DAY 256 OF THE WAR: Attacks Resume From North, The Status of Gaza, Coalition in Disarray, Political Incitement Reaches New Lows
Tel Aviv Diary, June 18, 2024
The war in the north returned after a two-day pause this afternoon. This morning, Israel attacked a target in Lebanon. Since noon, there have been seven separate attacks, including the downing of a drone over Nahariya this evening. Hezbollah released a video this afternoon of footage seemingly captured by a drone flying over an Israeli Naval base and other locations in Haifa. Tonight, the IDF confirmed that last week, four drones infiltrated Israeli airspace. Two were shot down, one disappeared from tracking, and one they decided not to shoot down for fear of setting off alarms over large areas.
US envoy Amos Hochstein returned from Lebanon today and reported that Hezbollah stated there would be no stop to the missile and rocket fire from Lebanon as long as the war in Gaza continues.
Fighting continues in Gaza, centering on Rafah. Here is how the IDF spokesperson described the combat:
The forces of Division 162 continue to fight in the Rafah area. The combat team of the Givati Brigade eliminated several terrorists in face-to-face encounters over the last 24 hours. In one of the encounters, the force identified two terrorists armed with explosives, and an aircraft attacked and eliminated the terrorists.
The combat team soldiers of the 401st Brigade eliminated several terrorists in encounters, and during searches in the area, they found weapons, including Kalashnikov rifles, grenades, vests, and more.
The forces of Division 99 continue to operate in the central Gaza Strip against terrorist infrastructure, eliminating terrorists in face-to-face combat. A fighter jet, directed by the division forces, eliminated the head of a sniper squad in the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organization. Additionally, the combat team soldiers of the 8th Brigade identified and eliminated a squad of terrorists moving toward the forces.
During the past 24 hours, the Air Force continued to attack dozens of terrorist targets across the Gaza Strip. In one of the attacks, fighter jets eliminated two terrorists involved in anti-tank missile fire on our forces. Additionally, Navy forces attacked several targets in support of the ground forces.
REPORT FROM THE IDF SOUTHERN COMMAND
In recent days, the Commander of the Southern Front General Yaron Finkelman had an in-depth meeting to summarize the current state of the war and conditions at present in Gaza. The meeting's key conclusions were reported by Doron Kadosh of the Army Radio (Galei Tzahal.)
The Enemy Readiness Assessment is a status report composed of several components, each measuring the impact on Hamas based on specific parameters. The aggregate of all these components provides a comprehensive picture of Hamas's current situation after eight months of war. While the reports highlight notable achievements, they also reveal many ongoing challenges. Here is the full text of the report:
1. Command and Control
The IDF believes that Hamas has lost its unified command capability across the entire Gaza Strip. In other words, each local commander controls their own area without coordination or communication between them. 12 out of 24 Hamas battalion commanders have been eliminated and replaced. According to the IDF, their replacements are of lesser quality.
Sinwar and Deif, the two most important figures, have not yet been eliminated. According to sources in the Southern Command, Sinwar and Deif are making every effort to ensure their survival, understanding that their survival has broader implications for the entire organization in many ways. The IDF asserts that at no point during the war have they known the precise locations of Sinwar or Deif at any given time.
2. Rocket Launching Capabilities
The IDF estimates that Hamas has a few hundred long-range rockets left (capable of reaching from Ashdod northward). Their firing capabilities allow for salvos of up to about ten rockets. The long-range rockets are located in the central camps, Khan Younis and Rafah. In the northern part of the Gaza Strip, only short-range rocket capabilities remain. A senior IDF officer stated: “We won't reach zero rockets, but we'll get close to zero.”
3. Hamas Tunnel Network
Many numbers have been thrown around regarding Hamas's extensive tunnel system. Currently, the IDF estimates that the total length of this underground system is about 500 kilometers. So far, the IDF has discovered 25 smuggling tunnels between Rafah and Egypt. Security officials estimate there are up to 40 such tunnels, meaning not all have been located.
4. Personnel
So far, the IDF has eliminated about 14,000 Hamas terrorists out of approximately 30,000 military wing operatives. This means that approximately 15,000 operatives remain alive. Intelligence estimates suggest that about 5,000 terrorists have fled from fighting the IDF. They are labeled “deserters,” most of whom have fled from maneuvering areas to displaced areas (likely without weapons).
The “deserters” are still considered Hamas terrorists but are inactive, though the IDF still categorizes them as part of Hamas's fighting force because they can pick up weapons and resume fighting against our forces at any moment or exploit random opportunities. Thus, the active force left in Gaza now numbers about 10,000 terrorists.
5. Governance Capabilities
This might be the most interesting part of the enemy readiness assessment. In the northern Gaza Strip, the IDF estimates that about 2,000 terrorists remain. According to security officials, this is not a “sufficient mass” to maintain full control over the entire northern Gaza Strip. However, it's still a significant number that currently prevents the introduction of an alternative governing force.
According to the IDF's assessment, “We are approaching a point where a faction could emerge in the northern Gaza Strip that would pose a governance challenge to Hamas.” The question that the IDF does not address, which is left to the political echelon, is who this factor might be. The Galant plan to create “humanitarian bubbles” has not been implemented, and there are disagreements within the security establishment regarding its chances of success
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THE “RABBIS LAW”
Today, the government attempted to begin to legislate the “Rabbis Law,” which had been previously put on hold and was included as part of the coalition agreement. This law would transfer the authority to appoint rabbis from mayors and local officials to the Rabbinical Council, specifically placing control in the hands of Shas. The Rabbis Law would also create additional positions for Shas functionaries, indicating that the primary purpose of the law is to provide jobs. The law has faced opposition from a wide range of Knesset members, including several Likud MKs and many Likud mayors. The opposition stems from two main concerns: the expenditure of funds during a time of war and the belief that cities and towns should have the autonomy to appoint their own rabbis.
Netanyahu was forced to present the bill to the Knesset after Deri threatened to topple the government if the bill failed to pass. Today's objective was to secure approval of the legislation in the Knesset’s Legal Committee. However, with two Likud members and one Otzma Yehudit member withholding their support, the bill was not introduced. In response, the Likud announced tonight that it would replace its two committee members who oppose the law. Netanyahu is convening an emergency meeting with mayors tonight, focusing not on the conflicts in the South or the North but on attempting to persuade them not to oppose the Rabbis Bill. This situation, along with issues related to the draft of the ultra-Orthodox, suggests that the current government may be in trouble.
BEN-GVIR’s LAW CHALLENGED
Another component of the coalition agreement involved MK Ben-Gvir, who demanded the passage of a special law granting him direct control over certain aspects of the police force. Although the law was passed, it faced a second challenge in the Supreme Court today. A previous hearing with a smaller panel of judges had temporarily suspended the law. In today’s session, held in front of nine judges, the primary concern addressed the authority it conferred upon the Minister to intervene in police investigations — and are likely to invalidate at least that part of the law.
NETANYAHU ATTACKS BIDEN
This evening, Netanyahu released a video criticizing the Biden Administration for withholding arms— surprising many in Israel who believed the problem had been resolved. It was strange for Netanyahu to address this matter publicly, as it could suggest to our neighboring countries that Israel might not have enough bombs. Interestingly, within moments after the release of the video, Senate Minority Leader McConnell delivered an almost identical speech. Later tonight, the White House responded by stating, “They have no idea what Netanyahu is talking about.” According to the White House, there is one particular shipment still under discussion, but otherwise, the flow of arms has been continuous.
POLITICAL INCITEMENT REACHES NEW LOW
The level of political discourse has reached an all-time low. Today, Likud MK Nissim Vaturi, who is also Deputy Chair of the Knesset, referred to anti-government protesters as “a branch of Hamas.” While Vaturi was widely attacked, it is likely he will make similar statements again.
In addition to Vaturi, who apologized this afternoon, other public conversations on the situation have been going off the rails. In a highly unusual statement, the IDF spokesman issued the following statement today:
Publication of the remark by Ya’akov Bardugo stating that the IDF Chief of Staff supports the continuation of Hamas rule in Gaza is a serious and unfounded lie. The Chief of Staff has repeatedly expressed, both publicly and privately, that Hamas's control of Gaza should not be allowed to continue. It is the political echelon that determines policy regarding the United States and the Gaza Strip, and the IDF implements these directives. Other claims, as presented by the journalist [Bardugo] in recent days, are completely false and an attempt to harm the IDF and its Chief of Staff, who is leading the IDF in the fight against Hamas with great determination and significant results.
A little background… Ya’akov Bardugo appears regularly on Channel 14, a network best described as somewhere between Israel’s version of Fox News and Newsmax. Bardugo is considered one of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s primary mouthpieces. Moreover, Bardugo is seen as the heart of what is commonly referred to in Israel as the "poison machine,” aimed at anyone considered a political threat to Prime Minister Netanyahu. This malicious apparatus occasionally directed its focus at the army, accusing the IDF of being responsible for all the bad things that have happened to the country. On Sunday, after the Supreme Court's temporary halt of the Comptroller continuing to investigate the army and security services as it relates to October 7th, Yair Netanyahu (who has been living in Miami), and Bardugo retweeted a comment that questioned what the army has to hide — insinuating that there was a conspiracy by the army to bring about the October 7th massacre.
VP HARRIS AND OUR HOSTAGES
Last night, Vice President Harris hosted a showing of “Screams Before the Silence," a movie spearheaded by former Facebook/Meta COO Sheryl Sandberg about the sexual assaults perpetrated by Hamas on October 7th. Before the showing, Amit Soussana, who was released from Hamas captivity, told her story of being brutally sexually assaulted while she was held hostage. After the screening, Harris said she fears that when the rest of the hostages return, there will be many more stories like that shared by Amit
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FRANCE
In an unexpected ruling, a French court not only overturned the restrictions on Israeli attendees to the EUROSATORY 2024 exhibition in Paris but also reversed the government's ban on Israeli companies exhibiting. Although the decision is no doubt too late for this year’s exhibitors, as the show already opened on Monday, at least the court reached the right decision.
U.S. Central Command Update [June 17]
In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed four Houthi radars and one uncrewed surface vessel (USV) in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
Additionally, USCENTCOM forces successfully destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) over the Red Sea. There were no injuries or damage reported by U.S., coalition, or merchant vessels.
It was determined these systems presented an imminent threat to U.S. forces, coalition forces, and merchant vessels in the region. These actions were taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S., coalition, and merchant vessels.
ECONOMY
Foreign investors continue to disengage from Israel: Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) dropped by 55.8% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, amounting to only $1.1 billion. The data comes from the Central Bureau of Statistics, published yesterday in the national balance of payments report. The figure is a particularly troubling, continuing the trend from the last quarter of 2023, which coincided with the onset of the war. Foreign investments of $1.1 billion in the quarter are notably low, representing less than a quarter of the $4.8 billion average per quarter over the past four years. This marks the lowest level of foreign investment since the last quarter of 2021, which unusually recorded negative investments (divestments). During the last quarter of 2023, there was already a drop of about 50% in foreign investments compared to the preceding quarter, reaching $2.6 billion. This decline contributed to one of Israel's worst years for foreign investment, which was also the first year of the Netanyahu-Smotrich government — during which investments plummeted to their 2017 levels. In the first quarter of 2023, foreign investments stood at approximately $4 billion, below the quarterly average of the past four years.
BUSINESS
The startup company Finaloop, which develops an accounting platform for e-commerce companies, raised $35 million in a Series-A funding round. The round was led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, with participation from existing investors Accel and Aleph. This brings the total investment in the company since its inception to $55 million. According to Finaloop, the current funding round was conducted at a significantly higher valuation than the previous one, and all the funds were added to its treasury.
Finaloop was founded in 2020 by Lioren Pinchevsky (CEO), who was previously a partner at PwC specializing in American and international taxation and a lecturer in these fields at Tel Aviv University. Lioren experienced the technological gap when he established his own e-commerce brand, resulting in incorrect pricing decisions and difficulty in producing reliable financial reports. Finaloop's platform replaces a variety of actions previously performed by accountants with "intelligent automation." Finaloop currently serves thousands of brands in the e-commerce sector, managing an aggregate sales volume of $13 billion, including Heart & Soil, Duradry, Magic Brand, Crossnet, and Marcella New York. Finaloop employs 65 people, most of them in Tel Aviv and the rest in New York.
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A PIECE OF HISTORY
Egyptian President Sadat Visits
On November 9th, 1977, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat delivered an address to his parliament in which Sadat stated his willingness to travel to Israel to promote peace. In response, Prime Minister Begin extended an invitation, which Sadat accepted.
On the evening of Saturday, November 19th, a Boeing 707 carrying Egyptian President Anwar Sadat landed at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel. Up until the moment the aircraft’s doors opened, and Sadat appeared, many worried that the visit might be a ruse. However, those concerns were dispelled when Sadat descended the stairs. The President, all of Israel's cabinet, and former leaders were all present to welcome Sadat upon his arrival.
The following day, Sadat visited Yad Vashem and the Mosque of Omar before addressing the Knesset. In his speech, Sadat stated:
I come to you today on solid ground to shape a new life and to establish peace. We all live on this land, the land of God; we all—Muslims, Christians, and Jews—worship God and God alone. God's teachings and commandments are love, sincerity, purity, and peace.
Sadat's visit broke the psychological barrier that forbade Arab leaders from pursuing peace with Israel. Sadat's visit initiated the beginning of a process that ended the decades-long war between Israel and Egypt.
You can read the full text of the speech here:
My Weekly Radio Show
Why has Yair Netanyahu been out of country during this entire war. At age 32 shouldn’t he have been serving in the reserves and then called up for duty.