DAY 257 OF THE WAR: Coalition in Turmoil, Rafah Campaign, Army Spokesman: Eliminating Hamas Impossible, Escalating Threats in the North

Tel Aviv Diary, June 19, 2024

Overnight, Prime Minister Netanyahu acknowledged the political reality and had the “Rabbis Bill” removed from the government’s ministerial legislative committee’s agenda. However, before he withdrew the bill, Netanyahu reached out to Itamar Ben-Gvir, seeking his support and emphasizing the bill’s importance during the war. Ben-Gvir agreed to support the bill on the condition that he be allowed into the War Cabinet, but Netanyahu refused his request.

This afternoon, the Likud issued a statement declaring that Netanyahu told Ben Gvir, "Anyone wishing to be part of intimate defense briefings must prove he doesn’t leak government secrets." Three minutes later, Otzma Yehudit expressed support for the law initially presented, but not passed in November, allowing cabinet members to undergo a polygraph, but added that the legislation must also accommodate for individuals with pacemakers, (a direct jab at Netanyahu, who had a pacemaker implanted this past year).

Reports indicate that Aryeh Deri was furious when Netanyahu informed him that they would not be able to pass the Rabbis Bill. Although none of the current coalition members have an interest in toppling the government, it is difficult to see how they will be able to hold it together.

This afternoon, Minister of Economics Nir Barkat sent a letter to Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that if the current ultra-Orthodox military draft law is brought to a vote, he and a significant group of Likud Knesset members will oppose it. Given Barkat's popularity and wealth, there is no reason to doubt his resolve. This means Netanyahu has little chance of passing the new draft law. In response, Netanyahu released a statement urging unity over petty politics. Nonetheless, Netanyahu’s statement comes across as more of a desperate plea from someone who is losing control of his coalition.

NETANYAHU CRITICIZED THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

Netanyahu’s short video criticizing the U.S. administration yesterday is facing widespread criticism in Israel. The Prime Minister’s incomprehensible attack on the American administration came at a time when the issue of the delayed bombs was close to being resolved. Prior to issuing his statement, Netanyahu met with his close advisors, including Dermer and HaNegbi, who all advised against going public with his criticism. No logical reasons have been offered for Netanyahu’s outburst, making it seem like another example of him losing control.

RAFAH

After months of discussing Rafah as if its capture would decisively end the war against Hamas, it is now clear that Rafah is just another location that can be conquered. The Army has stated they are close to concluding their campaign in Rafah and expect to complete operations there within two weeks. According to the Army, Rafah’s tunnel network is more extensive than anywhere else in Gaza.

It appears that almost no civilians remain in the city, following the extended period of warnings to the population to evacuate northwest to the al-Mawasi region prior to the IDF operation. Furthermore, while some Hamas terrorists continue to fight the IDF in Rafah, most have left with the refugees to other parts of Gaza.

Tonight, Army spokesman Daniel Hagari delivered the IDF’s strongest statement to date:

Hamas is an idea; you cannot destroy an idea. Anyone who claims we can wipe out Hamas is merely throwing sand in people's eyes. Unless there is a replacement for Hamas, they will end up ruling Gaza.

The Army has been asserting what Hagari shared publicly today in closed-door meetings since December. However, as I have written before, Netanyahu refuses to discuss Gaza’s future. Tonight, Netanyahu released a statement saying that the government’s goal for the war is to destroy Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities, and that is what is expected of the Army to achieve.

THE NORTH

There was constant firing today on the confrontation line in the North, consisting of seven separate barrages, with a total of 20+ projectiles launched. Today, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi warned Hezbollah that should an all-out war breaks out, Israel possesses capabilities that they do not know about.

Here is what IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi related near the Northern border today, speaking to a group of soldiers:

We are more than eight months into a long war, and you are over eight months into defense, which is a complex defense. This defense provides a lot of security for civilians and the IDF, but we are not satisfied with it. We have many more forces in the IDF engaged in attacking Hezbollah. Today, we have already killed several of its operatives, and yesterday, Hezbollah released a video showcasing a capability we are familiar with. We are preparing and building solutions to deal with such capabilities and other capabilities that you will encounter when needed. We, of course, possess much stronger capabilities, and I think the enemy knows only a fraction of what we have and will meet them at the right time when necessary. Look, our test is to see that today we are defending, tomorrow we win, the day after tomorrow we return the residents to a much safer reality, and afterward, together with them, we rebuild and strengthen this beautiful area to be stronger than it was before the war. Great appreciation to you, keep doing excellent work. Thank you.

NASRALLAH SPEAKS OUT

This afternoon, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, delivered a speech in which he threatened to attack all strategic targets with precision weapons if the war escalates. Nasrallah even went as far as to threaten Cyprus if it allowed Israeli planes to land.