondition for implementing the first stage of the hostage deal.
It looks like Netanyahu may feel compelled to engage in negotiations to secure the best deal possible. His reluctance to share details of Hamas’s response to Israel’s proposal with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich suggests as much. During a security cabinet meeting on Thursday night, these details were withheld, only to be discussed afterward at a smaller gathering of security personnel. At the cabinet meeting, Ben-Gvir threatened that he would not remain in the government if he continued to be excluded from decision-making.
Netanyahu may be prepared to go ahead with a Hamas deal, which will prompt Ben-Gvir to follow through with his threat to topple the government. However, Netanyahu will most likely act only after the current session of the Knesset ends. This will delay the next election until January 2025. The Knesset’s current session concludes at the end of the month, and the Knesset cannot be dissolved while it is not in session. The Knesset will not reconvene until after the high holidays at the end of October.
Tel Aviv Diary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
CONTINUING HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS
Mossad Chief David Barnea spent Friday in Doha, Qatar, seeking clarification on Hamas's position, preparing the way for a larger delegation to negotiate the details of the deal early this week. The negotiations promise to be challenging since the Israeli/American plan only provided a framework and left many critical issues unresolved, such as the exchange ratio of Israeli hostages for terrorists, the timing of the releases, and the exact locations from which Israeli forces must withdraw in the initial stage.
Another significant area of contention is the selection of Palestinian prisoners to be released. Hamas wants to be able to choose those released, while Israel wants veto power over certain terrorists. Finalizing these details will require time, especially given the delays in receiving responses from Sinwar, who is presumably located in some tunnel in Gaza. This protracted negotiation process could easily extend until the end of the current Knesset session, even without any delays on our part.
During the initial stage of the ceasefire agreement, all living elderly, wounded, and women are expected to be released. The precise number of hostages that are still alive remains unknown, which will undoubtedly be an aspect of the negotiations. The most challenging part of the negotiations will commence 16 days into the ceasefire when discussions on the subsequent stage begin. This next phase will include releasing all the remaining hostages, as well as a clause to end the war. I fear that since Israel has not developed a post-war strategy, it might be too late to influence the situation significantly. As a result, despite the fact that almost nobody wants Hamas to continue to rule in Gaza, they are most likely to remain in power, de facto, when the war ends. It's a disheartening reality, but it is the truth.
Finally, apart from the critical issue of the hostages—the IDF needs a ceasefire to rest, re-equip its troops, and shift from improvising to strategic planning in order to build an army capable of meeting the challenges that lie before us.
CONTINUED WEEKLY DEMONSTRATIONS
Tonight, like every Saturday night, the streets of Tel Aviv were filled with demonstrators. This week, there was a noticeable surge in attendance at the rally by Hostage Square, where the crowd sent a clear message to the government— Do not delay this deal!
Over the past 48 hours, IDF forces have continued operations across the Gaza Strip, engaging in significant combat activities and strikes against terrorist targets. The following is a summary of the statements made by the IDF Spokesperson:
In Shuja'iyya, Division 98, including the Paratroopers Brigade and Brigade 7, has been particularly active. They have eliminated approximately 100 terrorists, destroyed over 100 terror infrastructures, and located weapons caches. Engagements included encounters with armed cells, tank fire, and coordinated airstrikes. In one notable operation, Paratroopers successfully eliminated a group of Hamas terrorists who had ambushed their position, with no IDF casualties.
The Air Force has played a crucial role, conducting about 50 strikes on terror targets across Gaza in the first 24 hours and continuing to provide close air support to ground forces. This included the elimination of three terrorists with RPG launchers in Shuja'iyya and a rapid response strike that neutralized a rocket launcher that had fired at Nahal Oz.
In Rafah, Division 162 has eliminated dozens of terrorists and destroyed several booby-trapped buildings. Forces from Brigade 401 engaged terrorist cells firing upon them and conducted searches revealing underground infrastructures and weapon caches.
Operations in the central Gaza Strip by the 'Zaken' Brigade (8) under Division 99 resulted in the elimination of several terrorists, including those attempting to attack IDF forces or plant explosives.
A noteworthy operation occurred in Deir al-Balah, where the Air Force, in collaboration with Southern Command, struck a Hamas launcher placed within a humanitarian area near civilian shelters. Extensive efforts were made to minimize civilian risk, including advance warnings and real-time intelligence analysis.
Throughout these operations, IDF forces have consistently worked to uncover and destroy both above-ground and underground terror infrastructures while engaging and eliminating armed terrorist threats across the Gaza Strip.
WEST BANK
Military action took place in the West Bank on both Friday and Saturday. The Army described Friday's operations as follows:
On Friday, fighters from the Duvdevan Unit and the Haruv Reconnaissance Unit, under the intelligence direction of the Shin Bet, operated to counter terrorism in the Jenin area.
As part of the operation, the forces exchanged fire with terrorists in the area and simultaneously operated the “pressure cooker” procedure on a building where additional terrorists were barricaded. At the end of the procedure, our forces eliminated the terrorist Ma’am Hashash, along with another terrorist, and also found a pistol in the building. The two terrorists were involved in the attack on our forces during the operation in which Captain Alon Skagiu, a platoon commander in the Haruv Reconnaissance Unit, was killed.
Additionally, as part of the operation, an Air Force aircraft attacked and eliminated an armed terrorist cell identified in the area. After the operation in which Captain Alon Skagio fell, the Shin Bet conducted an intensive intelligence effort in cooperation with the IDF, which resulted in identifying those involved in the attack on our forces. On July 3rd, the terrorist Nadal Amar, who was also involved in the explosive device attack, was eliminated by the Judea and Samaria District Police’s Counterterrorism Unit.
In total, seven terrorists were killed in Jenin.
SETTLER VIOLENCE CONTINUES
Footage captured by the Yesh Din ("There is law,” a volunteer Human Rights organization) shows approximately 20 settlers from the Yitzhar settlement throwing stones at homes in the village of Madama, located south of Nablus in the West Bank. The settlers also set fire to an olive vineyard. Yesh Din reported that soldiers and defense officials did not intervene to stop the settlers from committing these acts.
THE NORTH
The last two days have been relatively quiet, with only a few daily barrages. Yesterday, two soldiers were lightly wounded in a rocket attack on Kiryat Shmona. Tonight, the IDF killed a senior engineer in the Hezbollah anti-aircraft missile force. It remains unclear whether his rank was senior enough to provoke another widespread response from Hezbollah.
Today, we woke up to an unexpected development from Iran: the election of Masoud Pezeshkian, the reform candidate. Pezeshkian has advocated for improving Iranian relations with everyone—except Israel. The key question now is: Does this election matter?
Tonight, I appeared on a panel at i24News' new Hebrew channel. While I was primarily there to discuss American politics and the prospects for President Biden, we began the broadcast with a discussion about Iran. Meir Javendanfar, an expert on Iran from Reichman University, shared his view that Pezeshkian's election will not significantly alter Iran’s international stance. According to Javendanfar, while the Iranian regime may appear more reasonable now, any major changes will likely be restricted to domestic policy.
However, the Israeli defense expert on the panel was more pessimistic, suggesting that this change would enable Iran to further its nuclear program while appearing more cooperative with the West. I hold a slightly more optimistic perspective. Although ultimate policy decisions rest with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 and reportedly in poor health, having a reformer as president rather than an extremist should be viewed positively. While this isn't cause for celebration, it does warrant cautious optimism.
LATEST PUBLIC OPINION POLLS
Last night, Channel 12 presented some interesting polls, showing the weak, diminishing support for Prime Minister Netanyahu and a mounting desire for early elections
.
FROM THE TAUB REPORT: ON DEMOGRAPHY
Fertility rates started falling in Israel in 2018. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Israel, by religion Despite a minor COVID-related fertility boost in 2021, trends returned to their pre-COVID downward trajectory in 2022. This reduction in fertility can be seen among Jews, Arabs, and Others.
In the graph: Official CBS data on trends in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) show reductions across all religious groups, though the two largest religious groups, Jews and Muslims, maintain high fertility by international standards. By 2022, the TFR of Jewish and Muslim women had fallen to 3.03 and 2.91, respectively. Each of these figures is far above replacement-level fertility, which is approximately 2.08 in Israel.
Fertility among all smaller religious groups is already much lower, and it fell further. By 2022, the TFR of Christian and Druze women had reached 1.68 and 1.85, respectively. Among those categorized as having no religion, TFR reached 1.26 by 2022. This is deep into the lowest fertility levels that have characterized much of southern and eastern Europe since the 1990s.
The observed declines in fertility up to 2022 intensified over 2023. Among Jewish and Arab women, the monthly trend in the General Fertility Rate (GFR) — the monthly number of births per 1,000 women aged 15–49 — was, respectively, 3.0% and 1.7% lower in 2023 than in 2022, which points to a continued downward trend in fertility that, as shown on the previous page, began in 2018. This downward trend appears to have continued into the first two months of 2024, especially in the Arab population.
The 1992 Israeli Knesset elections marked a significant shift in the country's political landscape, resulting in what Israelis termed a "mahapach" or upheaval. For the first time since 1973, Labor, together with other, more dovish parties, gained a majority, securing 61 out of 120 Knesset seats. This election saw over 2.6 million voters participate, achieving an impressive 77.4% turnout. Notable changes included raising the electoral threshold from 1.0% to 1.5%, which encouraged smaller parties to unite. This resulted in 5% of the votes going to parties that failed to meet the minimum threshold for Knesset representation.
Labor's victory in the 1992 election can be attributed to several key factors. The party implemented significant reforms, including the introduction of primaries that engaged over 100,000 members in selecting their Premiership and Knesset candidates. Additionally, they also strategically rebranded the party as “The Labor Party Headed by Rabin,” which proved instrumental in their success. Although Yitzhak Rabin was not a charismatic leader, he was perceived as a more appealing option than the other candidates. However, Labor’s success with these primaries also shifted the party further to the left, potentially complicating its appeal to centrist voters.
The Likud party, which had led the previous government, faced a decline in popularity. Even among some of its voters, there was a prevailing sense that the party deserved to lose. This sentiment stemmed not from disagreements over territorial policy, but more about perceived mismanagement, internal discord, and questionable integrity among its key figures. Likud's focus on settlements and territories, often at the expense of economic and welfare issues, alienated many of its traditional supporters, especially in development towns and underprivileged neighborhoods.
A notable development in this election was the emergence of new political forces. Meretz, a federation of left-wing parties, secured 12 seats and introduced a new phenomenon in Israeli politics, appealing to voters concerned with environmental and quality-of-life issues. On the right, Tzomet was a surprise success, capturing eight seats and attracting voters who favored its territorial policy and quality-of-life populism. The ultra-Orthodox parties experienced mixed fortunes, with the Ashkenazi-led United Torah Front declining while Sephardi-led Shas maintained its strength.
With the nation struggling to address so many crises at this moment, how can the government get away with having the Knesset take its usual three-month summer-fall recess? It seems very irresponsible to me, especially since it is going to give Netanyahu a way to drag the hostage-release negotiations out for months. The hostages don't have that kind of time!
With the nation struggling to address so many crises at this moment, how can the government get away with having the Knesset take its usual three-month summer-fall recess? It seems very irresponsible to me, especially since it is going to give Netanyahu a way to drag the hostage-release negotiations out for months. The hostages don't have that kind of time!